The AUKUS pact to build nuclear submarines for Australia has suffered its first major blow.
The letter to Joe Biden from two US senators warning of the potential impact of AUKUS on US submarine production proves that political support for AUKUS in Washington is not as universal as has been claimed. This has always been Australia’s greatest private fear about AUKUS.
The bipartisan letter, by Democrat Jack Reed and Republican James Inhofe, states that they are increasingly “concerned” about the ability of the US submarine industrial base to build an Australian submarine alongside US submarines.
In short, the letter sends the disturbing message that US support for AUKUS should be conditional on whether or not it impedes America’s ability to build its own submarines.
The senators imply that they have been misled about the true nature of AUKUS, which they say was “initially touted as a ‘do no harm’ opportunity to support Australia” but which now poses a risk to US submarine production.
This letter will not derail AUKUS, nor will it weaken, at least publicly, the Biden administration’s support for the pact’s central aim of helping Australia develop its own nuclear-powered submarine fleet.
Australia and Britain will continue to defend the pact, and in just three months the Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce will deliver its recommendations to the government about how this can best be achieved.
But at the same time, the concerns expressed by Reed and Inhofe carry more weight than most of their fellow senators.
Reed is the chairman of the senate armed services committee, while Inhofe, who retired from politics this week, was the top Republican on the committee when the letter was sent last month. Australia needs the support of the US congress if AUKUS is to work.
The senators’ claims about the limits of the US submarine industrial base has merit and has been supported by several recent congressional reports.
As recently as December, a report by the congress quoted the US Navy’s shipbuilding plan, which warned that the two US shipyards that build nuclear subs “will be at capacity for the next 15 years” to reach the required number of US boats. This did not take into account the construction of a submarine for Australia.
There is speculation that Australia would seek to acquire or lease several Virginia-class US submarines as a stopgap measure before constructing its own nuclear submarines in Australia. The letter from the senators basically says that this would be impossible without hampering the current production cycle of the US submarine fleet.
The complaints may become moot if the taskforce does not choose to request an early submarine from the US or if it instead seeks to acquire submarines from its other AUKUS partner, Britain. We will learn the answer to this when the government reveals its submarine plan in March.
But the letter lays bare the fact that US involvement in AUKUS is not likely to be pain free for America. How much pain is the US really willing to bear to help Australia? According to these two senators, the answer is not much.
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