Takeover of Taiwan by China ‘likely’

Australia’s defence department has been warned China is ‘highly likely’ to attempt to take over Taiwan as early as 2024.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. Picture: AFP

The Australian defence department has been warned Xi Jinping’s administration is “highly likely” to attempt to take over Taiwan using “all means short of war” as early as 2024.

Linda Jakobson, a specialist on the fraught Taiwan Straits situation, delivered that assessment in a report handed to the Morrison government last May, weeks after the China-Australian relationship plunged to historic lows following Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s call — without forewarning Beijing — for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19.

A likely trigger would be the election of a more pro-independence candidate in Taiwan’s 2024 election, which will decide President Tsai Ing-wen’s successor.

“If a strongly pro-independence person is elected in 2024 as president of Taiwan it would be a slap in the face for Beijing’s leadership,” Ms Jakobson told The Australian. “I think that’s really crunch time.”

The assessment of what would be a strategic nightmare for Australia, Japan, South Korea and the US comes after tension over Taiwan dominated the first official high-level contact between the Biden administration and Xi’s authoritarian government.

China’s most senior diplomat Yang Jiechi over the weekend told the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Taiwan — which it regards as a breakaway province and which just over a dozen states recognise as a country — was the “most important” and most sensitive” problem in China-US relations.

The Liaoning, China’s aircraft carrier, sailing during military drills in the Pacific.

At the same meeting, Mr Blinken said the US would stand up for “democratic values” and would work with allies to hold China “accountable for its efforts to threaten stability in the Indo-Pacific, including … the Taiwan Strait”.

In her report, Ms Jakobson advised the Defence Department that a conventional military invasion of Taiwan is unlikely; rather, she argued Beijing would likely pursue a protracted and intensive campaign using “all means short of war” to force the Taiwanese leadership to start negotiating.

“The US and others in the region, including Australia, would find it extremely difficult to counter these moves,” Ms Jakobson has written in a condensed version of the report to be released on Tuesday by the Australian-based policy institute China Matters.

“No action by the PRC would warrant a military response, but collectively they could allow Beijing to achieve its aim.”

A range of measures could be used, including a trade embargo, cyber attacks, a disinformation campaign and even assassination.

“In this scenario, the PRC would not invade Taiwan. Rather, Beijing would strive to create utter chaos in Taiwan and compel the government to accede to the PRC’s demands,” she wrote.

Soldiers wearing face masks amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic listen to an address by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen during her visit to a military base in Tainan, southern Taiwan.

While it would not involve a military invasion of Taiwan, it could easily spark an armed conflict with the US and its allies.

“The potential for war would loom large,” she wrote.

She also argued that Australian decision-makers need to prepare for an “all means short of war” scenario that she assesses as “highly likely” to begin in the next three to eight years.

“Xi Jinping has put a timetable on himself,” she told The Australian on Monday.

The briefing presents a host of unpalatable options for Canberra in such a scenario, including banning trade to China of iron ore, Australia’s most lucrative export.

A Defence spokesperson said the views expressed in the report do not necessarily represent the views of the Department or the Australian Government.

“Australia supports a peaceful resolution of differences over Taiwan and other regional issues through dialogue and without the threat or use of force or coercion. Defence does not comment on hypothetical scenarios,” the spokesperson said.