US-UK rivalry could go nuclear over new subs fleet

Australia faces the prospect of its oldest and newest ‘best friends’ descending into a rivalry over which ally will supply the nuclear submarine replacement.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Australia faces the prospect of its oldest and newest “best friends” descending into a rivalry over which ally will supply the nuclear submarine replacement after the dumping of the $90bn French contract over both the short-term and the long-term.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is trying to balance the biggest defence decision of his leadership on the nuclear submarine against the competing demands of the UK and the US to deliver a revolutionary nuclear submarine fleet to Australia to offset China’s ­aggression.

Despite early assumptions the new nuclear submarine fleet – which will replace the proposed French diesel submarines due to go into service in the 2040s – would be a US nuclear submarine, there is still the prospect it could be a UK boat.

The formation of the new three-party security agreement between Australia, the UK and US (AUKUS), which resulted in the dumping of the French contract for conventional submarines, has started a strategic, commercial and defence challenge between the UK and the US.

There is no guarantee the process, expected to be closer to 12 months than 18, will opt for the initial favourite of a US Virginia-class submarine in the short term or a more sophisticated US version in the long term.

There is also the issue of supplying interim submarines in Australian waters, perhaps as early as just three years away, and how those submarines would be sourced from either the US or the UK.

The key elements in the consideration of the interim submarine supply – after the consultation period – include the conditions under which they will arrive in Australia.

Mr Morrison has left open the prospect of whether the UK or the US would fulfil the contract on the long-term delivery of the submarines and has opposed the idea of “leasing” submarines from the US.

The British government has already floated the idea of sending extra UK submarines to the Indo-Pacific and having them serviced in Australian ports as part of a plan to have a more “persistent” presence in the region.

The US is also looking at putting more submarines in the area around Australia, and during the next two to three years would train Australians on the US submarines to allow Australians to command the vessels.