Risky business: Japan, Germany jostle in frigate race

Tokyo has established a powerful new ‘all-Japan’ committee to lead its campaign to win a $10bn frigate deal with Australia, as questions grow over the level of risk associated with its bid.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s frigate JS Mogami. The country wants to sell Australia an upgraded version of the frigate. Picture: Getty Images

Tokyo has established a powerful new “all-Japan” committee to lead its campaign to win a $10bn frigate deal with Australia amid growing questions over the level of risk associated with the country’s bid.

The move comes as Japan’s German rival, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, fears the frigate contest is shaping up as a “Ford v Ferrari” race between its proven Meko A-200 and a higher-end Japanese design that is not yet in service.

The new Japanese committee is co-chaired by the country’s Vice-Defence Minister, Kazuo Masuda, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries president Seiji Izumisawa, whose company is building the first of the Japanese navy’s Upgraded Mogami frigates.

Economic and trade officials and private sector executives have been drafted in to help strengthen the Japanese sales pitch, as the country frames its bid as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to seal its “quasi alliance” with Australia amid rising Chinese threats.

At the committee’s first meeting last week, Defence Minister Nakatani Gen declared: “We will together, as an all-Japan team, present a proposal which will be the best choice for Australia.”

The growing momentum behind the Japanese bid has TKMS worried, with the company using the car race analogy during talks with stakeholders last week. It argues its ship is a known quantity that is already operating with three other navies, posing far less risk for Australia.

Egypt's ENS Al-Jabbar, a Meko-A200 frigate built by Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. Picture: TKMS

The Albanese government has called for an off-the-shelf design that is already “in the water” after the Hunter-class frigate fiasco that has left taxpayers on the hook for what looms as one of the world’s most expensive warships.

Its decision to shortlist the Upgraded Mogami – a bigger, more heavily armed version of an in-service predecessor – has raised questions over its level of commitment to buying a mature, low-risk design.

However, Japan argues the 4800-tonne frigate is not a new ship as it shares about 85 per cent of its 3900-tonne predecessor’s design.

TKMS, which built Australia’s Anzac-class frigates, is leaning heavily on its experience constructing ships for foreign buyers and points to its success working with Australia’s heavily unionised shipbuilding sector.

Japan, which pre-emptively approved its frigate for sale to Australia last month, has no such track record.

On paper, the Upgraded Mogami is the superior ship, with a US-made 32-cell Mk41 vertical launch system, and more modern sensors and radar than the Meko.

TKMS has proposed two options – a 3800-tonne Meko-A200 design equipped with European weapons that is in service with the Egyptian navy, and the same hull with US weapons including a 16-cell Mk41 vertical launch system.

It also has an upgraded design with 32 vertical launch cells, the Meko-A210, which it wants to offer to Australia after the first three ships are built.

Alex Luck, an analyst for Naval News, said the newer Mogami was “a very, very capable design”, with a strong anti-air warfare focus.

But he said its inclusion in the tender shortlist appeared to contradict the government’s requirement for an in-service vessel.

“The Japanese are introducing that particular type for themselves, so the design, per se, exists. It doesn’t exist in the real world, but it exists as in they’re starting to build it,” he said.

“Even though all my sympathies are with the Japanese on the Upgraded Mogami, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is a very, very experienced builder, from my point of view it is very odd that they would consider a ship that is not technically even in the water yet.”

With the Japanese set to have their first Mogami in service in 2028, Mr Luck said the first Australian frigate, due for delivery in 2029, would be a virtually new ship.

“The Australian ship would be basically first-of-class, the same as the Japanese one,” he said.

He said teething issues were common for first ships, but cautioned he was not predicting a repeat of the Hunter program, which has blown out to $45bn for a cut-back order of six ships, and is running 18 months late amid extensive changes to a brand new design.

“It really depends on what the ADF is wanting in terms of changes,” Mr Luck said.

He said Japan’s lack of experience in building warships to meet foreign certification standards also loomed as “a real problem”.

“From that point of view, I’d consider the Meko the less risky proposition. There’s just fewer unknowns,” Mr Luck said.