Victorian Liberal leader Michael O’Brien’s ‘days are numbered’

A senior Victorian Liberal figure has predicted that Michael O’Brien will be rolled as Opposition Leader before the next state election.

Victorian Opposition Leader Michael O'Brien. Picture: Mark Stewart

A senior Victorian Liberal figure has predicted that Michael O’Brien will be rolled as Opposition Leader before the next state election, but says a challenge is unlikely to be mounted until the middle of 2022, just months ­before the November poll.

Other Liberals have indicated there is an appetite in Canberra for a more immediate change of leadership on Spring Street, with Mr O’Brien’s lack of popularity seen as a drag on the federal party’s vote ahead of a possible federal election later this year.

The comments follow the ­exposure of tensions between the federal Liberals and their state colleagues through the leaking of a WhatsApp message to the Herald Sun, in which Mr O’Brien slammed the Morrison government’s move to rip up the ­Andrews Labor government’s Belt & Road Initiative.

The senior Liberal said Mr O’Brien “won’t be leading us into the next election”.

“There will be a change, but there is no hurry. Hawke took over from Hayden the day Fraser called the election,” they said.

“Bracks took over from ­Brumby about six months before the election. There will be a change but it won’t happen until the ­middle of next year.”

One theory gaining traction within the party is that a late change in leadership would help shield the successor from attack from the government.

“The date (election day) is fixed. Why would you burn someone off and have them subjected to the abuse of the other side for almost two years, when you can get them with just six months to go, when the economy will be in a lot worse condition?

“The drums are clearly beating, there are a lot of forces at work. He (O’Brien) won’t be there at the next election.”

Multiple Liberals said there was an emerging view within the party that one option needing to be considered was drafting a new leader from outside the current parliamentary team, with insufficient support currently for any single candidate among those ­already in parliament.

While several serving MPs backed Mr O’Brien as leader, ­another Liberal described those ­supporting him as a “mutual ­mediocrity society”. Yet another said Mr O’Brien’s performance “speaks for itself” in highlighting the need for change.

“At some point the partyroom’s going to realise it, because the community and the Liberal Party already have,” they said.

“There is a broad church of people wanting change, but there’s little agreement on who or when,” said one Liberal.

“The situation is reflective of the malaise across the Victorian party, whether it’s the backroom, state or federal.”

Factional tensions have also been heightened following veteran federal MP Kevin Andrews’ loss of preselection for his seat of Menzies on Sunday, despite public backing from Josh Frydenberg, with some in Mr O’Brien’s opposing faction describing the leak of the opposition leader’s text message as “retribution from the feds” for Mr Andrews’ 181-111 vote loss to barrister Keith Wolahan.

Mr O’Brien declined to comment on the WhatsApp message sent to state colleagues late last year, in which he said of the Morrison government: “Either they kill the BRI and remove a state election issue or they don’t kill it which undermines our campaign. Either way, the Feds look after themselves at our expense again.”

“I’m not going to discuss that,” he said on Wednesday. “All I’m saying is I don’t want there to be any confusion. I want Victorians to be crystal clear about where I stand on Belt and Road. I oppose it because it is a bad deal.”