NewsBite

Super Saturday by-elections results: Shorten hails a Super Saturday for Labor

With likely victories in four of five by-elections, Shorten declares Super Saturday a ‘signpost’ to Labor win at next federal election.

Labor leader Bill Shorten and Longman candidate Susan Lamb celebrate in Caboolture. Photo: AAP
Labor leader Bill Shorten and Longman candidate Susan Lamb celebrate in Caboolture. Photo: AAP
40 min read
8:39AMJuly 28, 2018.
Updated 11:01PMJuly 28, 2018

Welcome to live coverage of the Super Saturday by-elections in Longman (Qld), Braddon (Tas), Mayo (SA), Fremantle (WA) and Perth (WA).

Luke Griffiths 10.48pm: Sharkie extends lead in Mayo

Rebekha Sharkie has marginally extended her lead in Mayo over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

With more than three quarters of the vote counted, Ms Sharkie has 58.59 per cent of the two party vote, more than 17 points clear of Ms Downer’s 41.41 per cent.

It is an emphatic victory for Ms Sharkie, whose resignation from Parliament in May over dual citizenship issues triggered the by-election.

Ms Sharkie, 46, entered Parliament in 2016 after defeating the Liberals’ Jamie Briggs with 55 per cent of the two-party vote.

Ms Downer said her campaign for the general election, which must be held by May next year, “starts tomorrow”.

But many within the Liberal camp will be questioning whether today’s result warrants the 38-year-old former diplomat and Institute of Public Affairs fellow being preselected again.

“We did this tonight, we did this today because of you, because of people power,” Ms Sharkie said.

“I was crushed the day I resigned but today was sweet.

“Tonight we have shown that you don’t need lots of money, that you don’t need a big political machine.

“What you need are people who are passionate, people who care.”

Ben Packham 10.10pm: Longman, Braddon, Mayo counting

Here’s a quick results update from the seats in the eastern states.

In Longman, Labor’s Susan Lamb has been returned. With 43.19 per cent of the vote counted:
■ ALP 2PP 50.99 per cent (+4.20)
■ LNP 2PP 45.01 per cent (-4.20)

In Braddon, Labor’s Justine Keay has been returned. With 74.22 per cent of the vote counted:
■ ALP 2PP 52.22 (+0.02)
■ Lib 2PP 47.78 (-0.02)

In Mayo, Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie has been returned. With 75.69 per cent of the vote counted:
■ CA 2PP 58.45 per cent (+3.48)
■ Lib 2PP 41.55 (-3.48)

Ben Packham 10.03pm: ANALYSIS — Shorten’s leadership safe

Tonight’s results should silence talk of a challenge to Bill Shorten’s leadership.

Labor frontbencher Ed Husic said Mr Shorten had answered his critics. “Passed, tick,” he told the ABC.

The strong win in Longman is particularly significant for Mr Shorten. Labor powerbrokers saw the seat as a litmus test for a string of other Queensland marginals.

Frontbencher Richard Marles claimed the Labor leadership “was not on the table tonight”.

But there is no doubt that Anthony Albanese has been positioning himself as an alternative leader, and would have cranked up the mischief behind the scenes if Mr Shorten failed to put in a good show.

Now, with “four from four”, as Mr Shorten put it, the Labor leadership question appears settled.

The size of the swings will be closely examined. They are well under the historical 5.5 per cent swings towards oppositions in by-elections.

But the results will be a huge confidence boost for the party, and for Mr Shorten who declared Super Saturday a “signpost” to a Labor victory at the next federal election.

The pressure is now likely to come back on the government and its controversial policies, such as its big business tax cuts, and the quality of its campaign in Queensland.

Sid Maher 9.52pm: ‘A very clear message to Turnbull’

Labor’s Justine Keay has claimed victory in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, declaring it a message to Malcolm Turnbull that voters wanted services ahead of business tax cuts which would deliver a break to the banks.

Ms Keay, who was forced to resign over the citizenship crisis, will return to Canberra after appearing to defeat Liberal Brett Whiteley 52.2 per cent to 47.8 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

While prepoll votes remained to be counted they were running about 50-50 and appeared unlikely to change the vote.

Ms Keay told supporters, she would fight for them “as long as you will have me’’.

“As my wonderful friend, Susan Lamb in Longman said tonight, not just in Longman, but in Braddon, in Mayo, in Perth, in Fremantle, have sent a very clear message to Malcolm Turnbull.

“It is people before the banks. Hospitals before the banks. Our schools before the banks.

“And if he doesn’t listen now, he will never, ever listen.’’

Luke Griffiths 9.39pm: Sharkie thanks supporters

Rebekha Sharkie has paid tribute to her more than 800 volunteers in an emotional speech.

Soon after Georgina Downer called her to concede defeat, Ms Sharkie addressed around 200 supporters at Wallis Cinemas in Mount Barker.

Ms Sharkie also thanked her former parliamentary leader and colleague, Nick Xenophon.

“I want to thank one more person who is no longer in politics but who gave me a chance back in 2016, who is not interested in politics anymore because he gave 20 years of his life to South Australia, but he is a dear friend of mine and I’d like us to all thank Nick Xenophon,”

Ms Sharkie said.

With two-thirds of the vote counted, Ms Sharkie is more than 16 points ahead of Ms Downer on a two-party preferred basis, 58.2 to 41.8 per cent.

“I’m just on cloud nine right now,” Ms Sharkie said.

“It has been a really long campaign and feels a bit surreal at the moment. I’m speechless.”

Simon Benson 9.35pm: Libs have learned nothing

Super Saturday has become a bloodbath for the LNP and a nightmare for Malcolm Turnbull. Four out of five of the by-elections have produced little in the way of surprises.

But the apparent collapse in the LNP primary vote in Longman has been stunning. It was the only seat that mattered today as a bellwether for the next election. There are another five seats in Queensland held by the LNP that are under a two per cent margin.

The message for the Turnbull government is dire. Queensland has abandoned it.

Read Simon Benson’s full analysis here.

Ben Packham 9.25pm: Shorten hails Super Saturday victories

Labor Leader Bill Shorten has declared Super Saturday a “signpost” to a Labor victory at the next federal election.

Standing alongside victorious candidate Susan Lamb in Longman, the Opposition Leader paid tribute to the Labor movement, saying they had delivered the result when the party had been written off.

“What a great night for the Labor Party,” Mr Shorten said, amid cheers from a jubilant Labor audience.

“What a great night for Labor women candidates. Actually, what a Super Saturday Night it is.”

Mr Shorten said the Coalition had “thrown everything at us”, but the party had shown what it could do under pressure.

“Friends, can I say that tonight is another sign post into the destination that matters for Australians. A Labor government after the next general election,” Mr Shorten said.

“I promised the Australian people, we will continue the work of putting together a policy agenda for the next national Labor government, a program which will reward the confidence and the support of working class and middle-class Australians.”

