Victorian Labor quandary after minister’s seat is abolished

While the Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission’s latest redistribution includes wins and losses for both sides of politics, party strategists view it as an overall win for Labor.

Andrews government minister Martin Pakula. Picture: David Geraghty

ALP powerbrokers in Victoria are expected to negotiate a plan to enable senior Andrews government minister Martin Pakula to remain in parliament, following confirmation his seat will be abolished.

While the Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission’s latest redistribution includes wins and losses for both sides of politics, party strategists viewed it as an overall win for Labor.

The government is likely to lose voters in several eastern suburban marginal seats that it picked up from the Liberals in 2018, but the three new seats in Melbourne’s rapidly growing suburbs are expected to be Labor gains. These include Laverton in the west, Kalkallo in the outer north and Pakenham in the outer southeast.

Mr Pakula’s southeastern suburban seat of Keysborough has been split four ways, with his electorate office set to end up in Premier Daniel Andrews’s neighbour­ing seat of Mulgrave, and the rest of the seat divided between Clarinda, Dandenong and Mordialloc.

“So what the hell happened to Keysborough?” Mr Pakula tweeted soon after the commission’s final redistribution decision was tabled in Victorian parliament on Thursday morning.

The Industry Support and Recovery and Major Events Minister later issued a statement saying while he was disappointed his electorate had been abolished, “I’ll now commence discussions with colleagues about finding an appropriate alternative electorate and continuing the important work of reinvigorating business, tourism, our events sector, the racing industry and international trade.”

It is not immediately obvious which seat is likely to be found for Mr Pakula, given all neighbouring seats are held by Labor MPs wishing to recontest the November 2022 election.

A move to the upper house is considered unlikely, given Mr Pakula’s faction is already struggling to find a safer seat for Attorney-General and northern Victorian MLC Jaclyn Symes.

One option being considered would involve Clarinda MP and former Adem Somyurek factional ally Meng Heang Tak being asked to stand aside.

Opposition transport infrastructure spokeswoman Louise Staley had a win with the revision of plans that would have seen her gain Labor-voting territory on the edge of Ballarat, and lose more conservative regional areas on the western edge of her seat of Ripon.

Health Minister Martin Foley also had a victory, with abandonment of plans to move the suburb of St Kilda from his seat of Albert Park to Green MP Sam Hibbins’s neighbouring seat of Prahran.

Former attorney-general Jill Hennessy’s seat of Altona has lost the suburb of the same name, but she is expected to remain in the renamed seat of Point Cook.

The redistribution came as former Liberal frontbencher John Pesutto announced he would run for preselection in his former seat of Hawthorn, after retired school principal John Ormond Kennedy won the seat for Labor by 330 votes in 2018.

Victoria’s electoral boundaries are generally reviewed after every second election to ensure the population is spread evenly across each seat, with an average of 48,625 people per electorate when the latest changes apply.

The redistribution will see more than 900,000 voters moved into different electorates.