Scott Morrison arrives at climate showdown after return of Barnaby Joyce

Scott Morrison cannot retreat on his climate-change pathway – yet the logic of Barnaby Joyce’s victory is defiance of net zero at 2050.

Scott Morrison takes part in question time from quarantine in Canberra on Monday. Picture: Martin Ollman

The new Morrison-Joyce leadership team confronts a diabolical dilemma.

Scott Morrison’s authority as Prime Minister is on the line because he cannot tolerate having his climate change strategy being stricken by demands from the Nationals as junior partner.

Yet Barnaby Joyce, having been elected on the premise the Nationals will reject net zero at 2050, cannot tolerate being repudiated by Morrison and being left empty-handed.

Barnaby Joyce outside Parliament House in Canberra on Monday. Picture: AAP

Joyce’s leadership victory creates a binary crisis of political authority. This is a dangerous moment for both leaders. The risk is that Joyce’s return may strengthen the Nationals but weaken the Morrison government.

Morrison cannot retreat on his climate-change pathway and his belief in the global energy revolution. Any retreat will brand him as a weak PM betraying Australia’s national and global interests. So Morrison must stay firm.

Yet the logic of Joyce’s victory is defiance of the Liberal move to net zero at 2050. Any failure to accomplish this will ruin Joyce’s authority at the outset, though Joyce gives himself an “out”, saying his policy will be shaped by party room sentiment.

Morrison and Joyce must think fast. They must invent a formula that saves the authority of both leaders. Yet any such position must be credible – good luck with that.

A slick PR job won’t work. In truth, the Coalition parties have been heading into a mutual deadlock over net zero for months – with the Liberals ready to say “yes” and the Nationals moving to say “no”. The showdown has come.