Sussan Ley confident of pipping Angus Taylor in Liberal leadership battle

Senior Liberal Party sources say a close victory could trigger a shaky early tenure for Ms Ley, who would need to bring warring moderates and conservatives together.

Sussan Ley at home in Albury, NSW. Picture: Alex Coppel

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Sussan Ley is confident of pipping Angus Taylor by “a couple of votes” in a tight leadership contest to replace Peter Dutton as opposition leader, as the combatants made last-ditch efforts to swing a rump of undecided Liberal MPs to their camp.

Senior Liberal sources said a close victory for the Acting Opposition Leader on Tuesday could trigger a shaky early tenure for Ms Ley, who would need to bring warring moderates and conservatives together.

As previously revealed by The Australian, opponents of Ms Ley have warned she would likely not have majority support internally once the terms of senators backing her in Tuesday’s vote expire on June 30.

The threat of a prolonged civil war inside Liberal ranks after the devastating May 3 election loss comes as supporters of Ms Ley said Mr Taylor’s decision to run a joint ticket with Jacinta Nampi­jinpa Price, who defected from the Nationals last week, had “backfired”.

Longman MP Terry Young – who holds a slender 217-vote lead in his southeast Queensland seat – is not expected to attend the Liberal Party leadership ballot in Canberra, which would cost Mr Taylor a crucial vote.

Liberals from both camps said the leadership contest was going to be tight, with several MPs ­unclear on which way they would vote. Supporters of Mr Taylor said claims by Ms Ley’s backers that they had locked in the majority of votes required to win, understood to be about 27 or 28, were ­“misleading”.

“There’s a few people who haven’t declared their hand,” one Liberal source said.

“There are five or so people who are genuinely undecided. People like David Fawcett, Mary Aldred, Paul Scarr, even Julian Leeser. And it sounds like Terry Young won’t be there to vote.

Opposition Treasury spokesman Angus Taylor at home in Gundary, NSW. Picture: Martin Ollman

A supporter of Mr Taylor raised Ms Ley’s “former pro-Palestinian sympathies” as a point of contention and something that may sway MPs such as Mr Leeser – who is Jewish – against her, or returning Goldstein MP Tim Wilson, who represents a prominent Jewish-Australian community.

Ms Ley in 2008 said Palestinians were being “airbrushed out of existence” and that Gaza was ­“besieged, contained and on the brink of starvation”. Despite her more recent comments, including criticism of Labor frontbenchers who were calling for Israel to show restraint in Gaza, The Australian understands Ms Ley is still described by detractors as holding more “pro-Palestinian views” than the broader party room.

A senior backer of Ms Ley said the attack was “grubby and ­desperate from a side that is disorganised and behind”.

Ted O'Brien. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Senior Liberal sources from both camps believe Ted O’Brien would beat Senator Price in the deputy leadership ballot, while Senate leader Michaelia Cash and deputy leader Anne Ruston would likely stay in their positions.

Liberal MPs said Senator Price’s attempt to secure the deputy leadership was damaging for Mr Taylor, who they said had “made a mistake” in not distancing himself from the former Country Liberal senator immediately.

“A lot of people are quite rightly aghast at what she’s done and how she’s done it,” a Liberal MP said. “What does this say to other ­Liberal women, that (Mr Taylor) had to reach out of the party (for a female running mate).”

Liberals said they expected the Nationals would demand “a lot more” shadow cabinet roles and whoever won the leadership must strike a “fair balance” in a new ­Coalition agreement.

Liberal Party federal director Andrew Hirst on Monday determined that Bradfield Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, who leads Climate 200 Teal candidate Nicolette Boele by 214 votes, and Mr Young could participate in the votes for a new leader and deputy leader.

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Picture: James Horan

Mr Young, a conservative, is expected to skip the party room vote to focus on the count in his marginal seat of Longman, which has been narrowing in favour of Labor candidate Rhiannyn Douglas.

Tom Venning, the Liberal candidate for Grey who is locked in a three-cornered contest but should win the South Australian seat, and Fisher MP Andrew Wallace, who is in a three-cornered contest but is expected to retain his Queensland seat, will be present for the vote.

Ms Kapterian and Mr Venning are expected to vote for Ms Ley. Mr Young declined to comment when approached by The Australian on Monday.

Although former federal and state leaders including former prime minister Tony ­Abbott and former premiers Gladys Berejiklian and Jeff Kennett have backed a side, former prime minister John Howard has declined to comment on the leadership contest ahead of the party room vote.

Tim Wilson. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Mr Wilson, who defeated ­Climate 200-backed teal Zoe Daniel in his former seat, is expected to claim a senior frontbench role from either Ms Ley or Mr Taylor.

After allowing speculation to run that he may be a candidate in Tuesday’s ballot, Mr Wilson publicly announced on Monday night that he would not run.

“I won’t be a candidate for leader tomorrow – it’s not my time .. but I will be giving all my energies to whoever wins, toreplicate what we did in Goldstein across our party.”