Ms Lamb, who achieved a 4 per cent swing towards Labor, said the voters of Longman had sent a powerful message to the government.

“They have sent a message loud, they have sent it clearly,” she told cheering supporters. “Stop giving big banks a tax cut. And start funding our schools and hospitals.

“I promise I will stand up for you, just like I did when I first held the seat. I will stand up for you against Malcolm Turnbull’s heartless cuts to our Caboolture hospital — $2.9 million ripped out of our Caboolture hospital. I will stand up against the $17 billion ripped out of our schools right across Australia.”

Sid Maher 9.22pm: ‘Difficult for Libs to win Braddon’

Liberal candidate for Braddon Brett Whiteley has conceded it will be very difficult for him to win the seat.

Speaking to supporters, he said equated winning the seat climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen.

“We are close but maybe not close enough so we are going to have to wait,’’ he said.

Andrew Burrell 9.20pm: Labor wins Perth, Fremantle

In Western Australia, Labor has prevailed in the Perth and Fremantle by-elections.

Former Kevin Rudd adviser Patrick Gorman is on track to win Perth for Labor, winning almost 42 per cent of the primary vote in early counting.

Mr Gorman, 33, is credited with running Labor’s highly successful campaign that led to Mark McGowan’s landslide victory in Western Australia He served as a close adviser to Mr Rudd when he was prime minister and foreign minister.

With almost 10 per cent of the vote counted, Labor had 41.7 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of the Greens’ Caroline Perks on 20.2 per cent.

The Liberal Party did not field a candidate despite Labor holding the seat on a margin of just 3.3 per cent.

Mr Gorman had 53.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote against the Greens with 46.3 per cent.

In Fremantle, where 22 per cent of the vote had been counted, Labor’s Josh Wilson was on track for a huge victory with a whopping 51.1 per cent of the primary vote. The Greens had 19.4 per cent and the Liberal Democrats had 13.5 per cent.

Mr Wilson polled 41 per cent of the primary vote in 2016.

Matthew Denholm 9.19pm: Garland congratulates Keay

Independent Braddon candidate Craig Garland has thanked his supporters for his strong showing in the by-election.

“I’m very grateful for those who gave me their vote and can’t thank enough all my helpers for their donations of time, resources and support; and my partner Bec for her untiring devoting,” Mr Garland told The Australian.

“I’m very happy that Justine (Keay) looks like retaining her seat.”

Labor’s Ms Keay, whose resignation over her dual British citizenship sparked the by-election, appears certain to be returned to the job.

With almost 70% of the vote counted, Ms Keay has a two party preferred lead over Liberal Brett Whiteley of 52% to 47.9%.

This is largely thanks to preferences from Mr Garland, who secured 11% of the vote and preferred Ms Keay above Mr Whitetely.

Mr Garland took votes from both major parties and the Greens, who have suffered a negative 2.5% swing.

Rosie Lewis 9.18pm: ‘We want Lamb’

Sid Maher 9.12pm: Big Trev concedes in Longman

LNP candidate for the seat of Longman, Trevor Ruthenberg, has conceded defeat after suffering a 10 per cent pimary vote swing against him and gaining just over a quarter of first preference vote.

Mr Ruthenberg said he had spoken to Labor candidate Susan Lamb and congratulated her on her victory.

He said he had reminded her of “the enormous responsibility and privilege she has been given in representing this community in the Australian parliament’’.

“This is a strange election. It’s in that all I have lost, the community will still benefit from the commitments I’ve been able to secure from the Prime Minister and his team of ministers and for that I will be forever grateful.’’

He also addressed the medal controversy which has undermined his campaign.

“I hold all the men and women of the ADF and returned servicemen in the highest esteem and I would never knowingly or deliberately do anything to offend them,’’ Mr Ruthenberg said.

Luke Griffiths 9pm: Downer praises defeated daughter

Alexander Downer, who held Mayo from 1984 to 2008, has heaped praise on his daughter, Georgina Downer.

Mr Downer said Ms Downer would not only win Liberal Party preselection for the general election, but would win the seat from Rebekha Sharkie.

“She (Ms Downer) won’t just be a water carrier,” he said.

“She’ll be one of the great leaders of this country.”

Mr Downer described his family as “nation builders”.

Sid Maher 8.57pm: Labor confident of Braddon win

Labor frontbencher Richard Marles is increasingly confident that the Opposition has retained the Tasmanian seat of Braddon.

Mr Marles said pre-poll votes appeared to be breaking 50-50 between Liberal and Labor which meant that the Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley was unlikely to be able to overtake Labor’s Justine Keay.

With 67.6 per cent of the two party preferred vote counted, Ms Keay is leading Mr Whiteley 52.14 per cent to 47.86 per cent.

Coalition frontbencher Christopher Pyne also said the seat was looking difficult for the government.

“I think it is unlikely we are going to win Braddon,’’ Mr Pyne said.

Ben Packham 8.48pm: ‘Stop trying to bully us’

One Nation’s candidate in Longman Matthew Stephen said the party had shown it was a force in Queensland, and called for the major parties to take note.

“I think they’ve got to start treating us with respect and stop trying to bully us all the time,” he told Sky News.

“The people of Longman, their voices are being heard tonight.”

Sid Maher 8.47pm: Sharkie claims victory in Mayo

Rebekha Sharkie has claimed victory in the South Australian seat of Mayo, crushing the Liberals’ Georgina Downer 57.86 to 42.17 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

Ms Sharkie said she had been “gutted’’ when she was forced to resign from Mayo over the dual citizenship issue.

“Tonight we have shown that you don’t need huge wads of money, you don’t need a huge political machine, what you need are people who are passionate, people who care and that is every single one of us in this room,’’ she said.

Ms Downer a few minutes ago conceded defeat.

“I have just spoken to Rebekha Sharkie and I have congratulated her on being re-elected as the member for Mayo,’’ Ms Downer said.

“She put up an extremely good fight to retain the seat and I do applaud her, because ultimately this was a by-election that was about the people of Mayo and absolutely respect the decsion they’ve made today,’’ she said.

She said a by-election was always tough for a government candidate and she always knew the contest in Mayo would be “particularly challenging’’.

Luke Griffiths 8.37pm: Downer concedes in Mayo

Liberals candidate Georgina Downer has conceded defeat in the South Australian seat of Mayo.

With 57 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Downer trails the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie by 16 points on a two-party preferred basis.

“It’s tough being the government’s candidate (in a by-election),” Ms Downer said.

Senator Anne Ruston said she had “no doubt Georgina Downer will one day be the member for Mayo”.

Ms Downer, who said her defeat at today’s by-election was “only stage one”, confirmed she would seek Liberal Party preselection for the general election, which must be held by May next year.

“Our campaigns starts tomorrow,” she said.

With 60 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Downer trails Ms Sharkie by 16 points on a two-party preferred basis, 58 to 42 per cent.

