Super Saturday by-elections: Shorten heads to Longman as Labor battles

In a sign of how worried the major parties are, Bill Shorten has used Labor’s Longman launch to skewer the One Nation leader.

Labor leader Bill Shorten with his Longman candidate Susan Lamb and Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk at the party’s campaign launch in Caboolture. Picture:Tara Croser.

Bill Shorten has launched Labor’s final week of campaigning in Longman, casting Susan Lamb as the underdog following the release of a new poll that points to a narrow and historic Liberal National Party victory.

The by-election has been cast as a test of Mr Shorten’s leadership, a view that has been re-enforced by Malcolm Turnbull while campaigning in Longman yesterday but dismissed by the Labor leader today.

Speaking at the belated launch of Ms Lamb’s campaign at an RSL club in Caboolture, on Brisbane’s northern fringe, Mr Shorten embraced Ms Lamb as the underdog.

“It is a tough fight, we are the underdogs,” Mr Shorten said. “The bookmakers have the other mob as the favourites. Now of course the LNP and the One Nation political party have teamed up again and are swapping preferences just to try to knock us off.”

A ReachTEL poll, commissioned by The Courier Mail and published overnight, shows the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg with a narrow 51-49 lead over Ms Lamb on a two-party-preferred basis.

.@SusanLambALP : I know it is only Labor that is committed to delivering the services that our community needs.

MORE: https://t.co/wFn7fduY5x #weekendlive pic.twitter.com/UVRsl8vRPa

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 22, 2018

Mr Ruthenbeg has also strengthened his primary vote from 35.5 per cent three weeks ago to 37.9 per cent last week, according to the poll, while Ms Lamb’s has fallen to 35.9 per cent.

This morning, Mr Shorten dismissed Mr Turnbull’s description of the byelection as being a contest between the two leaders.

“He said that the by-election was about him versus me. And maybe in his mind, that’s what it is. Maybe that contest makes all his other problems just go away magically.

“On his flying visit here yesterday, he said ‘Bill Shorten’ 11 times… but he didn’t mention the word ‘schools’ once.

“I’m different - I don’t actually think this by-election is about him or me. I say this to the voters of Longman, it’s not about Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, it’s about you.”

But in a sign of how worried the major parties have been about preferences of minor parties, Mr Shorten also dedicated part of his campaign speech to attack Pauline Hanson and One Nation.

“She certainly doesn’t like us calling her out for being an imposter and pretending to be a friend of the battlers, when all she wants to do is get back on the plane to Canberra and vote with the big end of town,” Mr Shorten said.

“I think every day that goes on, more and more people are learning the truth about One Nation and their leader. What she says on Sunrise she does not do in the Senate. What she says in Caboolture is not what she does in Canberra.”

.@billshortenmp: We are going to run all the way to the finish line to bring home a win for Labor.

MORE: https://t.co/wFn7fduY5x #weekendlive pic.twitter.com/yzV55kbw7N

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 22, 2018

TURNBULL PLAYS DOWN PROSPECTS

Mr Turnbull has also played down the Coalition’s prospects of picking up seats in this Saturday’s by-elections but kept pressure on Mr Shorten by declaring Labor should be “streets ahead” in the polls.

The Prime Minister said the by-elections in Longman and Braddon looked like they would be tight races.

“The by-elections on all the evidence appear to be very close but we have got to recognise that Labor should be streets ahead in these by-elections,” Mr Turnbull said.

“By-elections historically always swing away from the government, particularly if it’s an opposition seat.

“The last time a government won a seat in a by-election from the opposition was about 100 years ago, there’s a reason for that.”

Mr Turnbull said a vote for the Labor candidates in each seat would be a vote for “Bill Shorten and his higher taxes”.

He added Mr Shorten’s policies would increase power prices and weaken Australia’s border protection policies.

“Don’t forget that the unions that control him are demanding that Labor abandon our border protection policy,” Mr Turnbull said.

.@TurnbullMalcolm: @billshortenmp is admitting he has failed before he has even started.

