‘Prepare now’: Millions in firing line as wild weather to smash NSW east coast
NSW residents have been told it is their last chance to prepare as the storm cell, very different to previous weather events, begins to strike the state.
Residents along a massive distance of Sydney coastline have been urged to stay indoors as a freak weather system bears down – with the worst of the storm “yet to come”.
The warning covers a 91km coastal stretch from Collaroy in the city’s northern beaches, down to Bulli – a northern suburb of Wollongong.
Residents further down the coast in Jervis Bay, Ulladulla and Batemans Bay have also been urged to keep inside their homes.
Due to the pummelling wet weather, which will bring damaging and destructive winds, anyone sheltering has been warned to stay away from windows.
More than 1200 volunteers from the State Emergency Services (SES) are already responding to the wild weather, visiting at least 900 incidents across the state since the storm began.
Conditions are expected to worsen in coming hours as rainfall totals between 50-150mm are likely.
Flash flooding is also likely.
Delivering an update on Tuesday afternoon Chief Superintendent of NSW SES Andrew Cribb said the size of the system is “enormous”.
“The system stretches as far from about the Mid North Coast, down to Bega,” he said.
“The SES has responded to over 600 calls and supported 600 people during a time of need. There’s been about 900 included in that, about 900 calls to the SES”
“It may seem pretty bad but the terrible thing is the situation is going to worsen over the course of the next 24 hours. Particularly later this afternoon and into the evening tomorrow.”
Superintendent Cribb said door knocking and possible evacuations would be taking place in at high risk areas.
“What we will be doing later today is door knocking and talking to the residents of Wamberal and one property at The Entrance North, and most probably aiming and possible evacuations.
“The majority of those properties are holiday-based accommodations so there aren’t residents in there full time, but we are working with the department of communities and justice to provide temporary emergency housing while the risk at tonight’s high tide with the large surf is expected.”
It comes as the coasts water catchments strain under the surge of rain.
According to WaterNSW the Warragamba Dam is expected to spill in the coming days with water levels already at 98 per cent.
“The timing and peak rate of a possible spill will depend on the exact timing and location of the rainfall received,” WaterNSW said in a media release.
“The Bureau’s forecast for widespread, heavy coastal rain in coming days includes less intense falls in the Warragamba catchment. This could result in the dam filling and spilling as early as midweek under the higher-range scenario of the forecast.”
WaterNSW also reported that several smaller Sydney dams — including Cataract, Cordeaux, Avon, Nepean, and Woronora — are also likely to spill.
Meanwhile, Fitzroy Falls, Tallowa, Greaves Creek, and Medlow dams are already spilling and are expected to continue.
Warragamba Dam has spilt over 50 times since 1960, including three instances so far in 2024, most recently in May.
Prepare Now
Residents across Sydney and eastern NSW are being urged to prepare now as a “bomb cyclone” looms over the coast, bringing lashings of rain and blistering winds.
A bomb cyclone or “bombogenesis” is a low-pressure system that forms quickly, causing pressure to drop significantly within a short period of time, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Monday.
On Tuesday morning, NSW SES Deputy Commissioner Debbie Platz said Tuesday was the “last opportunity” to prepare for the bomb cyclone, which was “very different to recent events that we have seen in NSW”.
“What we expect is that rain will be very rapid, it will be heavy, it will be short and sharp,” she told reporters.
“Because of that, we do need everybody to really stay prepared. We are encouraging people to please make sure that you are tying down any loose items.
“Please make sure your gutters are clean, make sure your vehicles are not underneath trees, please have a medical and emergency kit ready, and please have a plan and a communication plan for your family, friends and neighbours so that you know who to contact should you have to evacuate in an emergency.”
Destructive winds, heavy rain and large swells
A severe weather warning has been issued by the bureau for the Sydney metropolitan area, Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands and part of the Northern Rivers, Hunter, Illawarra, South Coast, Central Tablelands, North West Slopes and Plains districts.
Across the Hunter, Mid North Coast, and southern and central coastal fringes, wind speeds are expected to surpass 70km/h, and damaging gusts could reach up to 110km/h on Tuesday morning before easing in the afternoon, according to a bureau warning issued at 5am.
“Locally destructive wind gusts with peak gusts in excess of 125km/h are also possible this afternoon for exposed Sydney metro and northern Illawarra coastal areas between about Bondi and Wollongong,” the bureau said.
The low-pressure system is also expected to bring significant rain.
Isolated heavy rainfall for the southern and coastal fringe – including Sydney – is forecast to reach six-hour totals between 70mm and 90mm. Isolated totals could reach 120mm.
Minor flood warnings are in place for catchments along the Mid North Coast, encompassing the Wallis Lake, Myall, Lower Hunter, Upper Nepean, Hawkesbury, Lower Nepean, Upper Coxs, Colo, Macdonald, Northern Sydney, Southern Sydney, Parramatta, Cooks, Georges, Woronora and Snow rivers.
This also included the Wollombi Brook region, St Georges Basin and the Illawarra coast.
Skies were grey in Sydney on Tuesday morning as rain started to swell and dark clouds rolled in.
Rain began falling in the Northern Rivers on Monday night, triggering minor flooding in Casino.
Dangerous conditions to continue all week
“There’s also a coastal hazard warning for damaging surf between Seal Rocks and Batemans Bay – including Newcastle, Terrigal, Sydney, Wollongong and Batemans Bay – likely from Tuesday evening,” bureau senior meteorologist Helen Reid said.