Simon Benson 8.32pm: Labor set to claim Longman

Rosie Lewis 8.29pm: ‘They didn’t see us coming’, Labor says

A Labor Party strategist has told The Australian the Liberal National Party “got completely blindsided” by its on-the-ground campaign in Longman.

“What they didn’t see coming was our field campaign. We made over 100,000 calls and doorknocks,” they said.

Ben Packham 8.26pm: Dud candidates to blame?

The Super Saturday post-mortem for the Coalition will inevitably focus on how it can improve the quality of its candidates.

Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg was a former member of Campbell Newman’s one-term state government, losing his seat of Kallangur in the 2015 landslide to Labor. Now he’s pushed the LNP vote down by 10 per cent.

Brett Whiteley had lost Braddon at both federal and state level, and was installed by the Tasmanian Liberal Party executive against the wishes of local branch members. He did slightly better than Big Trev, with a swing against him of 2.28 per cent.

The snap by-elections offered little time to pre-select new candidates and get them up and running. But the results tonight show failed candidates can’t be depended upon to improve their showing second or third time around.

As one Liberal Party member in Braddon told The Australian of Mr Whiteley: “When Malcolm Turnbull’s there he’s buzzing around like a blowfly at a long drop, but other than that, you barely see him,” the member said.

The Liberals are committed to running Georgina Downer in Mayo again at the upcoming federal election, but there will be some in the party who will question that decision.

Sid Maher 8.24pm: Can company tax cuts be sold?

The electoral saleability of Malcolm Turnbull’s company tax cuts will come under question as a result of the poor primary vote showing tonight by the LNP in the Longman by-election.

Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne said the government would attempt to get the latest tranche of its company tax cuts passed when parliament sits again on August 13.

“We’ll be working hard to pass them,’’ Mr Pyne told Sky News.

But Labor strategist Bruce Hawker said the result in Longman, which Labor appears on track to win, showed that people were listening to Bill Shorten’s policies ahead of the government’s big business tax cuts.

Labor has attacked the big business tax cut as a $17billion tax for the banks.

Senior Coalition figures will be dismayed by the collapse in the LNP primary vote in Longman tonight. Candidate Trevor Ruthenberg was polling only 26 per cent a fall of 10 per cent.

Mr Pyne put the disappointing LNP vote down to local factors including the fact that Mr Ruthenberg’s campaign was derailed by his incorrectly claiming to have received a defence service medal. He apologised for the mistake.

Mr Ruthenberg was also a member of the Newman state government which was unpopular in the area.

Mr Pyne said the medal’s controversy “messed up our message’’.

Luke Griffiths 8.14pm: Downer set to concede in Mayo

Amid a downbeat mood at her post-election event, Georgina Downer is expected to soon concede defeat in Mayo.

She trails Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie by 16 points on a two-party preferred basis, 58 to 42 per cent, with almost 40 per cent of the vote counted.

Ms Sharkie said minutes ago that she would not claim victory until Ms Downer conceded defeat.

Matthew Denholm 8.13pm: Labor celebrates in Tasmania

The celebrations are now well underway at Labor’s by-election function in Braddon, with Labor victory virtually assured.

A rowdy crowd is already assembled, eagerly awaiting a victory speech by Labor candidate Justine Keay, who is expected to address the faithful shortly.

Beer has been spilt and a podium erected in anticipation of Ms Keay’s entry to the Ulverstone Surf Life Saving Club.

With more than 60% of the vote counted, Ms Keay is ahead of Liberal challenger Brett Whiteley by about 52% to 48% on a two-candidate-preferred basis.

Mr Whiteley has a lead on primary votes of 38.7% to Ms Keay on 36.7% and independent Craig Garland, in third place, on 11.4%.

Mr Garland, an outspoken fisherman, has stolen votes from both major parties, causing a first preference swing against Labor of about 4% and against the Liberals of about 2.2%.

Ben Packham 8.03pm: Longman ‘a litmus test’ for strategists

The result in Longman has been a key focus for strategists on both sides, who see the seat as a litmus test for a string of Queensland seats at the upcoming federal election.

Labor frontbencher Ed Husic said the result in Longman would be alarming for a host of LNP MPs in marginal Queensland seats.

“Mal Brough won the seat in ‘04 on 51 per cent primary. LNP right now are on 26. That is huge,” he said.

He said Peter Dutton (Dickson), Michelle Landry (Capricornia), Ross Vasta (Bonner) and Bert van Manen (Forde) “will be sweating quite a bit”.

Sid Maher 8.02pm: Richo calls Longman for Labor

Former Labor powerbroker and political commentator Graham Richardson says he can’t see how Labor will lose Longman tonight.

“You’ve got to say on the probabilities that Labor will get up,’’ Mr Richardson said.

“The trend is too big.’’

Mr Richardson said he believed tonight’s results meant that Bill Shorten’s leadership was safe.

He also said one of the big drivers in the fall in the LNP vote was the medal controversy which ensnared LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg.

Mr Ruthenberg attracted controversy for wrongly claiming he earned a prestigious defence service medal. He apologised for the mistake.

Sid Maher 8pm: Booths close in WA

Polling booths have closed in the Western Australian seats of Fremantle and Perth.

Both seats are almost certain to be won by Labor with the Coalition not contesting.

In Fremantle, Josh Wilson — who had to resign over the dual citizenship fiasco — is expected to beat the Greens Dorinda Cox and reclaim his place in federal parliament.

Patrick Gorman is expected to become the next Labor member for Perth. The Perth by-election was sparked by the resignation of Labor MP Tim Hammond, who quit for family reasons.

Luke Griffiths 7.59pm: Sharkie well ahead in Mayo

Rebekha Sharkie leads Georgina Downer by 16 points on a two-party preferred basis, 58 to 42 per cent, with almost 26.5 per cent of votes counted.

Sid Maher 7.49pm: One Nation a force in Qld

One Nation is showing that it will be a force to be reckoned with in Queensland in the looming federal election campaign claiming more than 15 per cent of the vote in Longman in early counting.

Despite Pauline Hanson going on a cruise and being present as a cardboard cutout at polling places yesterday in the outer metropolitan Brisbane seat, One Nation’s vote has so far increased by more than 6 per cent in early counting.

This is despite questions during the campaign about whether candidate Matthew Stephen had paid bills in a business he owned before entering politics.

Worryingly for the Turnbull government, One Nation appears to be taking voters from its candidate rather than Labor.

Former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts carries a cardboard cutout of senator Pauline Hanson in Caboolture. Photo: AAP
Former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts carries a cardboard cutout of senator Pauline Hanson in Caboolture. Photo: AAP

LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg’s primary vote in Longman is down nearly 10 per cent while Labor’s primary vote is up 4 per cent.

One Nation directed preferences to Labor at the last federal election and this cost LNP MP Wyatt Roy his job. But this time One Nation has directed preference to the LNP.

