Victoria’s zero Covid-19 cases mission impossible

Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton says he ‘can’t say’ whether it’s possible for the state to reduce community coronavirus transmission to zero cases a day.

Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton. Picture: Getty Images

Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton says he “can’t say” whether it’s possible for the state to reduce community coronavirus transmission to zero cases a day, as the state government deliberates over the length of a looming lockdown extension from Thursday.

As of Thursday, Melburnians will be four weeks into their sixth lockdown of the pandemic.

Monday’s 73 new cases were down on Sunday’s 92, which represented the highest daily caseload since September 2, 2020, when there were 112 cases.

It took Victoria 61 more days to achieve sustained zero case days, on November 3, 2020, at a time when cases were on a downward trend and the state was not dealing with the much more infectious Delta strain of coronavirus.

Asked on Monday whether zero was still possible, Professor Sutton replied: “I can’t say.” However, he said there was room for improvement in the areas of community engagement, compliance with restrictions, testing and vaccination coverage, all of which would help drive infections down.

“We can do better in each and every area,” Professor Sutton said.

“We know more people could come forward for AstraZeneca (and) people could follow the public health restrictions even more strongly.

“We know dropping our guard from time to time just gives Delta that opportunity to break through and cause another workplace and another family outbreak.”

Asked if his advice to government was still that Victoria needed to achieve zero, he said: “We have to do what is feasible. We’re not going to achieve the impossible if it becomes impossible, but the ­aggressive suppression strategy is … doing your utmost to keep those numbers down, to manage the health system, to get to zero if you possibly can.”

Professor Sutton left the door open to easing some restrictions, such as reopening playgrounds or releasing parts of regional Victoria where there have been no cases.

“Everything is up for review whenever we come to this point of reconsideration,” he said.

“We have to bear in mind that transmission can occur in all kinds of settings. It’s a balancing act. We want to make sure that people can sustain those behaviours. We want to make sure that mental health of adults and kids are supported to the fullest extent we can, within the lawful constraints of lockdown that’s supporting our health system and the health system response.”

Based on the seven-day rolling average of vaccinations, Victoria is set to have 70 per cent of residents aged over 16 vaccinated by October 31, and 80 per cent by ­November 17.

Of Monday’s 73 new cases, only 24 were confirmed to have been in isolation for the duration of their infectious period. There were 21 new mystery cases yet to be linked to known outbreaks.

Of 49 people in Victorian hospitals with coronavirus on Monday, 15 were in intensive care, of whom 11 were on ventilators.

Of 800 active locally acquired cases in Victoria on Monday, 170 (21 per cent) were in children aged 0 to 9, 124 (16 per cent) were in those aged 10 to 19, 167 (21 per cent) were in people in their 20s, and 150 (19 per cent) were in people in their 30s. This means 611, or 76 per cent, of Victoria’s current cases were in people under 40, most of whom were not eligible for a vaccination until recently.