Vaccines could see Victorian hospitalisations fall as daily infections peak

Hospitalisation rates in Victoria should start to fall as the vaccine roll out speeds up.

Victorian acting chief health officer Ben Cowie. Picture: Sarah Matray

The hospitalisation rate for Covid-19 cases in Victoria is falling even as daily infections have risen rapidly, with renewed hope that rising vaccination coverage will shield the healthcare system from being overwhelmed as the state reopens.

Deakin University chair in ­epidemiology Catherine Bennett said the proportion of positive Covid-19 cases being hospitalised was about 3.6 per cent, well down on the peak of 5-6 per cent at the ­beginning of September.

“There could be a lag (but) it looks as though there is an easing in terms of that relationship,” Professor Bennett said.

“(Daily) case numbers are less complete (and) hospitalisations are the hard outcome measure that we worry the most about.”

On Thursday, there were 564 cases in hospital in Victoria, with 115 in intensive care and 74 on a ventilator. About two-thirds were unvaccinated, with 27 per cent having ­received their first shot.

Professor Bennett said hospitalisations could increase this week, after a spike in community transmission believed to be linked to the Melbourne protests and ­illegal grand final celebrations.

At least one Victoria Police officer is in hospital in a serious condition after contracting Covid-19 while working at a protest against mandatory vaccination, according to the union.

Police Association Victoria secretary Wayne Gatt said the hospitalised officer had worked at recent protests against mandatory vaccination but it was unclear where they had contracted the virus, saying another 25 officers from the same station had been stood down but were vaccinated and had tested negative.

A Victoria Police spokeswoman said a number of officers and support staff had been quarantined after testing positive for Covid-19, declining to confirm the exact number due for operational reasons. “Our utmost priority and focus is to ensure our members’ safety and welfare and, as such, that all impacted officers are supported, offered assistance and guided through any and all health, safety and quarantine measures.”

President of the Australian Medical Association Victoria Roderick McRae said easing restrictions and the return of students to classrooms would cause infections to rise and increase pressure on the healthcare system.

“Week three of October is absolutely a perfect storm (with) a huge influx of cases while the hospitals are already full and increased movement of schools opening,” Dr McRae said.

“The Burnet model was predicting a terrible figure … for the end of October that was based on information pre-protest marches and the grand final,” he said.

“And (the government) is determined to open schools in a chaotic manner at the end of October. Healthcare workers are concerned about their vaccination coverage waning (too).”

Before the protests or grand final weekend, the Burnet Institute predicted a peak in seven-day average daily diagnoses of 1400-2900 would occur between October 19 and 31.

There were 1638 new Covid-19 cases recorded in Victoria on Thursday, the second-highest daily caseload ever recorded in Australia after Tuesday’s 1763.

Acting chief health officer Ben Cowie said there had been a daily increase in people in hospital who needed assistance to breath from 54 to 74, saying hospitalisations usually increased about a week to 10 days after a jump in cases.

“When we see days of 1700 cases, we are not just worried about that because of the case number that is concerning … the real worry is about 80 or 90 people are going to end up in hospital down the track,” he said.

Premier Daniel Andrews said he expected the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 to grow, ­increasing pressure on the state’s health system.

“There is every reason to believe we are going to see more people in hospital than we have already (and) more and more cases,” he said. “That is why it is so important that everybody gets vaccinated as fast as possible.”

With 84.4 per cent of Victorians aged 16 and above partially and 55 per cent fully vaccinated Professor Bennett said fewer hospitalisations should start to occur.