Labor strategist Bruce Hawker told Sky News that its preference flows would prove decisive in tonight’s outcome.

Labor has been banking on a preference flow of 60 per cent to the Coalition and 40 per cent to its candidate Susan Lamb.

But Coalition frontbencher Christopher Pyne is suggesting that in one large pre-polling booth preferences are flowing through to the LNP at 70 per cent.

Mr Hawker said if the preferences flows were higher than expected to the Coalition it could change the outcome.

One Nation's candidate for the seat of Longman Matthew Stephen (right) and Pauline Hanson's chief of staff James Ashby hand out how-to-vote cards outside a polling booth in Burpengary, north of Brisbane. Photo: AAP
One Nation's candidate for the seat of Longman Matthew Stephen (right) and Pauline Hanson's chief of staff James Ashby hand out how-to-vote cards outside a polling booth in Burpengary, north of Brisbane. Photo: AAP

Luke Griffiths 7.45pm: Downer heading for defeat

Mayo candidate Georgina Downer has arrived at her own event.

Greeted by around 80 supporters, Ms Downer did not comment on early poll results which suggest she is headed for a large defeat at the hands of Rebekha Sharkie.

Rosie Lewis 7.43pm: Big Trev a ‘big flop’

Ben Packham 7.42pm: Swings to Labor confirmed

Here’s a quick update on the 2PP count in the two head-to-head seats.

In Longman: ALP 53.84 per cent, LNP 46.16 per cent, with 10.79 per cent counted — a 3.05 per cent swing to Labor.

In Braddon: ALP 52.54 per cent, Lib 47.46, with 34.17 per cent counted — a 0.34 per cent swing to Labor.

Luke Griffiths 7.36pm: Sharkie set to win Mayo

Early results suggest Rebekha Sharkie is set for a comfortable victory over her Liberal rival Georgina Downer.

Around 80 people, including senators Anne Ruston and James Paterson and South Australian Liberal Party vice president Alex Antic, are at Ms Downer’s event at the Barker Hotel in Mt Barker.

Rosie Lewis 7.34pm: Shorten ‘on right track’

Queensland Labor senator Anthony Chisholm says Bill Shorten has met every “test” set for him as party faithful begin celebrating tonight’s result in Longman.

Senator Chisholm anticipated candidate Susan Lamb would get about 40 per cent of One Nation preferences despite the minor party preferencing the Liberal National Party above Labor.

If, as expected, the party held onto both Longman and Braddon it would send a message “we’re on the right track”.

“Bill has been performing really strongly as Opposition Leader,” Senator Chisholm told The Australian.

“Every time there’s a test set for Bill he meets it. He did it in Batman, he’s done it today despite being under pressure and we broadly know we’re on the right track.

“We’re not going to get ahead of ourselves, as we know they are tough fights and when you look at the published polling they were going to indicate a really tight result but … what the Labor Party’s representing, what Bill is talking about is what the Australian people are wanting from an alternative government.”

Sid Maher 7.30pm: Pyne says Braddon ‘looks tough’

Government frontbencher Christopher Pyne has conceded that Braddon is beginning to look tough for the government to win as the Liberals candidate Brett Whiteley continues to trail.

With 18 per cent of two party votes counted, Labor’s Justine Keay is leading Mr Whiteley 52.73 per cent to 47.27 per cent.

“I think we’d rather be in Justine Keay’s position at the moment,’’ Mr Pyne said.

Matthew Denholm 7.26pm: Keay likely winner in Braddon

Labor’s Justine Keay appears very likely to have won the race for Braddon, barring any late shifts in the count.

With more than 17% of the vote counted, Ms Keay leads Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley on a two candidate-preferred basis 53% to 47%.

The win if confirmed will be down to preferences from independent Craig Garland, who has 11% of first preferences, behind Ms Keay’s 36% and Mr Whiteley’s 38%.

Liberal sources agreed it was “more than likely” Ms Keay would take the seat she held until her resignation over a dual citizenship.

Mr Garland, who is preferencing Labor ahead of Liberal, was unaware of his strong showing, telling The Australian he was not near a screen because he was “on cooking duties”.

Ben Packham 7.25pm: Green calls Longman for Labor

The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green has called Longman for Labor.

“Our computer is using its normal algorithm to say that Susan Lamb will win that seat,” he said.

Ben Packham 7.22pm: Big trouble for Big Trev

It looks like Liberal candidate Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg’s larger than life persona hasn’t translated into electoral support in Longman.

The Liberal vote is 8.9 per cent down in the seat, while Labor’s Susan Lamb is riding a 4 per cent swing towards her.

The One Nation vote has surged to 15.53 per cent of the vote, up more than 6 per cent.

At 7.20pm, with about 13. 5 per cent of ballots counted, the 2PP count has Ms Lamb ahead with a swing of 4.14 per cent towards her.

Ben Packham 7.17pm: Braddon called for Keay

The ABC’s veteran election analyst Antony Green is calling Braddon for the ALP’s Justine Keay.

With 23.8 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Keay has a 1.3 per cent swing towards her.

“We have used the same formula to give away seats for 25 years — elections, state, federal, territory — and on that formula, this seat is ready to give away,” Green said.

Labor candidate for Braddon Justine Keay.
Labor candidate for Braddon Justine Keay.

Luke Griffiths 7.15pm: Sharkie is in the house

Rebekha Sharkie has just arrived at her own event, where she was greeted by a large round of applause.

Ms Sharkie said she was “relieved” the by-election campaign was over.

“It’s been a very, very long campaign and I just can’t thank my army of volunteers enough,” she said.

“It’s been a huge effort.”

7.10pm: Keay pulls ahead in Braddon

With about 9 per cent of ballots counted in Braddon, Brett Whiteley is ahead on primary votes, but Justine Keay is ahead on a two-party preferred basis, at 54.32 per cent to Mr Whiteley’s 45.68.

Independent Craig Garland has 16.26 per cent of the primary vote, with his preferences flowing strongly to Labor.

Labor’s Ed Husic said he’d been told by ALP scrutineers in Braddon that independent Craig Garland’s preferences were flowing to the ALP at a rate of about 75 per cent.

7pm: Labor could be in the hunt: Swan

Early counting in Longman will boost Labor’s hopes of retaining the seat with One Nation polling strongly and appearing to take votes from the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg.

With about 4 per cent of the vote counted One Nation is polling more than 15 per cent which is about 5 per cent higher than its vote at the 2016 general election.

The early counting suggested a swing of about 10 per cent against the LNP on primary votes with Labor’s Susan Lamb getting an early swing of 6 per cent.

However with One Nation giving preferences to the LNP it is too early to write off Mr Ruthenberg.

Incoming ALP president Wayne Swan, speaking in Longman, said if Labor could reach 40 per cent primary vote in the seat, it would be “in the hunt”.

