Victoria is on track for a Covid-19 vaccine surplus

The state will have enough Pfizer and Moderna by the end of October to vaccinate 100 per cent of those aged 12 and over — and have more than half a million doses left.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews on Monday. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Victoria is set to receive enough Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of October to fully vaccinate 100 per cent of its population aged over 12 – and have half a million doses left over.

Premier Daniel Andrews said on Monday that the government had received an “indication” that its Pfizer supplies in the fourth week of October would match those of the third week “but we haven’t had it confirmed”, ­leaving him unable to reduce the ­interval between doses from six weeks to three weeks.

“You can’t bring forward ­second doses if you do not have those second doses either in the fridge or absolute clarity that they’re coming,” Mr Andrews said.

His lack of certainty is at odds with an assurance on Friday from National Covid vaccine taskforce head Lieutenant ­General John Frewen that Australia would receive all nine million Pifzer doses scheduled for October.

Even without the 692,137 Pfizer doses scheduled to arrive in the final week in October, ­Victoria has sufficient supply to exceed its target of ­having 70 per cent of those aged 16 and over fully vaccinated by October 26 and 80 per cent by November 5.

The state has a current inventory of about 650,000 Pfizer doses, and is scheduled to receive another 3,157,190 doses of Pfizer and 824,762 doses of Moderna over the course of ­October, adding up to 4,631,952 doses of mRNA vaccine.

Taking into account that 448,863 Victorians awaiting second doses have had Astra­Zeneca, the state requires 3,572,851 doses to fully vaccinate 100 per cent of those aged 16 and over.

Another 509,348 doses of mRNA vaccine will be required to fully vaccinate the 12- to 15-year-olds, meaning Victoria requires 4,082,199 doses of mRNA ­vaccine to fully vaccinate 100 per cent of those aged 12 and over.

This leaves a surplus of 549,753 mRNA doses if every Victorian aged 12 and over is ­vaccinated, and a surplus of 1,059,101 doses if only those aged 16 and over were to be ­considered.