Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff survives but damage is done, inside and outside state parliament
The immediate turmoil threatening to topple Jeremy Rockliff and the nation’s last Liberal government has abated, but the Premier’s next crisis may be just around the corner.
Ousted attorney-general Elise Archer had kept on tenterhooks the government of which she had, until Friday, long been an integral part.
The 52-year-old keyboard warrior with an apparent penchant for offensive messages agonised over whether to bring down her colleagues or walk away.
Supporting the premier, party and government that had thrown her so thoroughly under a bus was never going to be an option for this combative conservative.
In the end, this former blue-blooded Liberal chose not to be remembered as the woman who blew up the party’s last living administration.
By quitting parliament, she allows a Liberal to be elected to replace her (on a recount under the Hare Clark system). This will restore Rockliff’s government to 11 members in the 25-seat Assembly, with two ex-Liberal independents providing confidence and supply.
Rockliff may be tempted to pop the House of Arras vintage, but he’d best keep it on ice.
His problems – in the House of Assembly, in the Liberal Party room, and in voter land – do not depart with his scandal-scarred ex-AG.
In terms of the Assembly, those two ex-Liberal independents – Lara Alexander and John Tucker – have made it clear they are mightily unimpressed by the shenanigans of the past few days.
Tucker has publicly called for Rockliff to be rolled by his deputy, Michael Ferguson, and tells The Australian his promise of confidence and supply holds only “at the moment”.
Alexander has suggested an election might be best for all, and tells The Australian she would consider any no confidence motion on its merits, while harbouring deep concerns about Rockliff’s handling of the Archer affair.
Between now and the resumption of parliament, likely sometime in October after the recount for Archer’s seat is complete, Rockliff needs to engage with these two rebels - or risk a Pyrrhic victory.
Similarly, those of his colleagues still remaining in the party room (three have quit the party on his watch) will also need some TLC.
Ferguson is ambitious but has - since failing to muster the numbers against Rockliff back in April 2022 - been loyal through thick and thin.
The Liberal brand, though, has in recent days been further tarnished, a perception of chaos further cemented and the precariousness of the government further underscored.
Rockliff appears like a scoreless batsman on a sticky wicket, surviving appeal after appeal only due to a dodgy DRS. Unless he can find form, and quickly, there will be a ball with his name on it sooner rather than later.
In the weeks or months ahead, the party room may well decide Ferguson is their best bet to rebuild at or ahead of a difficult election.
That Archer’s most likely replacement, Simon Behrakis, is an adviser to Ferguson, and cut from similar conservative factional cloth, only adds to the pressure on the struggling moderate Premier.
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