“You have to understand that at the last election our primary vote was 35. We only won because of those One Nation preferences,” he told the ABC.

One Nation put Labor last on its ballot in Longman this time around.

“Now One Nation is completely in bed with the Liberal Party. So that’s what the Labor Party is battling in this by-election,” Mr Swan said.

The mood at the Caboolture RSL, where Labor volunteers are waiting for Ms Lamb, is nothing short of jubilant. When the first counting appears on a television screen showing a swing towards Lamb, cheering and applause rings out. It feels like a party.

Luke Griffiths 6.50pm: Sharkie supporters gather for likely victory party

With polling booths now closed in Mayo, a number of Rebekha Sharkie supporters have started to arrive at the Centre Alliance’s event at Wallis Cinemas in Mt Barker, 35km south

east of Adelaide. Bob Katter was among around 150 to have already arrived at Ms

Sharkie’s event.

The Kennedy MP said he expected Ms Sharkie to comfortably defeat Liberal Party candidate Georgina Downer. Mr Katter paid tribute to his cross bench colleague, describing her as

“just a little battler against the big boys”.

“The significance of a Sharkie victory would be that people are starting to accept third parties and their right to be in Parliament,” he said.

“Parts of Australia are starting to break away from the two-party system.”

MP Bob Katter arrives at the Mt Barker Wallis theatre in Adelaide
MP Bob Katter arrives at the Mt Barker Wallis theatre in Adelaide

Ben Packham 6.45pm: Whiteley ahead in first booth

In Braddon, with 2040 ballots counted, Liberal Brett Whiteley is on 41.76 per cent, followed by Labor’s Justine Keay has 26.13 per cent of the vote.

Independent Craig Garland, a local fisherman, is sitting on just under 17.89 per cent of the vote.

The initial counting is from small booths in rural areas of the seat.

Liberal Eric Abetz revealed during the campaign Mr Garland had a conviction for a 1994 assault of an off-duty policewoman.

Liberal Trent Zimmerman said Mr Abetz was right to raise the issue.

“I think that the election campaign character of candidates is going to be an issue,’ he said.

“In this case you have a candidate who did have a conviction for assaulting a female off-duty police officer. I think it would be unusual for that not to be raised.”

Sid Maher 6.30pm: Polls close in Mayo

Polls have closed in the South Australian seat of Mayo which is widely expected to be retained by Rebekha Sharkie who ran as part of the Nick Xenophon team in 2016 but switched to the Centre Alliance after he left federal politics to run for a state seat.

Polling has consistently put Ms Sharkie ahead of the Liberals candidate Georgina Downer, the daughter of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, with many pundits expecting that she will increase her margin.

Ms Sharkie defeated the then Liberal MP Jamie Briggs in 2016 and held the seat with a 5 per cent margin.

Ms Downer’s campaign has been hampered by the fact that she had lived in Victoria and moved back to the area to contest the election.

However she intends to run again in the federal election and the Liberals are more hopeful of prevailing in this contest.

Government frontbencher Christopher Pyne has used the predicted closeness in Longman and Braddon to attack Bill Shorten’s leadership of the Labor Party arguing that a government win in any by-election would represent a once in a 100 year event.

But with polls suggesting a cliffhanger in Longman and Braddon Mr Pyne said the closeness of the contests reflected on the lack of popularity of Mr Shorten’s tax policies.

“I think it is amazing that we are even talking about winning any by-election, Mr Pyne said.

“The fact that we are even at that point reflects how poorly Bill Shorten is travelling,’’ Mr Pyne told Sky News.

However Labor frontbencher Richard Marles told Sky News that Mr Shorten had travelled to the by-election contests twice as much as Malcolm Turnbull and this showed that he was leading from the front.

Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie at the Mt Barker High School polling centre in Adelaide.
Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie at the Mt Barker High School polling centre in Adelaide.

Rosie Lewis 6.20pm: Balloons up, all that’s missing is a win

Liberal National Party candidate for Longman Trevor Ruthenberg isn’t expected at his election night function for some time but the scene has been set. We’re told we should expect to see LNP heavyweights from the federal and state parties. Meanwhile volunteers have begun arriving after polls closed. No one is brave enough to predict a result but one party member said today’s Newspoll felt pretty spot on, which would see Labor hold on to Longman.

Up the road in Caboolture is the Labor camp, where a sea of red has taken over a room at the local RSL. Federal Labor president Wayne Swan is here mingling with volunteers.

The scene in Caboolture where Labor supporters have gathered for the count.
The scene in Caboolture where Labor supporters have gathered for the count.
Preparations get under way for an LNP election night function in Longman.
Preparations get under way for an LNP election night function in Longman.

Ben Packham 6.15pm: Results on a ‘knife edge’

Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman, in the ABC studio for the count, said tonight’s results were on a “knife-edge”.

“It’s a flip of a coin at this stage as to which way they are going to land. The polling that I’ve been told about is in the margin of error. We’re hoping for a surprise result in Mayo, but Longman and Braddon are clearly the two closest,” he said.

Labor MP Ed Husic also predicted a “very tight contest”, particularly in Longman.

“There we had especially the impact of the One Nation campaign that really normally would focus on bagging out both major parties. This time it directed its fire purely to Labor,” he told the ABC.

Sid Maher 6pm: Polls close, count begins in Braddon, Longman

Polls have closed at 6pm in the seats of Longman and Braddon which are expected to be the closest contests in tonight’s Super Saturday by-elections.

Counting will now begin in what scrutineers are tipping will be a tight contest.

A Newspoll published in The Weekend Australian this morning had Labor leading in both seats narrowly by a narrow 51 per cent 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Candidates from both major parties have been congratulated for their campaign efforts.

5.20pm: Longman result may be unclear

Candidates are predicting there may be no clear result in the seat of Longman at the end of counting on Saturday night.

“The only result I can guarantee is that I’ll be having a beer at the golf club tonight with my volunteers,” One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen told Sky News. LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg said Saturday’s Newspoll in The Weekend Australian - which has Labor’s Susan Lamb ahead of him 51-49 - had not changed his mind.

“I think it’s going to be sometime till we see a result. It’s that tight,” he said while handing out how-to-vote cards alongside Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

The Longman by-election is one of the tightest of the five Super Saturday by- elections and seen concerted campaigning by both Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

Before Ms Lamb was forced out of parliament because of dual citizenship issues, she held the seat on a razor-thin margin of 0.8 per cent. Ms Lamb has won over at least one new voter - her 18-year-old son George. The pair cast their votes at Dakabin State High School in the seat north of Brisbane on Saturday morning.

But Mr Ruthernberg won’t be able to vote for himself as he lives outside the electorate.

- AAP

Rosie Lewis 4.55pm: Shorten to spend election night in Longman

The punters at Caboolture State High School were vastly outnumbered by volunteers and members of the media as Bill Shorten chased a few votes with his candidate Susan Lamb in the final hours of the Longman by-election campaign.