He does not stand-up for Australian jobs or businesses.

MORE: https://t.co/sHoix8yJPw #weekendlive pic.twitter.com/ObONm3zbZX

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 22, 2018

LABOR ON THE ROPES

The latest ReachTEL poll showed the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg on 51 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, based on 38 per cent of the primary vote and a swag of One Nation preferences.

Labor’s primary vote sits on 36 per cent, but won’t get much love from Greens preferences with the minor party standing at four per cent.

The federal opposition leader is hoping for a lift from a new policy — spending $1.4 billion over five years to keep in place the energy supplement pensioners and welfare recipients.

Draft laws to scrap the energy supplement for anyone who has become a new pension or allowance recipient since September 20, 2016, are currently before the federal Parliament.

Axing the energy supplement will mean a cut of $14.10 per fortnight to single pensioners or around $365 a year, and a cut of $21.20 a fortnight or around $550 a year to couple pensioners.

“If Turnbull gets this legislation through, in the 2020-21 financial year alone more than 592,000 age pensioners will have less in their pockets every fortnight,” Mr Shorten said.

Over the decade it would adversely impact on 1.5 million pensioners, according to Labor’s figures.

The payment was initially made as compensation for the carbon tax. Labor appears on track to win three by-elections, in Perth, Fremantle and the Tasmanian seat of Braddon on July 28.

Labor frontbencher Jim Chalmers said the LNP had won six out of eight elections in Longman and it would be “very difficult” for Labor to retain it, given that One Nation was preferencing the LNP.

“It will be a squeaker — we might not even know (the result) this time next week,” he told ABC TV.

SHORTEN LEADERSHIP ‘SAFE’

A senior Labor frontbencher says Mr Shorten will lead the party to the next federal election irrespective of the results of the Super Saturday by-elections.

Labor is expected to retain the seats of Perth, Fremantle and Braddon, but is behind in Longman. The party is not contesting the South Australian seat of Mayo, where the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is likely to beat the Liberals’ Georgina Downer.

Labor’s Brendan O’Connor said the party was confident of doing well in Longman, but admitted it was a “tough contest” given One Nation was preferencing the LNP. Asked on Sky News how a loss would impact on Mr Shorten’s leadership, Mr O’Connor said: “Bill Shorten will be leader at the next federal election.” “The last election campaign, the full contest, he won 14 seats and took us within a whisker of winning the election,” Mr O’Connor said. He said Mayo would be a test for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, as it is a “blue-ribbon, safe Liberal seat”.

“When you talk about tests for Labor, there are tests for Malcolm Turnbull and Mayo is a test for him.”

Labor’s employment spokesman, Brendan O'Connor. Picture: AAP

Liberal frontbencher Josh Frydenberg dismissed any pressure on Mr Turnbull, given no government has won an opposition seat in a by-election for 100 years. “These by-elections will be close, but history goes against the coalition so we are very realistic about our chances,” Mr Frydenberg told ABC TV. He said the polls showed Mr Turnbull was “way ahead” of Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister.

Asked whether an early federal election was on the cards if the Liberals performed well, Mr Frydenberg said: “The prime minister has made it clear he is expecting the election to be next year and nothing I’ve heard would changed that prediction.” “The reality is we are trying to climb Everest in winning these by-elections.”

LABOR EYES BRADDON WIN

A new poll taken in Braddon shows Labor on 52 per cent of the two-party vote with about two-thirds of voters expected to preference the opposition over the government.

The Liberals are not standing candidates in Perth and Fremantle. The Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is widely tipped to retain her South Australian seat of Mayo against a challenge by the Liberals’ Georgina Downer. Liberal senator Eric Abetz said history showed by-elections tended to swing against the government of the day.

Winning Mayo and Braddon would be “exceptionally difficult tasks”, he said. “If we do happen to pick up one of those seats it will be a history-making occasion,” he said.

Mr Turnbull is travelling to Tennant Creek on Sunday to get a first-hand view of social and economic problems in the remote Northern Territory town.

- with AAP