Three-year Noalition: Liberals-Nationals divorce set to last to next poll

Sussan Ley intends not to re-form a Coalition with David Littleproud before the 2028 election as she moves to seize on the Nationals’ shock split to promote up to nine additional Liberal MPs to her new opposition frontbench.

Nationals leader David Littleproud, centre, deputy leader Kevin Hogan, left, and Senate leader Bridget McKenzie in Canberra on Tuesday. Picture: AAP

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

Sussan Ley intends not to re-form a ­Coalition with David Littleproud before the 2028 election as she moves to seize on the Nationals’ shock split to promote up to nine additional Liberal MPs to her new opposition frontbench.

After the Opposition Leader ­rebuffed ransom demands from the Nationals leader, Mr Littleproud called a snap party room meeting on Tuesday to win approval to formally walk away from the Coalition agreement for the first time since 1987.

While the Nationals claimed the decision to blindside the Liberals was based on Ms Ley not guaranteeing four non-negotiable policies would be part of the ­Coalition’s policy platform, the Liberal leader said she could not agree to a request from Mr Littleproud allowing his shadow cabinet ministers a free vote on contentious issues including net-zero emissions by 2050.

Ms Ley late on Tuesday night suggested that climate policy might have been why the Nationals wanted the right to break shadow cabinet solidarity, and declared she did not believe the Coalition agreement should be held “hostage” over policy.

“Obviously, the concern would be that (free votes) might relate to climate policy and it might relate to other policies, where we should present a united front to the Australian people,” she told the ABC.

“I don’t believe that the ­Coalition agreement itself should be hostage to individual policies.”

Mr Littleproud’s historic move is the first time the Coalition has split since the Nationals’ ill-fated decision 38 years ago to back controversial Queensland premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s bid to become prime minister. The ‘Joh for PM’ Coalition split handed Labor’s Bob Hawke a third term and led to a humiliating defeat for then-­opposition leader John Howard.

Mr Howard – who went on to win in 1996 with a Liberal victory so large he could have governed without the Nationals – on Tuesday warned this most recent split could have “terrible consequences” for the centre-right movement in Australia.

The damaging Coalition divorce in the wake of Anthony Albanese’s May 3 election landslide victory, which has delivered Labor at least 93 seats, will also trigger a brawl between the parties over staffing allocations and resources.

The Australian on Tuesday ­revealed Mr Littleproud had been in touch with the Prime Minister to inform him of the Nationals’ ­decision, while senior Liberal figures were also talking with government ministers.

While the Liberal Party maintains its status as the official opposition party, meaning it should receive about 21 per cent of the staffing budget compared with the government, the Nationals will ask Mr Albanese to provide them with an adequate staffing allocation. Mr Littleproud, who met Ms Ley in her home base of Albury last Thursday, said the decision to quit the Coalition was based on the Liberals’ failure to guarantee ongoing support for nuclear energy, forced divestiture of super­markets, the $20bn regional future fund and enforced universal service obligations, which ensure ­mobile phone coverage in the regions. The claim was made despite Ms Ley publicly declaring that all Coalition policies taken to the election would be reviewed.

A message sent by Ms Ley to Mr Littleproud making that point clear was the trigger for Mr Littleproud and his leadership team, including deputy Kevin Hogan and Senate leader Bridget McKenzie, to call a snap party room meeting on Tuesday.

The Nationals leader informed Ms Ley of the decision about 30 minutes before holding a press conference in Parliament House.

“The principal position that we had was around policy: that we wanted to look forward, not have to look back,” Mr Littleproud said.

“This is one of the hardest ­political decisions of my life. I have faith in her (Ms Ley). I actually think it is conceivable that she can win the next election. But there are so many forces within her party that she needs to have that ­environment to be able to create, to rectify it and to set them on a pathway. And that is the commitment I gave to Sussan Ley, is that I’m still there and the door is still open but you need the time and space to know who you are and what you want to be and know with clarity who we are and that I give you that commitment.”

Asked if the Liberals and Nationals would go to the next election without a Coalition pact, Mr Littleproud said: “If we can’t get to an agreement, yes, that’s the case.”

Following the devastating election result, forces had intensified inside both the Nationals and Liberal Party rooms about the prospect of axing the Coalition agreement. Senior moderate Liberals, who have welcomed the decision, had argued it was too difficult to win back metropolitan seats lost at the 2022 and 2025 elections in partnership with the Nationals.

After Mr Littleproud fended off a leadership challenge from Matt Canavan last Monday, the ­Nationals leader was read the riot act to muscle up on the

Coalition policy supporting net-zero emissions by 2050.

Senator McKenzie, who was considered by some Liberal sources as an architect of the decision to quit the Coalition, told The Australian the Nationals would assess each piece of legislation on its merits and that it was important to have a “foundational policy suite” for the country party to build on”.

Former Nationals leader ­Michael McCormack said that, ­despite being a firm Coalitionist, he respected the majority view of his party on breaking from the Liberals. Mr McCormack said he would not leave the Nationals ­following the split but “sincerely hoped” the two parties would come together again. “I believe Australia is best served when we’ve got a Coalition in place,” Mr McCormack said.

“Philosophically we’re still very much on board on most issues. But on the issues of nuclear, universal service obligations, supermarket’s divestiture and the regional Australia fund, for many Nationals these were die in a ditch issues.”

Mr McCormack agreed the split had happened “very quickly”.

In her virtual Liberal party room meeting convened after the Nationals’ decision, Ms Ley told MPs that the Nationals were not genuine about forming a Coalition and that she would now decide on shadow cabinet and frontbench positions within days. Both the Liberals and Nationals will have competing spokespeople across multiple economic, security and foreign affairs portfolios.

Former Nationals Senate leader Ron Boswell described the ­Coalition split as “a good time to pause, withdraw and reflect”.

Mr Boswell told The Australian the split meant the Liberals and Nationals were “in territory that we’ve never been in before”.

“We’ve never received such a strong disciplinary message from the electorate,” he said. “It may be a good time to just pause a bit, withdraw, reflect and I think that’s what the National Party has done.”

Queensland Nationals MP Colin Boyce says there would be discussions about whether the state’s Liberal National Party should remain a merged force after the Coalition split. But LNP president Lawrence Springborg, dubbed the “father” of the state’s merged conservative parties, said Mr Littleproud’s decision would have “no bearing” on the state LNP government, or the LNP-dominated Brisbane City Council.

Speaking to Liberal MPs, Ms Ley told them she had sought to act in “good faith” with the Nationals. Within 24 hours of meeting Mr Littleproud, senior Liberal operatives confirmed it was likely the Nationals would blow-up the Coalition. Liberal Party room sources said the break-up seemed like “an inevitability” rather than being the fault of Ms Ley and raised the spectre of Mr Littleproud being forced into the decision. A Nationals MP said “there were some different views … but no one was violently opposed”.

Jim Chalmers described the Coalition split as a “seismic event in our political history” but it ­“remains to be seen how long this lasts”.

Additional reporting: Rhiannon Down, Sarah Elks