Malcolm Turnbull labelled him “the missing man” yesterday after the Opposition Leader spent the final full day of campaigning off the hustings in Melbourne, but today he has made appearances in the two marginal seats he needs to keep to preserve his leadership (Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania).

Asked if the by-election in Longman was a test of his leadership, Mr Shorten said: “What it is is a test for whether or not this country wants more of the same under Malcolm Turnbull, tax cuts for big banks, or whether or not we want the government to do better. This is a simple proposition – hospitals before banks.”

Mr Shorten chose to spend by-election night in Longman, situated just outside of Brisbane, after today’s Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian, showed Labor ahead 51-49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Labor’s primary vote is also at 40 per cent under Mr Shorten, compared to 35.4 per cent at the 2016 election. The primary vote increases to 45 per cent if Anthony Albanese was the party’s leader.

Labor leader Bill Shorten and the party's candidate for the seat of Longman Susan Lamb hand out how-to-vote cards outside a polling booth in Caboolture, north of Brisbane.
Labor leader Bill Shorten and the party's candidate for the seat of Longman Susan Lamb hand out how-to-vote cards outside a polling booth in Caboolture, north of Brisbane.

4.40pm: PM plays down prospects

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, campaigning in Braddon today, has again talked down the Liberals’ prospects given no government has won a seat from the opposition at a by-election since 1920.

“Let’s be fair dinkum about it, Labor should be miles ahead,” he said. “What that tells you is that many ... are disgusted and appalled by Labor’s lies.” Mr Turnbull said Labor had misled voters across the country over health spending cuts - a similar criticism levelled at the opposition at the 2016 federal election which ended in a one-seat majority for the coalition. Labor leader Bill Shorten campaigned with his candidate Justine Keay in Braddon on Saturday, seizing underdog status for the opposition.

“Labor started these campaigns well behind,” he said.

“Anyone who tells you they know what’s happening is having a lend of you.”

4.05pm: Bill Shorten has arrived in Longman to support Susan Lamb

3.15pm: Candidate slams AEC effort

Labor’s candidate for the federal seat of Perth has accused the Australian Electoral Commission of not doing enough to raise awareness of the by-election among voters.

Patrick Gorman, a former Kevin Rudd staffer and state secretary who masterminded Labor’s victorious 2017 WA election campaign, says the AEC should have put out their advertisements earlier rather than “just the last few days”.

He says he’ll have an “adult conversation” with them about their efforts.

“I was at a booth over in North Perth today where someone said they hadn’t received anything in their letter box from the Electoral Commission, so obviously they need to look at their distribution,” Mr Gorman told reporters on Saturday.

“I think they could do more in online communications.” Pre-polling pointed to a low voter turnout for Perth and also Fremantle, which Labor’s Josh Wilson is expected to easily win back after being forced to resign over his dual citizenship.

Labor candidate for Perth Patrick Gorman at the Highgate polling station.
Labor candidate for Perth Patrick Gorman at the Highgate polling station.

2.08pm: ‘You’ve got your 30 seconds of relevance’

Malcolm Turnbull has had a run-in with a voter while on a walkabout in the seat of Braddon.

The PM, trailed by the media, was addressing a Coalition campaign poster headed “Facts” with Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley when a man in a black scarf challenged Mr Turnbull’s assertion that “all those Labor party posters (over there) are full of lies and what we do is tell the truth.”

“You do not,” the man, understood to be a former Greens candidate, told him.

“We do,” the PM shot back.

“Well it’s misguided truth,” the man said, before raising the issue of high elective surgery rates in Tasmania.

Wagging his finger at the man, Mr Turnbull quoted hospital spending increases before attempting to shut down the exchange, telling the voter: “At least accept that you’ve acknowledged that what I’m telling you is the truth.”

“No I haven’t.”

Mr Whiteley later stepped in to usher the man off, telling him: “You’ve got your 30 seconds of relevance.”

Video of the awkward exchange has since been posted to social media.

1.28pm: Braddon descends to insults

The final hours of campaigning in the Braddon by-election have descended to insults as both major parties say the result is on a knife-edge and leaders return today to sway swinging voters.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Liberal candidate for Braddon, Brett Whiteley, campaign in Penguin this morning. Photo: Aaron Francis
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Liberal candidate for Braddon, Brett Whiteley, campaign in Penguin this morning. Photo: Aaron Francis

The Liberal candidate for the northwest Tasmanian seat, Brett Whiteley, attacked his Labor ­opponent yesterday, accusing her and Labor leader Bill Shorten of lacking “moral integrity”.

Justine Keay hit back, accusing the former Liberal MP of having a track record of voting for measures that increased the cost of ­living and healthcare and hurt pensioners.

Liberal sources say track polling consistently shows Mr Whiteley, who lost the marginal seat to Ms Keay in 2016, will score a significant lead on primary votes.

They are nervous it may not be enough to counter what is expected to be a favourable preference flow to Ms Keay, who triggered the by-election by resigning over dual citizenship.

Read the full story here.

This morning, Mr Turnbull accused Ms Keay of lying to voters about Coalition health funding.

“Labor doesn’t have a message on health — they have a lie on health,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Ulverstone, before heading to the small town of Penguin.

“Whether it is here or in Longman (Queensland), they are lying … funding for hospitals in Tasmania has increased by 42%. Labor’s out there saying we’ve cut funding, so it’s a lie.”

Ms Keay accused the Prime Minister of only visiting the electorate since the by-election was called.

Campaigning alongside Bill Shorten, she mocked Mr Whiteley for not being able to vote today, as he lived just outside the electorate.

“My opponent can’t even vote for himself,” she said.

Labor candidate Justine Keay and opposition leader Bill Shorten (centre) speak to a voter at Nixon Street primary school this morning. Photo: Aaron Francis
Labor candidate Justine Keay and opposition leader Bill Shorten (centre) speak to a voter at Nixon Street primary school this morning. Photo: Aaron Francis

12.20pm: Labor’s lay down miseres

Labor is certain to win two of Super Saturday’s five by-elections — Perth and Fremantle — as the focus and fight remains on Longman, Braddon and Mayo in the east.

The Liberal party decided against contesting Perth and Fremantle, leaving it clear for the Labor candidates to almost certainly win but raising concerns of a poor voter turnout.

Fremantle Labor candidate Josh Wilson, who forced the by-election when he had to quit over dual citizenship issues, hopes to improve the 41 per cent primary vote he secured at the last federal election.

Labor’s Fremantle candidate Josh Wilson. Photo: AAP
Labor’s Fremantle candidate Josh Wilson. Photo: AAP

“I certainly had people who identified as Liberal voters saying that they weren’t sure what to do,” he said today.

“I sympathised with them, I pointed out the fact that I’ve been a very hard working local member in the past, that I’ve grown up in this community, that I haven’t got horns, that maybe they need to make an exception and it will be our secret.”

