South Australia Premier Peter Malinauskas stages stunning Narrabri gas intervention

Narrabri has long been stalled but a new intervention may provide the political will to deliver a major new gas project to Australia’s east coast.

SA Premier Peter Malinauskas will fast-track the stalled Narrabri gas project.

South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has staged a stunning cross-border intervention to fast-track the stalled Narrabri gas project in NSW and taken aim at Instagram “eco purists” for ­opposing the fossil fuel and putting the transition to net-zero emissions at risk.

The onshore $4bn Narrabri field, owned by South Australia’s Santos, could fix a looming east coast gas shortage, and help back up the state’s renewables-reliant grid, but a decade of regulatory ­delays and legal challenges have thwarted progress on the development. Mr Malinauskas will tell The Australian’s Energy Nation conference on Wednesday it is now time to bring the project online, with a nod to NSW Premier Chris Minns as a leader “equally cognisant” of the need for more domestic gas supply to achieve net-zero goals.

His condemnation of anti-gas activists comes as a major new ­report showed Anthony Albanese will miss his 62-70 per cent 2035 emissions target by at least three years and will undershoot Labor’s 2030 renewable energy target by 12 percentage points due to policy shortcomings and execution ­bottlenecks.

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In his speech on Wednesday, Mr Malinauskas will condemn “Lock the Gate NIMBYs and the Greens who had been determined to block this (Narrabri) development”, while arguing anyone opposed to gas is against a renewables-dominated grid.

“The eco-purists that fill Instagram with screeds demanding an end to gas production should be careful what they wish for. And for the rest of us: are we going to let our energy policy be determined by the socials, or the science?” Mr Malinauskas will say, according to a draft copy seen by The Australian. “If there’s gas, this is the time to get it out of the ground. And Narrabri presents the most immediate and important opportunity for our nation to secure the domestic gas supply that our nation needs to navigate the energy transition ahead.”

Declaring the equation on gas is “simple”, Mr Malinauskas will say that “without gas there is no firming of our electricity system”. “And without firming, there are no renewables, let alone the 80 per cent renewable penetration we have in SA,” he will say. And to risk that at this moment in history, amidst the visible destruction of the natural world, truly ­beggars belief.”

The Australian understands Mr Malinauskas will argue that more gas is essential to keeping the Whyalla steelworks open, despite the Albanese government’s focus on renewables to transition the site into a green steel producer.

It is also understood Mr Malinauskas held talks with XRG over the Middle East consortium’s proposed but ultimately failed bid for Santos, signalling his in-principle support for the takeover if it had led to more domestic supply.

Net Zero Australia – an expert group from the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University – said Australia would not achieve a 62 per cent emissions cut until 2038 based on the nation’s current path to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. Chris Bowen’s plan for the country’s electricity system to hit 82 per cent renewables by 2030 would also miss its target by three years, with only 70 per cent of clean energy in place by the end of this decade.

     

Australia’s under-pressure manufacturing and heavy industry base will also face a raft of stress points, with average industrial energy costs rising by more than 60 per cent through to the middle of the century, with the sector responsible for half of the decarbonisation cuts.

“As Prime Minister Albanese meets other global leaders at New York City’s Climate Week this week, we think that the 2035 target and our 2050 net-zero target are at serious risk due to policy shortcomings and execution bottlenecks,” said Net Zero Australia authors Michael Brear from the University of Melbourne and Princeton University’s Chris Greig.

“These findings suggest that the government’s 2035 target will be a real stretch, and we certainly agree with the government that more than 70 per cent is effectively impossible. Indeed, we think achieving 50 per cent abatement by 2035, consistent with straight-line abatement from today to net zero in 2050, is a very ambitious undertaking.”

The Prime Minister’s plan to cut emissions by 62 to 70 per cent below 2005 levels locks Australia into being a global leader on the net-zero revolution, with an uncosted 2035 emissions target that will require more than 90 per cent of electricity to be generated by renewables.

However, the landmark study by Net Zero Australia, to be released on Wednesday, underscores the huge task ahead as the Albanese government works to both demonstrate climate ambition and deliver a clean energy revolution saddled with delays and community pushback.

The Net Zero study estimates Australia must increase the installed capacity of onshore wind and solar by around seven times and batteries by more than 25 times, while also building new gas-fired generation to support system reliability while doubling transmission capacity.

“All this means that we will have to maintain build rates across several sectors that are historically unprecedented for Australia, year-on-year for the next 25 years,” the authors said.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has left the door open to increasing government spending to hit Labor’s 62-70 per cent 2035 emissions reduction target while conceding Labor’s 82 per cent renewables target will be a “very big factor” in whether Australia successfully cuts emissions by 43 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030. Mr Bowen’s spokesman on Tuesday said the Net Zero Australia report did not model the government’s policies or its targets.

“The Treasury modelling released with our net-zero plan demonstrates that our targets are achievable and will support continued economic growth, higher living standards and employment,” a spokesman said.

Net Zero Australia said its modelling would see coal power retired early, with minimal use of only black coal beyond 2035 based on a net zero scenario. Back up for renewables will be provided by batteries and gas with no growth in pumped hydro beyond the delayed Snowy 2.0 scheme.

        

Carbon capture and storage will also play a big role in reaching net zero by 2050, the authors said, with storage capacity needing to be boosted at least 15 times including increase carbon sequestration through reafforestation while reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production and beef and sheep grazing. With Mr Albanese identifying heavy industry as a sector that needed to do more for Labor to hit its 2035 target, Industry Minister Tim Ayres will tell the Energy Nation conference that a “shift to a less carbon intensive industrial sector is an unmissable opportunity for Australia”.

Mr Ayres will use the conference to open consultation with industry leaders on the design of the $5bn Net Zero Fund, which was unveiled last week and will fall within the remit of the National Reconstruction Fund.

The plan to lower emissions in heavy industry, responsible for 14 per cent of emissions, will cover the iron, steel, aluminium, concrete, chemicals, plastics and food manufacturing sectors. “I expect to be meeting with industry leaders in mid-October to further discuss the fund’s design,” he will say.

With Treasury modelling projecting potential lucrative export opportunities from low-carbon products such as green iron, Mr Ayres will declare it is important to invest in “new low-emissions and energy-efficient industrial heat”.

“Industrial products like iron and steel using renewable energy will be highly sought after in the global low carbon economy,” he will say. “Australia’s mineral wealth, wind and solar resources, and highly skilled workforce mean it is much better placed than any other country to be the world’s supplier of choice. I want to see more electrification, more energy-efficient production processes and new technologies that make it cheaper and cleaner to power Australian industry.”