Polling goes Coalition’s way, Newspoll data shows

The first campaign Newspoll has the LNP in the same position as the past five governments.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison greets waiting media at a garden centre in outer Melbourne yesterday. His government has started the election campaign exactly as the past five governments have — behind but with an early rise in support. Picture: Gary Ramage

The first Newspoll survey of the 2019 election campaign has the Coalition in the same position as the past five governments: ­behind in two-party preferred support when the election was called, and that includes three that went on to win.

The Coalition has also started the campaign as all previous Coalitions have in the past five elections: a rise in primary support in Newspoll, and, despite losing two elections, the Coalition’s primary vote has always risen through the election campaign.

Scott Morrison’s successful ­appeal to disaffected Coalition voters who moved to One Nation since the 2016 election, compared with Malcolm Turnbull, was also revealed.

It was Turnbull’s weakness in drawing back lost conservative voters that was a large part of why he was removed as Liberal leader after losing 30 consecutive Newspoll surveys to Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

The latest Newspoll survey shows the ALP ahead of the ­Coalition on a two-party preferred basis, 52 to 48 per cent, the ­Coalition and Labor’s primary vote both rising to 39 per cent and One Nation’s falling from 6 per cent to 4 per cent.

An analysis of Newspoll surveys taken in the past five elections shows that all five incumbent governments started behind in two-party preferred terms. The Coalition won in 2004, Labor under Kevin Rudd won in 2007, Julia Gillard lost a Labor majority in 2010 but led a minority government, Tony Abbott led the ­Coalition back in 2013 and Turnbull won in 2016 with a majority of just one.

 

Overall, three wins and two losses for incumbent governments that started from behind on a two-party preferred basis.

On the primary vote, the ­Coalition’s support has improved through the campaign by between one and five points while the ALP’s has dropped in every campaign, partly because of unrealistically high ­expectations for Rudd in 2007, from between two and four points.

This Newspoll survey has shown the Liberal primary vote up one point and Labor up two since the election was called.

Polling history shows the ­Coalition’s primary vote always rises, Labor’s has always fallen and the Coalition needs a much higher primary vote — 42 or 43 per cent — than Labor to win or hold government.

So, the Morrison government has started the 2019 election campaign exactly as the past five governments have — behind in the Newspoll two-party preferred figures — and, like all Coalitions since 2004, immediately improving on primary-vote support.

This Newspoll survey explains in large part why Turnbull is no longer Liberal leader apart from the excuse of Turnbull’s failure on his own measure of losing to Labor in 30 Newspoll surveys in a row a year ago.

The two numbers that matter most in this survey to explain Turnbull’s political vulnerability are the Coalition’s primary vote of 39 per cent and One Nation’s 4 per cent.

It’s not just that the 39 per cent is the highest Coalition primary vote since last July, while Turnbull was still Liberal leader, but also that One Nation is at its lowest primary vote since the September 2016 election.

Under Morrison as Liberal leader, the Coalition is benefiting from a fall in One Nation support and is slowly improving its position. In three Newspoll surveys since the beginning of March, the Coalition’s primary vote has risen three points from 36 to 39 per cent as One Nation’s has fallen three points from 7 to 4 per cent.

While the Coalition’s primary vote was 39 per cent last July, One Nation’s support was 7 and Labor’s was 36 per cent. As the Coalition’s vote fell in ensuing surveys, support for One Nation and “others” jumped.

What’s more, that July high for the Coalition came on the same weekend of the by-elections Turnbull declared were a test of leadership between him and Shorten.

The results in the Queensland by-election in Longman showed Coalition support crashing to just 29 per cent, Labor up to 39 per cent and One Nation claiming a massive 15 per cent of the primary vote. Conservative voters had turned against the Turnbull government.

Yesterday’s Newspoll demonstrates that Morrison, prepared to sign off on the Adani coal development, produce a surplus budget and start to pay down national debt, can pick up disenchanted conservative voters while maintaining growth in primary support.