Written-off Liberal Sarah Henderson back in the fight

Underdog Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is in a back-from-the-dead battle to hold Corangamite.

Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson. Picture: Alan Barber

Underdog Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is engaged in a back-from-the-dead battle to hold her ultra-marginal Victorian seat of Corangamite but Health Minister Greg Hunt is facing an increas­ingly difficult task of remaining in parliament.

MORE : Federal Election 2019

Despite an uncertain electoral landscape, Labor leader Bill Shorten’s vote is broadly holding up in Victoria, with the ALP still on target to win several seats.

Party strategists have warned the vote is both fluid and patchy as local issues and the ability of ­sitting MPs to campaign come to define the election.

If an election were held today, Ms Henderson would lose Corangamite, which is notionally Labor after a redistribution, but both sides of politics are watching closely as she fights to keep the seat. Sources said Ms Henderson was running a “hyper-local campaign’’ in the Geelong/Great Ocean Road seat, individually tailored for 41 towns in the electorate.

She was deliberately trying to avoid national debates that distract from the resources poured by the Morrison government into the towns and districts.

Sources said Ms Henderson was trailing Labor’s Libby Coker by about three percentage points but that her strong campaigning had kept her in the race.

“It’s amazing she hasn’t already been written off,’’ a Liberal colleague said.

A recent local opinion poll suggesting Ms Henderson was in front has been dismissed as “highly unlikely to be right’’.

At the same time, there is increasing concern about the ability of Mr Hunt to hold Flinders, which has a margin of 7 per cent, but is under assault from Liberal-turned-independent Julia Banks and Labor. Flinders, like the normally safe Liberal seat of Higgins, is likely to go to preferences and has been the focus of intense interest from outside campaigners, including GetUp.

The Liberal Party has written off Dunkley (1 per cent Labor after the redistribution) and will struggle to hold Chisholm (2.9 per cent) in part because Ms Banks as the former member quit the seat to fight Mr Hunt.

There are three other Liberal seats on winnable margins that could fall to Labor, although Deakin (6.4 per cent) would remain Liberal if an election were held today.

Strategists on both sides concede Labor could still gain five to six seats, although a net Liberal loss of two to three seats is also possible given the vagaries of campaigning. “Not much has changed since the start of the campaign,’’ a senior Liberal said. “It is still tough in Victoria. It depends where the swings fall.’’

The wildcard continues to be the intensity of swings in the inner city compared with the outer city.

Double-digit swings have been recorded in inner-city Liberal seats as climate-change conscious conservatives have toyed with backing either the Greens or Labor.

Higgins, held by the Liberals with a margin of 10.1 per cent, is also in doubt, in part because sitting MP Kelly O’Dwyer has quit politics.

Kooyong, held by Josh Frydenberg, who increas­ingly has marketed himself as a centrist Liberal, is also facing a barrage of campaigning by left-wing groups.

But the Treasurer is tipped to survive the pressure because of a huge campaign investment, limited interest from the Labor Party and a mixed campaign from Greens candidate and lawyer ­Julian Burnside.

Mr Shorten yesterday campaigned in the Greens-held seat of Melbourne.

Greens MP Adam Bandt holds Melbourne and there are mixed views about the seat amid apparently tepid interest in the minor party from so-called progressive voters.

Some Labor activists believe the party can regain the seat but this view is not universal in the ranks.