John Ferguson
Victorian Election 2022: Crushing win for Labor as Daniel Andrews brings Liberals to their knees
This is a momentous result for Labor and a catastrophic outcome for the Liberal Party.
Labor’s statewide primary vote has fallen significantly but it has held on in the grumpy western suburbs and made further inroads in the former Liberal heartland in the east.
The swings that have been largest against the government have occurred in safe seats, chiefly in Melbourne’s west.
Several once safe or notional heartland Liberal seats are likely to have fallen once early votes are counted.
There have been huge swings in Melbourne’s east, with the Liberals down 12.1 points in Ringwood, 15 points in Bayswater and 8.2 points in Glen Waverley.
The Greens and the Nationals appear to have been significant beneficiaries of community angst in the inner city and regions.
The Greens could have at least five MPs in the Victorian Parliament, in a move that would transform the way politics is conducted in Victoria.
The Nationals have picked up three seats that were not on the mainstream radar although privately the party’s leadership had been optimistic of making ground.
The large number of early votes means it is difficult to make definitive calls on how many seats Labor will hold in the 88 seat parliament.
However, a workable majority is almost guaranteed. This makes the Labor victory one of the greatest in its history.
The party will be worried about the big anti-government swings in the west but elated by the way Melbourne’s east has continued to turn to Labor.
This really started in the 2002 Steve Bracks landslide and it will cause heartburn for the federal opposition as the ALP gets further resources to play with in the east.
The Liberal loss has been made worse by the defeat of could-be Liberal leader John Pesutto in the inner seat of Hawthorn to a teal.
The teals appear likely to have won two seats.
The fracturing of the Liberal vote in Victoria is an enormous issue for the party across Australia.
It is hard to see how the Liberals will be able to win in 2026 after such a poor result.
There will – and should be – bloodletting in the Liberal Party.
The Liberals are on their knees.
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