“This may lead to coastal erosion and localised damage to coastal infrastructure. These conditions may persist into Thursday morning.”
By Wednesday, the rain will start to move south, with scattered showers and rain impacting the east coast before shifting towards East Gippsland in Victoria.
However, the wind will remain strong and gusty until at least Friday.
“Damaging winds and large seas will continue across much of the coast through Wednesday, with warnings expected to continue,” Ms Reid said.
“Conditions will continue to ease into Friday with only very light isolated showers lingering about the east coast by the end of the week.”
Weather conditions to “escalate”
On Tuesday morning, Ms Platz said the state was “well prepared” for the forecast conditions.
“Many communities had a very sunny, fine day yesterday,” she said.
“(They) went to bed, but overnight and waking up this morning, they are finding that there are some strong winds and some significant rainfalls that are happening right across the east coast, from up in the north at Coffs Harbour.
“We do expect that we will see wind gusts in pockets up to 125km/h.
“We do expect that we will see rainfall from moderate to heavy in many areas from 50mm through to 150mm, and in some pockets isolated rainfalls in excess of 200mm.”
Ms Platz warned residents to stay aware of changing conditions.
“Because this system is so widespread, what we really need everybody in the community to do is to stay really informed, particularly for their local area,” she said.
The NSW SES said there was a chance of damaging and destructive winds, warning residents in Sydney, Taree, Newcastle, Gosford, Wollongong and Port Macquarie to “prepare now”.
Ms Platz warned the community that it is “really critical” people clean their gutters and tie down or move any loose items such as trampolines or outdoor furniture that can be blown around.
Senior meteorologist Gabrielle Woodhouse said the bureau expected conditions to “escalate” into the afternoon.
“The system is dynamic and vigorous,” she said.
“As we start to see the low-pressure system deepen further today and move further south, the threat of destructive wind gusts will increase.
“What we are talking about here is destructive wind gusts around 125km/h being possible right along the coastal fringe, and we are expecting that risk is going to shift southward towards parts of Sydney and potentially parts of the Illawarra, as far south as Jervis Bay or Ulladulla even.”
Flights cancelled
As the dangerous conditions unfold, travellers arriving and departing Sydney have been warned to monitor their flights for any cancellations or delays.
A Sydney Airport spokesman told NewsWire the airport was “closely monitoring the forecasts of severe weather for NSW”.
“There may be impacts to flight schedules, and we recommend passengers check with their airline regarding the status of their flight,” he said.
An Airservices Australia spokesman said aircraft movement had been “reduced” on Tuesday morning out of Sydney.
“We are continuing to monitor the situation and will adjust operations throughout the day as appropriate,” he told NewsWire.
A Qantas spokesman said the airline was “monitoring the situation very closely and have cancellations in and out of Sydney”.
“We know delays are frustrating and will contact customers directly if there are any changes to their flights,” he told NewsWire.
He warned people to “anticipate further cancellations later in the day” as the weather conditions developed.
Virgin Australia confirmed it had cancelled 12 flights on Tuesday’s schedule, and further delays and cancellations were expected.
“Some services on Virgin Australia’s network have been impacted by adverse weather in Sydney and Newcastle today,” a spokesman said.
“The safety of our guests and crew is our top priority, and our meteorologists continue to closely monitor the weather system.
“We regret the impact of this on guests’ travel plans and are working hard to ensure they reach their destination safely and as soon as possible.”
Hundreds of calls for help: SES
By 9.30am on Tuesday, the SES had already received 800 calls for assistance, with more than 1000 NSW SES volunteers mobilised to respond to the impacts of rain and wind throughout coastal communities.
“Conditions are expected to worsen as the day progresses,” an SES statement read.
“In the Hunter and Mid North Coast, damaging wind gusts up to 125km/h are forecast today before the low tracks south towards Sydney, the Illawarra and South Coast.”
“In the Central Coast, Sydney, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and South Coast regions, damaging wind gusts could reach 110km/h throughout this afternoon.”
There are almost 1100 SES volunteers on the ground engaging in operational responses, with plans to deploy high-clearance vehicles, aviation assets and personnel into the areas most impacted by the wild weather.
NSW SES chief Dallas Burnes told the ABC that residents in parts of NSW had been ravaged by wild weather of late, with more on the way.
“It seems like it is never-ending at the moment,” he said, thanking the SES volunteers for their services.
Superintendent Burnes said the rain and wind would create rough and dangerous driving conditions, and urged residents to tie down items at their property as the blistering winds arrive.
“We are expecting flooding, so it is good to see (communities) taking preparations,” he said.
“If it is not already windy where people are living, if they could move loose items and tie things down, that would be fantastic. We don’t often see winds of 110-125km/h and that is forecast later today.”
He urged residents to cancel all outdoor activities until the conditions improve, and “avoid unnecessary travel at the moment”.
“If you come across a flooded roadway – and we will see those over the next 24-36 hours with the heavy localised falls – please don’t go into the water,” he added.
Superintendent Burnes advised those commuting home on Tuesday evening to exercise extreme caution.
“If people can leave early or delay travelling altogether, if they’re able, that would be preferable.”
Superintendent Burnes also warned door knocking operations were likely to be carried out in high risk areas.
“There is some significant coastal erosion occurring at The Entrance North and at Wamberal on the Central Coast. I expect there to be door knocking around those locations.”
More to come
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