Tasmanian election: Liberals ahead but Labor may forge power deal
Despite record debt, an unpopular stadium and ferry bungles, Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals are believed ahead in Tasmania. But Saturday’s election could have a twist to help Labor steal an unlikely win.
Polls show Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals winning the most seats in Tasmania on Saturday but he may still lose government, with Labor, Greens and crossbench figures flagging a grand alliance to end 11 years of Liberal rule.
Tasmania’s second election in just 16 months was triggered by a June no confidence motion in the Premier over budget mismanagement, infrastructure bungling and a privatisation agenda.
Asset sales were shelved when the election was called, but key crossbenchers told The Australian it would be difficult – or, in the case of the Greens, impossible – to suddenly have confidence in Mr Rockliff post-election.
All polling throughout the campaign has pointed to another hung parliament, with neither the Liberals nor Labor capable of securing a majority.
The latest poll – by EMRS for the Liberals – points to a similar result to the March 2024 election, when the Liberals won 14 seats in the 35-seat assembly, Labor 10, Greens five and other crossbenchers six.
An independent DemosAU poll a week ago had the Liberals on 34.9 per cent, Labor 24.7, the Greens 15.6, independents 20.3 and Nationals 2.7.
Such an outcome would probably deliver 13 to 14 seats for the Liberals – well shy of the 18 needed for majority – Labor 9-10, the Greens 6, and independents and minor parties the remainder.
A YouGov opinion poll released late Friday night also pointed to a hung parliament, but a much closer contest. It had the Liberals on 31 per cent, Labor on 30, the Greens 16, independents 20, and the Nationals 2.
The poll showed that in the event of a hung parliament, 55 per cent of voters would prefer Labor’s Dean Winter to be Premier, compared to 45 per cent for the Liberals’ Mr Rockliff.
Labor has twice knocked back the chance to govern with fewer seats than the Liberals – after the 2024 election and again last month after the successful no confidence motion in Mr Rockliff.
However, senior party sources told The Australian Labor “must” now try to govern with or without the most seats because it was duty-bound to stop Mr Rockliff trebling debt and “bankrupting the state”.
Even so, senior Labor figures believe it must at least hold its 10 seats, and preferably gain two to consider governing with the Greens and other crossbenchers’ support.
Labor leader Mr Winter has ruled out a formal power-sharing deal with the Greens, but has left open accepting the minor party’s support with no strings.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff told The Australian her party had not changed its view on Mr Rockliff. “We have no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff as premier – that’s because he has … broken promises and shown contempt for Tasmanians,” Dr Woodruff said.
Tasmania was “in a mess” and needed change. “People around the state are telling us they want a new government,” she said.
“But they also want to make sure the next government actually delivers the change Tasmania needs. For that to happen we need the Greens in balance of power.”
The ball would be in Mr Winter’s court. “It’s up to the Labor leader to put his personal feelings about the Greens aside, and to work in the best interests of Tasmania,” Dr Woodruff said.
Mr Rockliff and Mr Winter are open to supply and confidence deals with “sensible” independents. Two green left-leaning independents who voted no confidence in Mr Rockliff – Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland – are tipped to return.
Ms Johnston has ruled out a formal deal but told The Australian she wanted to see major party leaders “respect the outcome of the election and articulate what they will do to include the crossbench and make power-sharing work”.
Mr Garland said he was appalled by the Liberals’ failure to fund basic services, including women’s shelters, while adding to $13bn in debt by funding a $945m-plus Hobart AFL stadium.
“From where I’m sitting, there is a total ignorance towards the bottom end of town and the most needy and the most disadvantaged, so some AFL footballers can have a $1bn stadium to run around in,” he said.
“I’m not beyond working with anyone from the Liberal Party but they know now they’ve got to respect and work in a collaborative manner. They are the most mean-spirited pack of pricks I’ve ever come across.”
The Nationals, seeking a toehold in Tasmania, have recruited three sitting or former MPs – ex-Liberal John Tucker and ex-Jacqui Lambie Network MPs Miriam Beswick and Andrew Jenner.
All three told The Australian they were open to backing Labor to govern, over their party’s traditional coalition partner, the Liberals, depending on the seat count and negotiations.
“I would support whichever party was able to form stable government but if Labor needed that support then yeah, absolutely,” said Mr Jenner, a former English Tory mayor who supported the no confidence motion in Mr Rockliff.
“It will be really strange if he (Rockliff) comes back as the leader with that no confidence still hanging over his head.
“Yes, I would happily work Labor. I had 41 years as a Tory but sometimes change is good. Half the problem (in the last term) was that the Liberal government didn’t know how to share power.”
Mr Jenner and Mr Tucker are standing for the Nationals in the regional seat of Lyons, where polling suggests the party has a chance of winning a seat on preferences.
Mr Tucker, who spectacularly fell out with the Liberals, said he could also work with Labor.
“Yep, the Nationals have formed government with the Labor Party in the past at the state level,” he said. “The big thing at the moment is getting our fiscal policy under control. We can’t just keep borrowing money and borrowing money.”
A Nationals MP, Karlene Maywald, was a member of the South Australian Labor cabinet from 2004 to 2010.
Even Ms Beswick, who in the last parliament had a formal deal with Mr Rockliff and who did not support the no confidence motion, said she was “absolutely” willing to work with Labor.
“I can work with anyone – so let’s have an adult debate and work out a positive way forward,” she said.
Anti-salmon campaigner and former ABC journalist Peter George, seen as a good chance of winning in Franklin, said he would take into account the “seat count” but also which party could fund their promises.
“I will want to hear how the hell they’re going to fund all these latest lot of policy rollouts and look carefully at this before making any decision,” he said.
In his final pitch to voters, Mr Rockliff warned “the only way Labor can govern is with the Greens”.
“Tasmania cannot afford to let that happen, and the only way to avoid that disaster is to vote 1-7 for your local Liberal candidates on Saturday,” he said.
Mr Winter promised to “bring Tasmania together to fix the mess left by the Liberals” and to “deliver the fresh start we need”.
“This election is a choice between a fresh start for Tasmanians, or more of the same under the Liberals after 11 years of failure,” he said.
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