The 2024 federal budget in five charts: the data you need to see
From changing tax to the spending splurge and our debt mountain, this is Labor’s federal budget in five must-see charts.
Jim Chalmers’ third budget reveals a second consecutive surplus – of $9.3bn in 2023-24 – but the Treasurer’s self-proclaimed unavoidable spending and the end of the tax windfall from soaring commodities prices and “full employment” means the budget will be back in deficit from 2024-25 and through the forward estimates to 2027-28.
Long term problem – The budget won’t be returning to surplus anytime soon
The structural budget data reveals the budget won’t be returning to surplus at any time in the next decade, with baked-in spending pressures related to the NDIS, interest payments on debt, health, defence and welfare weigh heavily on the bottom line.
Hey, big spender – Chalmers spending forecast to be the highest since Hawke government
The Treasurer shows no signs of bringing spending as a percentage of GDP back below 25 per cent any time soon. Spending as a percentage of GDP rises to 26.6 per cent in 2025-26 and remains at 26 per cent of above across the budget forward estimates. Barring the Covid-19 spike in 2019-20 and 2020-21, Chalmers’ spending is forecast to be the highest since than the early years of the Hawke government, higher even than Wayne Swan’s post-global financial crisis budget of 2009-10.
The changing tax mix – Tax burden continues to grow
The tax burden on individuals has continued to grow, with personal income tax forecast to reach 48.3 per cent of all receipts in this financial year, the same as in 2015-16 before the previous Coalition government’s three-stage tax package began. It dips to 46.7 per cent in 2024-25 as the revamped stage three tax cuts kick in.
Debt Mountain
Gross debt will peak at $1.112bn in 2027-28, representing 34.9 per cent of GDP, slightly down on 35.2 per cent of GDP in 2026-27, the highest since the peak of 39.3 during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21. Interest paid on debt will peak at $35.6bn in 2027-28.