Election 2025: Muslim Votes Matter’s ‘strategic’ move to flip Labor seats

Influential political campaign Muslim Votes Matter has thrown a curveball into a ‘razor-thin’ contest in Gough Whitlam’s old seat, directing voters to the Coalition in a flex of its electoral muscle.

Anthony Albanese, centre, alongside Anne Stanley at a January funding announcement in southwest Sydney. Picture: Simon Bullard.

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A pro-Palestine political movement aiming to elect Greens and independents has dramatically intervened to help the Liberal Party in Gough Whitlam’s old seat of Werriwa, in a “strategic” move to flex its electoral muscle to the ALP and punish Labor in a handful of marginal electorates.

Werriwa is quickly becoming the Liberals’ last hope of snaring one of the ALP’s marginal southwest Sydney seats, which is held on a 5 per cent margin, and it is one of only four electorates where Muslim Votes Matter is preferencing the opposition over the government.

In Werriwa, MVM’s how to vote card direct voters first toward the Greens and Libertarians, and then the Liberals before Labor. It’s a similar tactic being deployed in WA Labor-held marginals Cowan and Tangey, and Jim Chalmers’ Queensland seat of Rankin.

Labor strategists have grown optimistic that incumbent Anne Stanley will hold off the Liberals’ Sam Kayal, but the final result could come down to just a thousand or so votes. Peter Dutton recently launched his party’s campaign in the seat, illustrative of how seriously it is vying for the electorate.

MVM is one of two separate political pressure groups from Australia’s Muslim community that emerged in mid-2024, instigated by anger over the government’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

It has published how to vote cards for each division, with volunteers already descending onto pre-polling stations at its target seats across the country, and its decision to preference Mr Kayal over Ms Stanley could, given how close Werriwa is shaping up, help flip the seat to the Liberals.

The move is in contrast to the method eventually taken by The Muslim Vote: a totally separate but similar organisation that has focused more on supporting two independent candidates in Watson and Blaxland.

Those candidates ended months of speculation about a possible deal with the Liberals, preferencing Labor incumbents Tony Burke and Jason Clare above the Coalition, but which simultaneously makes the route to topple the ALP pair more difficult.

Peter Dutton, right, and Sam Kayal in April during a campaign stop at a Werriwa petrol station. Picture: Thomas Lisson

The placing of Mr Kayal ahead of Ms Stanley has angered Labor insiders, who said it went against the group’s supposed ethos, but MVM national spokesman Ghaith Krayem said the organisation’s aims had been clear since its establishment, telling The Australian it had identified Werriwa as a seat it could have a “strategic impact” in.

“Werriwa fits well within our intentions,” Mr Krayem said, noting that about 12 per cent of the electorate were Muslim Australian voters.

“To hold incumbent MPs to account for their response – or a lack of – to (what’s happening in) Gaza, our ability to mobilise our community and for the ability to demonstrate that strategic impact we can have.

“And those three (intentions) dovetail into Werriwa, which we think is on a knife edge.”

Mr Krayem said MVM was not specifically “anti-Labor” and that it its strategy was to hold incumbents to account, particularly in divisions with large Muslim communities where it felt it would have greater impact.

He said the group had “very consciously” placed the Liberals higher than Labor in the seat for “strategic purposes” and that it believed its flipping would have a “net impact of zero”, with the group hoping to help flip some Liberal seats.

Muslim Votes Matter spokesman Ghaith Krayem in March in Melbourne. Picture: David Crosling

MVM and its preferences, particularly appearing to target Cowan incumbent Anne Aly, the House of Representatives' sole Muslim woman, drew criticism from Mr Burke earlier this week, who said he was also “surprised” that it had preferenced Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots above himself in Watson.

The move to direct preferences first to Mr Kayal has angered Labor figures, who accused the movement of forgoing objectivity to succumb to its blind anger toward the ALP.

“This decision is baffling and raises serious questions about the organisation’s credibility,” one senior Labor source said.

“Anne Stanley has consistently spoken out for Palestine – in parliament, at public events and on the floor of conference.

“Yet (MVM have) preferenced Sam Kayal, who’s been silent on the issue. Anyone who thinks he’ll speak up in the Liberal Party room is kidding themselves.”

Lebanese Muslim community leader Jamal Rifi has been critical of the dual ‘Muslim vote’ campaigns and launched his own movement to barrack for Mr Burke and Mr Clare.

Recent material authorised by the southwest Sydney doctor took aim at the Opposition Leader’s comments around Palestinian refugees and Lebanese migrants, and his party’s unbridled support for Israel.

Lebanese Muslim community leader Jamal Rifi. Picture: John Feder

“Australia’s Lebanese community understand that MVM is nothing but stooges for the Greens and who have been used to (that party’s) benefit rather than our community’s, whose values don’t align with ours,” he said.

“We will never risk Peter Dutton as prime minister unless we get a public apology from him for insulting our forbearers and inviting a war criminal (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) to our shores.

“Mr Kayal should know that we (members of the Lebanese Muslim community) won’t vote for anyone associated with Peter Dutton.”

Liberal strategists believe the chances in Werriwa are “positive”, albeit conceding any victory would be “very close”.

Senior sources pointed to Mr Dutton launching the party’s campaign within the division as reflective of how serious and hard the party was approaching the seat with a “quiet confidence” Mr Kayal could get “across the line”.

However, those on the ground remain more apprehensive, with a particular concern about previous Liberal voters of the Muslim faith deserting the party, both for Mr Dutton’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war and his refusal to issue a public apology for 2016 comments about Lebanese Muslim immigration.

Some insiders said the result would likely be decided by only up to about 1000 votes and that Muslim voters could help Ms Stanley over the line, despite MVM’s direction of preferences toward Mr Kayal ahead the Labor incumbent.