Victorian reopening plan on track despite surge in new Covid-19 cases

Victoria’s vaccination rate means case numbers aren’t translating to hospitalisations or deaths at nearly the rate predicted by Burnet Institute modelling.

Queen Victoria Market shoppers in Melbourne’s CBD mask up as Victoria breaks the 2000 mark for daily virus cases. Picture: Sarah Matray

Daniel Andrews says Victoria will stick with its road map out of lockdown and begin unwinding health restrictions when 70 per cent of adults are vaccinated next week, despite a sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 infections recorded.

While a record 2297 cases were reported on Thursday – higher than the forecast by the Burnet Institute modelling that the road map was based on – hospitalisations are lower than expected.

An analysis by The Australian comparing the NSW and Victorian Delta outbreaks also shows the latter state with a lower proportion of hospitalisations despite higher case numbers, at a point where a higher percentage of the population is vaccinated.

The Burnet Institute, which is due to update its modelling this week, predicted a seven-day ave­rage of 1960 cases by October 25, with 1666 people in hospital and 360 in ICU. As of Thursday, the seven-day average had reached 1806, but there were only 706 hospitalisations and 147 in ICU.

Eleven deaths reported on Thursday brought the state’s toll for the current outbreak to 125.

Thursday marked the 66th day of Victoria’s outbreak, which began amid short-lived celebrations of zero cases being reported on August 4. On the 66th day of the NSW outbreak – August 30 – that state had a seven-day average of 1018 cases, with 840 people in hospital, of whom 137 were in ICU. There had been 93 deaths.

While comparisons between the two states are imperfect, and there is generally a lag between people testing positive and being hospitalised or dying, the statistics point to those infected in the NSW outbreak in late August being more than twice as likely to require hospital treatment as their Victorian counterparts. As of Wednesday, 87.15 per cent of Victorians aged 16 and over had received one dose of Covid vaccine, and 62.65 per cent were fully vaccinated.

On August 30, 68.16 per cent of people in NSW aged 16 and over had received one dose, and just 37.07 per cent of the state’s population were fully vaccinated.

The Premier said case numbers were becoming less relevant as Victoria approached the 70 per cent full vaccination target set to be reached as soon as next Friday, when Melburnians would be released from lockdown.

“Once we’re open, which is sometime next week, we’re going to hit 70 per cent, then the case numbers do become less relevant,” Mr Andrews said.

Asked whether there was a danger of reopening being delayed because of the surge in case numbers, Mr Andrews said he’d struck a deal with Victorians, and they had kept up their end of the bargain. “We have, fundamentally, a very important agreement with the Victorian community. You get vaccinated and we will open up,” he said. “You know, we do what we say. We’re going to be opening up because people got vaccinated in record numbers.”

Only 11 per cent of Victorians in hospital with Covid-19 on Thursday were fully vaccinated.

Some 46 per cent of Thursday’s 2297 cases were in people aged under 30, and 63 per cent were aged under 40.

There were 406 cases reported in NSW – and six deaths – while the ACT recorded 46 infections.

NSW is expected to hit 80 per cent vaccine coverage at the weekend, with more restrictions to ease on Monday.

Sonya Bennett, the commonwealth’s deputy chief medical ­officer, said the number of infections in Victoria was “disappointing but not unexpected”.

“We don’t expect case numbers are going to rise exponentially, but we’ll probably continue to see high case numbers for some time, and then expect to see them come down as vaccination continues to increase daily, which is what we’re seeing.” she said.