Swing seats muddy waters

The extent of the swing against the ALP in central and north Queensland is set to determine which party will govern Queensland after Saturday’s election.

Central Queensland Labor candidates for Keppel Brittany Lauga and Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke.

The extent of the swing against the ALP in central and north Queensland is set to determine which party will govern Queensland after Saturday’s election.

With one day to go before Queenslanders head to the polls, insiders from the rival parties are lining up the seats that they see as most likely to change hands. A uniform swing seems unlikely, with both major parties likely to win and lose seats.

In north Queensland, the Liberal National Party organisation is targeting Barron River in Cairns, where the tourism-based local economy has been hit by the lockdown of state and nation­al borders; and Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra in Townsville, where rising levels of crime has become a major city-wide issue.

The ALP is nervous about Mackay, despite holding a healthy margin of 8.2 per cent, as the city has changed from a sugar town to a mining town with accompanying demographic changes. Keppel, based around Yeppoon on the coast near Rockhampton, is another seat where the LNP is optimistic.

In Brisbane, the LNP is most hopeful in Aspley and Mansfield, which it held before the 2017 poll, and which leader Deb Frecklington visited on Thursday.

The party also feels it has a good chance in Redlands and Maiwar in Brisbane, which it also held before the last election, as well as Gaven on the Gold Coast.

The collapse of One Nation should mean Mirani near Mackay will return to the LNP, while it can also take seats off the North Queensland First party (Whitsunday) and Katter’s Australian Party (Hinchinbrook), while possibly getting Noosa back from independent Sandy Bolton.

On the ALP side the list is considerably shorter: Pumicestone, which the party lost in 2017, is seen as its best chance. At that election the previous ALP member Rick Williams, who had been disendorsed by the party, ran as an independent, taking some votes off the ALP, but his absence should mean the ALP can regain the seat.

It is a similar story in Bundaberg, which the ALP lost in 2017 after member Leanne Don­ald­son, who was agriculture minister during the Palaszczuk gov­ern­ment’s first term, had a series of financial scandals to deal with.

Clayfield and Chatsworth are its best chances in Brisbane.

Premier Annastacia Palasz­czuk visited Mansfield on Brisbane’s southern outskirts on Thursday, indicating the party is nervous about its chances there, but she also visited five seats on the Gold Coast, which has never been fertile ground for the ALP.

Currumbin is seen as the party’s best chance to pick up a seat there, but it is held by the LNP with a margin of 3.3 per cent, despite a 2.1 per cent swing against the opposition party in a by-election in March this year.

Burleigh and Bonney are also outside chances for the ALP.

The Greens are confident of holding Maiwar, which they took off the LNP at the last election, and confident they will take South Brisbane off former ALP deputy premier Jackie Trad.