Labor is expected to also easily win the seat of Perth, which the Liberals also are not contesting, despite the slimmer margin of 3.3 per cent. Candidate Patrick Gorman is a former Kevin Rudd staffer and state secretary, and masterminded Labor’s 2017 WA election campaign, which delivered a thumping victory.

AAP

11.45am: Downer will re-contest Mayo

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer has vowed to stand again in Mayo at next year’s federal poll, win or lose in today’s by-election.

Ms Downer says she’s still hopeful of winning at the same time conceding she’s come into the by-election campaign as the underdog.

“That’s my absolute commitment, I’ll be running next year,” she told reporters after casting her ballot at Stirling.

“I’m hopeful I’ll be the member next week, but I will be running next year.”

Ms Downer said had been heartened by the support she’d received with voters in Mayo responding to the federal government’s clear vision for the future.

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer (right) and her father, Alexander Downer. Photo: AAP
Liberal candidate Georgina Downer (right) and her father, Alexander Downer. Photo: AAP

“We’re about much more than the here and now. I’m about the plan for five, 10 years, 20 years down the track because that’s what this area needs,” she said. “I can deliver that because I am part of the party of government.”

Recent polling in Mayo has Ms Downer trailing her Centre Alliance opponent Rebekha Sharkie who won the seat in 2016 but was forced to resign after being caught up in the citizenship saga.

Ms Sharkie cast her ballot at Mt Torrens as the polls opened today and said she was both nervous and hopeful but confident she had done all she could to be returned to federal parliament.

“My team of volunteers, we’ve given this everything we possibly can,” she said. “You can only be hopeful. You can only be optimistic but ultimately we’ll know the result at the end of today.”

AAP

11.30am: Mum’s the word in Longman

Labor’s Susan Lamb has won over at least one new voter in Longman — her 18-year- old son George.

The pair cast their votes at Dakabin State High School in the seat north of Brisbane this morning.

Ms Lamb, whose dual citizenship issues forced the by-election, is in a tight fight with former state Newman government MP Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg. But Mr Ruthernberg won’t be able to vote for himself as he lives outside the electorate.

Ms Lamb has good reason to be smiling after a long and brutal campaign. According to the Newspoll published in today’s The Weekend Australian, she leads Mr Ruthenberg 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis.

That’s the reverse of other polls this week that had Mr Ruthenberg slightly ahead of Ms Lamb around 51-49.

The Newspoll shows the LNP could only win if it secures 80 per cent of One Nation preferences.

Before Ms Lamb was forced out of parliament, she held the seat on a razor-thin margin of 0.8 per cent.

AAP

11.15am: Democracy sausage time

Malcolm Turnbull yesterday became the latest to join the pantheon of Pollies Who Look Like Aliens Around Regular Foodstuff by tackling a meat pie — with cutlery.

Thankfully, there was no cutlery in sight when Opposition Leader Bill Shorten tucked into a democracy sausage this morning. Unfortunately, we have no photographic proof that he didn’t eat the said democracy sausage from the middle ... like he did last time.

Matthew Denholm 11am: ‘Labor has a lie on health’

Federal leaders are making a last-minute appeal to voters in the Tasmanian by-election seat of Braddon today, as both played down the implications of Super Saturday for their leaderships.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull crossed paths with Labor’s candidate for the northwest Tasmanian marginal seat in Devonport this morning, before accusing Justine Keay of lying to voters about Coalition health funding.

“Labor doesn’t have a message on health — they have a lie on health,” Mr Turnbull told reporters in Ulverstone, before heading to the small town of Penguin.

“Whether it is here or in Longman (Queensland), they are lying … funding for hospitals in Tasmania has increased by 42%. Labor’s out there saying we’ve cut funding, so it’s a lie.”

Newspoll today shows Ms Keay ahead of Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley 51% to 49%, after the flow of preferences from minor parties and independent Craig Garland.

Read the full story here.

10.20am: ‘They’re having a lend of you’

Labor appears set to hold its four seats as almost half a million voters go to the polls in a Super Saturday of by-elections.

Despite earlier signs the Liberal Party could end a 98-year drought of governments winning seats from oppositions at by-elections, polls are pointing to Labor retaining the knife-edge seats of Longman and Braddon, while comfortably hanging on to Perth and Fremantle.

But Labor leader Bill Shorten, whose position may depend on the outcome, was underplaying the latest Newspoll figures, published in today’s The Weekend Australian.

“Labor started these campaigns well behind,” he told reporters in Devonport where he was campaigning with candidate Justine Keay.

“Anyone who tells you they know what’s happening is having a lend of you.”

The latest Newspoll puts the two-party preferred figure in Longman and Braddon at 51-49 in Labor’s favour.

The polls will be a test for Mr Shorten’s leadership, with any losses triggering a rethink of Labor’s electoral strategy and some saying a leadership change should also be considered.

The Newspoll found Labor’s primary vote would have risen five points to 45 per cent in Longman if Anthony Albanese was leader rather than Mr Shorten. In Braddon, the figure was 47 per cent.

In two-party terms, this would translate to a comfortable lead of 55-45 to Labor in both seats.

Mr Shorten dodged direct questions on his future if Labor lost any of the by-elections saying te message would be “we didn’t get enough votes. Beyond that, let’s not give up yet. ”

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who was also in Devonport, said Labor had run “a campaign that is based on lies” on health funding and other issues, and took another swipe at candidates who caused the by-elections because of dual citizenship issues.

“They’ve got candidates who sat in parliament for months drawing parliamentary salaries at public expense when they knew they were not entitled to be there and now they are running again the same lies they ran in 2016,” Mr Turnbull said.

AAP

9.35am: ‘It’s not unlosable’, Sharkie says

Voters in the former-blue ribbon seat of Mayo will have the chance to return the electorate to the Liberal fold at Saturday’s by-election.

But candidate Georgina Downer would need to discredit consecutive polls to take the seat from Centre Alliance MP-turned-candidate Rebekha Sharkie. Voting booths in the seat centred on the Adelaide Hills are now open, in one of the five Super Saturday by-elections mostly forced by the dual citizenship fiasco.

The by-election was triggered after Ms Sharkie — who won Mayo for the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016 — became caught up in the dual citizenship saga and was forced to resign.

She was the first non-Liberal to hold the seat since its 1984 creation and is hoping to repeat the result.

Mayo candidates Rebekha Sharkie (left) and Georgina Downer (background) yesterday. Photo: AAP
Mayo candidates Rebekha Sharkie (left) and Georgina Downer (background) yesterday. Photo: AAP

Her opponent, Ms Downer, is the daughter of Howard government foreign minister Alexander Downer, who held the seat for the Liberal Party for 24 years. A recent poll in The Advertiser put her ahead 59-41 on a two-party basis while a ReachTEL poll of more than 700 voters returned a similar result on Wednesday night.

