Victorian Covid-19 lockdown: $100m weekly bill to keep casuals afloat

About 200,000 casuals have likely been unable to work through Victoria’s fourth lockdown and could be eligible for the government’s new Covid disaster payment, at a maximum weekly cost of $100m.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, left, Agriculture Minister David Littleproud and Scott Morrison in Canberra on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

About 200,000 casuals have likely been unable to work through Victoria’s fourth lockdown and could be eligible for the government’s new Covid disaster payment, at a maximum weekly cost of $100 million.

Scott Morrison on Thursday revealed a national approach to supporting Australians in commonwealth-recognised virus “hot spots” who have lost income as a result of restrictions.

Applicants who declare they remain without work for longer than seven days as a result of health measures will be eligible for payments of $500 or $325 for each week the restrictions continue, depending on whether immediately preceding the lockdown they worked more or fewer than 20 hours, respectively. Those ­receiving commonwealth income support or special pandemic leave from their employers will not be eligible, nor will workers with more than $10,000 in savings.

Permanent employees are also eligible for the payments, but casual workers have been the most vulnerable to losing work through the pandemic, and therefore most likely to need support.

Josh Frydenberg on Thursday said Treasury and the Finance Department were “working the numbers” on an estimated cost, noting it was a “demand-driven” program. The Treasurer volunteered there were half a million casual workers in the metropolitan Melbourne area.

Analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data suggests about 240,000 of those roughly 500,000 casual workers are employed in industries most heavily affected by social distancing measures, ­including 101,000 in hospit­ality, 94,000 in retail, and 19,000 in arts and recreation.

There are also an estimated 17,000 casuals employed in businesses providing “other services”, including the likes of hairdressers and masseurs, and 6000 in rental, hiring and real estate services.

Based on an assumption that 85 per cent of those workers, or 200,000 Australians, have lost all their hours during the Victorian lockdown, extending the Covid disaster payments would cost the government between $65 million and $100 million over the week.

Relief extended to eligible permanent workers would be ­additional to that.

KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the Covid payments provided an “additional safety net” to offset the economic fallout from the lockdowns, and that the measure was an “absolutely reasonable response” to ­alleviate the impact.

Dr Rynne, who is based in Melbourne, warned that the lingering damage would come via lower confidence and an increased wariness about travel. “We had started to believe that lockdowns like this were behind us and we could begin to make forward bookings – this just reinforces the fact uncertainty still exists.”