Seats at risk but Liberals don’t fear teal repeat

Senior NSW Liberals believe up to four seats could be threatened by ‘teal’ independents at next year’s state election.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrotet. Picture NCA Newswire/ Gaye Gerard.

Senior Liberals believe up to four seats could be threatened by teal independents at next year’s NSW election, but say the state’s ­optional preferential voting system and the party’s performance on progressive issues will stave off a full-frontal assault.

It is believed an independent candidate is considering a tilt in the affluent eastern suburbs electorate of Vaucluse, held by Liberal MP Gabrielle Upton. Willoughby and Lane Cove were also identified as two Liberal-held seats likely to face a challenge from Climate 200-backed independents.

A senior Liberal MP said the northern beaches seat of Wakehurst – within the federal seat of Mackellar won by independent Sophie Scamps – was vulnerable to a challenge if Health Minister Brad Hazzard retired ahead of the March poll.

Liberal MPs who spoke on the condition of anonymity were confident they wouldn’t suffer the same teal wave as their federal counterparts, arguing campaign funding caps, optional preferential voting and the “Matt Kean effect” – so named because of the stance taken on issues such as climate change by the NSW Treasurer – would limit the threat to the party’s left flank.

On the other side of the aisle, Coogee, in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, held by Labor MP Marjorie O’Neill, could face a challenge from the Liberals or a high-profile independent.

Manly and Pittwater, held by moderate MPs James Griffin and Infrastructure Minister Rob Stokes, were considered safe, ­unless Mr Stokes decided not to recontest his seat. With the state election still more than nine months away, no would-be candidates are believed to have formally reached out to Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 group, nor have discussions begun internally as to the role the organisation might play in NSW.

But the success of teal independents federally – winning six seats, including three in Sydney – has left community groups such as North Sydney Independents wide-eyed about the possibilities at the state election.

After confirming Lane Cove, Willoughby and Felicity Wilson’s seat of North Shore would be possible targets, North Sydney Independents spokeswoman Kristen Lock said the group would support independents in seats where they believed MPs were not meeting community expectations.

Ms Lock mentioned Planning Minister Anthony Roberts as someone she believed was not “matching the aspirations” of his Lane Cove community, but Liberal MPs believed his near 20 years as local MP would help him withstand a threat.

Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby was considered to be most at risk from an independent, with one Liberal source saying Tim James was the “most obvious” Liberal MP they could foresee losing in March.

Mr James, a conservative, suffered a near 20 per cent swing against him when he faced independent ­Larissa Penn during a by-election in February.