With every group and in every state, Dutton’s chances of unseating Anthony Albanese are shrinking

Anthony Albanese attends lunch with community members in Box Hill, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Member for Chisholm Carina Garland, Labor’s candidate for Menzies Gabriel Ng and members of the Asian Business Association of Whitehorse. Picture: Mark Stewart / NewsWire

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Peter Dutton appears to be paying a heavy political price for the Coalition’s ditched back-to-work mandate.

Political polling can tell you what but not always why.

So when the Coalition’s slump over the past month has been driven largely by a decline in support among female voters, it tends to become self-explanatory.

The anti-work-from-home policy was undoubtedly a significant contributor to Dutton’s problems.

Hence the decision to quickly jettison it in the first week of the campaign.

Contrary to the view held by some that the Coalition has long had a problem with women, the previous Newspoll quarterly analysis showed the Coalition with a 51-49 per cent two-party-preferred lead over Labor among women.

Primary vote support for the Coalition among female voters strongly favoured the Coalition for the first quarter of the year, with 38 per cent backing the Coalition compared to 29 per cent for Labor.

This has now been reversed, with Labor ahead 35 per cent to 33 per cent on primary vote support with a 54-46 per cent two-party-preferred lead.

This is what pollsters would say is a dramatic shift.

So what happened? Donald Trump happened, and so did this policy.

But this doesn’t account for the decline in support among women since the election was called.

As the latest Newspoll survey shows, women are now significantly more favourable toward Labor on cost of living than men.

The critical 35-49 age group – often described as Middle Australia or the swinging middle – is where it matters most.

Liberal candidate for Dunkley Nathan Conroy, Peter Dutton and Senator James Paterson as they visited a petrol station in Carrum Downs in the electorate of Dunkley in Melbourne Victoria. Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

And on the new analysis of Newspoll surveys since the election was called, it is this group that has swung sharply toward Labor.

Younger voters have followed a similar trajectory. This is probably not surprising. But as previous survey analysis shows, younger women were the Coalition’s primary problem.

What should be ringing alarm bells for Dutton is the movement away from the Coalition in the mortgage belt, and presumably suburban mums as well.

The last quarterly analysis – based on Newspolls between January and March – showed Labor with a slight advantage of 51-49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

Prior to this, the Coalition had squared the ledger at 50-50 among these change agents. This was a period when the Coalition’s primary vote nationally had reached 40 per cent and it began to budge ahead of Labor.

There is now a clear division on voting intention between the under-50s and the over-50s.

The other piece of the jigsaw puzzle is what has been happening in Victoria.

The assumption that the Coalition stood to win four to five seats was based on an undeniable collapse in support for federal Labor. Until now.

What was a 4 per cent swing to the Coalition in Victoria at the start of the year has been reduced to 1.8 per cent, based on the last election result.

If Labor can limit the swing on May 3 to this, its path to majority government becomes a lot smoother.

Based on the demographic and state assessments, there appears to be no happy hunting ground anymore for Dutton and the Coalition.

Labor has increased its position in every mainland state since the start of the campaign, including Dutton’s home state of Queensland.

Albanese has also turned negative personal numbers into positive ones across a range of demographics and jurisdictions.

While this is an analysis of what has been rather than what is to come – it’s reflective rather than predictive – what it does show is that Dutton’s problems are not isolated.