Labor’s ‘red wall’ has crumbled: Werribee on a knife-edge

Labor’s heartland vote collapses in Werribee backlash taking Jacinta Allan and ALP to brink of historic defeat.

Jacinta Allen and John Lister speak to supporters. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Former Victorian Labor campaign chief Kos Samaras has declared the ALP’s “red wall” in Melbourne’s western suburbs has crumbled and is now a “red barb wire fence” in the wake of the Werribee by-election backlash.

The veteran Labor operative, who now runs polling and political strategy firm RedBridge, says the anti-Labor swing, which could top 10 per cent, sends a historic message to state and federal Labor.

“Not a red wall anymore,” Mr Samaras tweeted on X. “More like a red barb wire fence.”

Mr Samaras said Labor’s vote in Werribee was its “lowest primary vote in a seat they have held at any by-election in Victoria’s history”.

“If I were a Labor MP sitting in what was once a safe seat, I’d be doing one of two things: planning my retirement or treating my electorate as a critical marginal,” Mr Samaras tweeted.

Premier Jacinta Allan conceded on Saturday night the by-election was going “down to the wire” and was “too close to call”.

She has defended her leadership despite voter backlash in the traditionally safe Labor seat, which the party has held since 1979.

On Sunday morning, Ms Allan conceded there was more her government needed to do.

“We know that by-elections are tough for governments, we know that is particularly so for governments where we’re in the midst of a global cost of living crisis,” she said.

“Working people and families across the state, across the world, are looking to their governments to listen to them and do more to support them, and that’s exactly what I will do.”

Werribee By Election Coverage at Werribee Secondary College. Liberal candidate Steve Murphy at the voting station. Picture: Tony Gough

An equally dramatic by-election in the Greens-held inner-suburban seat of Prahran also played out on Saturday night with Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway pulling ahead in late counting. Liberals were growing increasingly confident on Sunday morning the party will reclaim the inner-suburban electorate.

As at 1am Sunday, latest counting in the Labor heartland seat of Werribee — held by the ALP since 1979 — showed a major anti-Labor swing was underway.

VEC counting on a two-party preferred basis had Labor leading the Liberals 50.55 per cent to 49.45 per cent in the seat where voters have expressed anger about crime, cost of living and poor local roads.

With more than 75 per cent of the votes counted, Liberal Steve Murphy was just ahead of

Labor’s John Lister on first preference votes, holding 29.04 per cent of the vote to Mr Lister’s 28.71 per cent. Mr Lister had 11,448 first preference votes and Mr Murphy 11,578. The seat will now be determined by preference flows.

Opposition leader Brad Battin said the biggest message he received from voters was that the west had been neglected by Labor.

“The Liberal Party is back,” Mr Battin declared on Saturday night.

“We are here and we are ready.”

In Prahran, Ms Westaway was firming to topple Greens candidate Angelica Di Camillo in what would be a remarkable boost to Liberal stocks ahead of the 2026 state election.

By 1am Sunday, the Liberals had secured 10,829 first preference votes (36.24 per cent) with the Greens trailing on 10,813 (36.18 per cent).

But with preference flows favouring Liberals, VEC counting has Ms Westaway looking like the eventual winner with 51.6 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to the Greens 48.40 per cent.

Ongoing preference flows are expected to favour the Liberals when counting resumes on Monday.

Retaining the outer suburban seat of Werribee is seen as a key test for the Allan Labor government leading into next year’s state election.

Congestion on roads resulting from a lack of investment in local infrastructure to support a growing population has been highlighted as a key issue by voters.

Labor chose local school teacher and CFA volunteer John Lister as its candidate, while the Liberals fielded Steve Murphy, a former police officer who works in real estate in the area.

Among the other 10 contenders for Werribee are Greens candidate Rifai Raheem, City of Whittlesea mayor Aidan McLindon who is running as an independent, and another independent Paul Hopper, a lifelong Werribee resident who won 5.9 per cent of the votes at the 2022 state election.

Werribee by Election. State opposition leader Brad Battin hands out how to vote flyers at the polling booth at Manor Lakes P-12 College. Picture: Ian Currie.

Saturday’s by-election was triggered by the retirement of former Victorian Treasurer, Tim Pallas, who won 45 per cent of the primary votes at the 2022 state election.

Mr Pallas had served much of the area, which is traditional Labor heartland, since 2006.

On Saturday evening, campaign volunteers were out in force trying to catch the last of the voters as they headed into a polling booth at Werribee Secondary College.

Darren O’Flynn, who owns an engineering and manufacturing facility, said he had voted for Mr Murphy because they thought the Liberals were “more pro business”.

Madison Couacaud, 30, said she voted for Paul Hopper because he was prioritising safety.

“He’s a member of the community as well,” Ms Couacaud said.

Meanwhile, on the other side of Melbourne, a rare Liberal-Greens showdown is underway at the Prahran by-election in Melbourne’s inner southeast.

Labor is not running a candidate in the vote, which was triggered by the resignation of Greens MP Sam Hibbins who quit the party after admitting to having an affair with a staffer.

Former Labor MP Tony Lupton is also contesting the seat as an independent, and has preferenced the Liberals.

At about 7pm, Mr Murphy arrived at Liberal Party headquarters in Werribee alongside party leader Brad Battin to resounding applause.

Moira Deeming, acting as MC, introduced the pair and praised Mr Battin’s performance as the party’s new leader.

“You leadership, and the way you have taken the west seriously, has been noticed,” Mrs Deeming said.

As results continued to trickle in at about 10pm, Deputy Liberal Leader Sam Groth declared the provisional results showed a swing away from the Labor government which he was indicative of what was to come in the 2026 state election.

“The swing that we’ve seen away from government tonight, if we replicate that in 21 months time, we will see a change of government in Victoria,” Mr Groth said.

“In the end, this by-election was about presenting an alternative to the people, and showing the people in the west that we care about them.”

While Mr Groth emphasised that the party hadn’t given up on winning the Werribee by-election, he said the “end goal” was the 2026 state election.

“It’s obvious from the votes coming in that Jacinta Allan is completely on the nose and Labor’s vote has collapsed out here in Werribee.,” he said.

“If what we’ve seen in the results today continues to follow through, we will see a change of government and the end of Labor in Victoria in November 2026.”