Victorian election: Risk-averse leaders shun voters

Both Daniel ­Andrews and Matthew Guy are avoiding spontaneous inter­actions with the public in favour of set-piece announcements.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, left, and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy in 2018. Picture: AAP

The Victorian election shapes as one of the most stage-managed in history, with both Daniel ­Andrews and Matthew Guy avoiding spontaneous inter­actions with the public in favour of set-piece announcements.

Ahead of the issuing of writs on Tuesday evening for the November 26 election, the Victorian Premier opted not to hold a press conference on Melbourne Cup day and instead headed to flood-hit Shepparton. But there were no streetwalks to meet flood victims, thus avoiding the kind of reception former prime minister Scott Morrison ­received in bushfire-devastated Cobargo when locals refused to shake his hand.

Instead, Mr Andrews headed to FoodShare, one of several food charities which recently received a $750,000 grant as part of the ­Andrews government’s flood-­relief package.

The Premier and Emergency Services Minister Jaclyn Symes thanked staff and watched the Cup with them in their warehouse, posting on social media that the race was “the only thing that’ll stop the hard work of Victoria’s flood recovery volunteers”.

Mr Guy opted for a policy ­announcement at a solar panel and battery storage business in Cheltenham, in the bayside Labor-held seat of Bentleigh, pledging grants of up to $1m for community organisations as part of a $100m “net-zero renewables community projects fund” to ­install solar panels, batteries and supporting infrastructure.

The party leaders have adopted an approach that has seen them avoid unscripted contact with the public in a trend that is likely to continue to polling day.

Labor holds 55 of the 88 seats in Victoria’s lower house, and the Coalition just 27, giving Mr Guy the unenviable task of needing to win 18 to achieve majority government.

But with polls showing Labor and Liberal primary votes at a nadir, strategists in both major parties view an expansion of what is currently a six-member crossbench as probable.

The loss of 11 seats would see Mr Andrews forced to form a minority government.

The Greens currently hold three inner-city seats and are hoping to win Richmond, Albert Park and possibly Northcote.

The rest of the crossbench is occupied by three rural independents, two of whom are recontesting, with a three-way contest between Labor and both Coalition parties for the Latrobe Valley seat of Morwell in Gippsland in ­Victoria’s east.

 

The Wodonga-based seat of Benambra in the state’s northeast is being targeted by Cathy McGowan-backed independent Jacqui Hawkins, who whittled Liberal Bill Tilley’s margin down to 2.45 per cent when she ­contested it in 2018.

In Melbourne’s inner east and bayside, Climate 200-backed ­independents are vying for seats such as Kew, Hawthorn and Caulfield, which overlap those won by teal MPs at the May federal ­election.

Several high-profile independents are also running on Labor’s alleged neglect of health and transport infrastructure in outer suburban and historically safe ALP seats in Melbourne’s west such as Melton and Point Cook.

In the outer-southeastern suburbs and Mornington Peninsula, the Coalition is hopeful of picking up seats it has traditionally held and unexpectedly lost in 2018, such as Bass and Nepean.

Nine Liberal seats – or a third of the Coalition’s total – are held by a margin of 1 per cent or less, ­including the Mornington Peninsula/Westernport seat of Hastings where Labor now has a notional 0.4 per cent margin, and frontbencher Louise Staley’s seat of Ripon, west of Ballarat, where Labor has a notional 2.8 per cent margin.

Conversely, Labor has four seats where its margin against the Coalition is less than 1 per cent.

Both major parties released television ad campaigns on ­Tuesday.

The Liberals are targeting Mr Andrews over the 801 Covid deaths linked to his government’s hotel quarantine failures, 70 deaths linked to hospital ramping, lost learning opportunities for children during the pandemic, and Victoria’s health system crisis.

A separate ad features Mr ­Andrews promising no new taxes ahead of the 2014 state election, and accuses him of having ­introduced 43.

Labor is targeting Mr Guy as having been “outright rejected” by Victorians at the last election, only to return as leader with a plan to “cut funding” for infrastructure.

The ad accuses Mr Guy of having been a senior member of a previous Coalition government which “waged war on our ambos” and “cut $1bn from TAFE”.