Terrorism threat level raised to ‘probable’: PM

Anthony Albanese cautioned ‘probable does not mean inevitable’, but warned Australia’s security environment had become more volatile, with potential attackers radicalised at a younger age.

Australia’s terrorism threat level has been raised from “possible” to “probable” amid concerns that surging levels of personal grievance, intolerance and online self-righteousness are driving disaffected Australians to violence.

The move follows eight attacks or disruptions of terror plots since April, with the Israel-Hamas war deemed by ASIO to be just one of the contributing factors.

ASIO domestic agency security warns fresh attacks are likely to be perpetrated by individuals, use relatively simple tactics and weapons, and occur in crowded public places.

Anthony Albanese cautioned on Monday morning that “probable does not mean inevitable”, saying there was no imminent threat of danger.

But the Prime Minister said Australia’s security environment had become more volatile and unpredictable, and potential attackers were being radicalised at a younger age.

“There are many things driving this global trend towards violence. Governments around the world are concerned about youth radicalisation, online radicalisation, and the rise of new mixed ideologies,” he said.

Mr Albanese urged Australians to “lower the temperature of debate”, declaring “social cohesion cannot be taken for granted - it must be nourished and it must be cherished”.

He singled out the Greens, in particular, for increasing community tensions through its support for long-running protests outside Labor MPs electorate offices.

“Some of that is designed deliberately to encourage a partisan response in a way that isn’t appropriate,” Mr Albanese said.

It’s the first time the terrorism threat level has been raised to “probable” since 2014, when Islamic State’s radical ideology was considered the predominant threat.

ASIO director-general Mike Burgess said the key threat now was of politically-motivated violence, driven by a range of ideologies, conspiracy theories and grievances.

“Provocative inflammatory behaviours are being normalised,” Mr Burgess said.

“This trend increased during COVID and gained momentum after the terrorist attacks on Israel and accelerated during Israel’s military response. The dynamics are raising the temperature of the security environment.”

He said terrorists were being radicalised at a younger age, and their path towards violence had become more rapid as misinformation and conspiracy theories proliferated online.

Mr Burgess said none of the terrorist plots investigated in the past year were believed to have been inspired by the israel-Hamas war, but warned the conflict and its potential spread to Lebanon could aggravate existing grievances.

The move follows the lowering of the terrorism threat in 2022 to “possible” following the collapse of Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Mr Burgess said the security environment had worsened in the years since, but the drivers of radicalisation were now different, with the “twisted” views of perpetrators being fueled by social media.

“Now, individuals are being motivated by a diversity of grievances and personal narratives. In some cases I refer to, the alleged perpetrators appeared to be motivated by extreme religious beliefs. In others, nationalist and racist beliefs,” Mr Burgess said.

“These factors make ASIO ‘s job more difficult, the threats becoming harder to predict and identify.”

He said ASIO was now reviewing its intelligence on violent extremists to “make sure we’re paying attention to the people we know about”.

“Of course, it’s the people we don’t know about that I worry the most,” Mr Burgess said.

He urged community leaders, politicians and the media not to make the situation worse through their words and actions, saying there was “a direct correlation between inflamed language and inflamed tension and violence”.