Despite the stark result, neither candidate has been willing to give weight to the poll.

“My intention is to be successful tomorrow and, of course, run next year for re- election as the member for Mayo,” Ms Downer said.

“I expected this would be a difficult campaign but it’s been a really fantastic time out here in Mayo and I’ve had a great reception in the community.”

Ms Sharkie, the clear favourite, denied she was in a “unlosable position”. “I am so nervous here today,” she told reporters on Friday.

“The poll that counts is the poll (on Saturday).”

Counting will start after polling closes at 6pm local time.

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer speaks to commuters at the Mt Barker bus interchange in Mt Barker. Photo: Tracey Nearmy
Liberal candidate Georgina Downer speaks to commuters at the Mt Barker bus interchange in Mt Barker. Photo: Tracey Nearmy

AAP

Matthew Denholm 9.15am: Swing away, Stowport

In a land of swinging voters, few swing quite so far or as often as the people of Stowport.

The hamlet sits within the federal seat of Braddon, in Tasmania’s northwest and west, which is well enough known as one of the ­nation’s most fickle electorates, changing hands with dizzying regularity.

In 2016, Labor’s Justine Keay snatched Braddon from Liberal Brett Whiteley, who in 2013 took it from the Labor MP of six years, Sid Sidebottom. Before that, it was the Liberals’ Mark Baker for three years, preceded by Mr Sidebottom for six, and before that Liberal Chris Miles, and so on back to the 1950s.

However, in Stowport — nestled behind Burnie, among rolling hills where cattle outnumber people — the local population leads the way in whacking incumbents.

Read Matthew Denholm’s full feature on Braddon here.

Stowport racehorse breeder Kelly Hamilton, who’ll buck the local swinging trend and vote Liberal — “because I always do”. Picture: Aaron Francis
Stowport racehorse breeder Kelly Hamilton, who’ll buck the local swinging trend and vote Liberal — “because I always do”. Picture: Aaron Francis

9am: Snapshot of Fremantle electorate

* By-election triggered by May resignation of Labor’s Josh Wilson over his dual British citizenship.

* Held by Wilson with a 7.5 per cent margin.

* Fremantle is centred on the city, south of Perth.

* Wilson is expected to win, with no Liberal candidate contesting the by-election.

* Seven candidates nominated.

* Key issues: roads, health, WA’s GST share.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (left) with candidate for Fremantle Josh Wilson. Photo: AAP
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (left) with candidate for Fremantle Josh Wilson. Photo: AAP

AAP

8.55am: Snapshot of Perth electorate

* By-election triggered by May resignation of Labor’s Tim Hammond who retired so that he could spend more time with his young family.

* Held by Hammond with a 3.3 per cent margin.

* Perth is based on the central part of the West Australian capital.

* Labor candidate Patrick Gorman, former Kevin Rudd staffer and WA Labor secretary, is expected to win.

* Fifteen candidates have nominated, but no Liberal candidate standing.

* Key issues: education, transport, health, WA’s GST share.

Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan (right) and Labor candidate for Perth Patrick Gorman greet people at Coventry Village, Morley in Perth. Photo: AAP
Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan (right) and Labor candidate for Perth Patrick Gorman greet people at Coventry Village, Morley in Perth. Photo: AAP

AAP

8.50am: Snapshot of Mayo electorate

* By-election triggered by May resignation of Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie over her dual British citizenship.

* Held by Sharkie with a five per cent margin.

* Mayo takes in the Adelaide Hills through to Kangaroo Island.

* Sharkie is expected to retain the seat, but faces a challenge from the Liberals’ Georgina Downer, the daughter of former federal minister Alexander Downer.

* If elected, Downer will be the fourth generation of her family to serve in federal Parliament.

* Seven candidates have nominated, including Labor’s Reg Coutts.

* GetUp! has run a public campaign linking Downer to cuts to the ABC. The Liberals have countered saying voting for Sharkie is the same as voting for Labor.

* Key issues: health, ABC funding, education.

Mayo candidates Rebekha Sharkie (left) and Georgina Downer. Photo: Tracey Nearmy
Mayo candidates Rebekha Sharkie (left) and Georgina Downer. Photo: Tracey Nearmy

AAP

8.45am: Snapshot of Braddon electorate

* By-election triggered by resignation of Labor’s Justine Keay over her dual British citizenship.

* Held by Keay with a 2.2 per cent margin.

* Braddon is situated in northwestern Tasmania, with major centres including Devonport and Burnie.

* Keay is behind in the polls and betting markets, with former Liberal MP Brett Whiteley on track for a narrow win.

* Eight candidates have nominated.

* Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull have campaigned heavily in the seat.

* Key issues: health, job creation, fishing.

Braddon candidates Justine Keay and Brett Whiteley. Photo: Chris Kidd
Braddon candidates Justine Keay and Brett Whiteley. Photo: Chris Kidd

AAP

8.40am: Snapshot of Longman electorate

* By-election triggered by May resignation of Labor’s Susan Lamb over her dual British citizenship.

* Longman is just north of Brisbane, with major centres including Caboolture

* Held by Lamb with a 0.8 per cent margin.

* Lamb is standing again, but faces a tough challenge from Liberal National Party candidate Trevor ‘Big Trev’ Ruthenberg.

* Ruthenberg’s campaign was derailed over his misrepresentation of a military medal, for which he apologised.

* Preferences from One Nation’s Matthew Stephen will be crucial.

* Expecting strong vote for minor parties and independents.

* 11 candidates have nominated.

* Key issues: health, penalty rates, jobs.

The key players in Longman … (from left) LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen and Labor’s Susan Lamb. Photo: AAP
The key players in Longman … (from left) LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen and Labor’s Susan Lamb. Photo: AAP

8.30am: Voting is underway

Voting in Super Saturday by-elections is now underway as The Weekend Australian’s Newspoll shows Labor leader Bill Shorten could escape a leadership challenge with tight wins in two crucial seats.

Labor is battling to hold onto the Queensland seat of Longman and the Tasmanian seat of Braddon. But the latest Newspoll published today has Labor ahead 51-49 on a two-party-preferred count in both seats.

The Newspoll wasn’t all good news for Mr Shorten. It also revealed Labor’s primary vote would have been much stronger in both Braddon and Longman if Anthony Albanese was leader rather than Mr Shorten.

The poll also indicated the Coalition could win Longman, but only if the LNP secured about 80 per cent of One Nation preferences which is considered unlikely.

No opposition has lost a by-election to the government in 98 years, and Labor has conceded Longman and Braddon will be tough to win.

But the party is likely to hold on in by-elections in Perth and Fremantle, while the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie looks set to comfortably reclaim South Australia’s Mayo over Liberal candidate Georgina Downer.

Both Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Mr Shorten are expected to be in Braddon to campaign today.

Catholic schools intervened in Longman on Friday, sending letters to parents highlighting how Labor planned to give more to Catholic schools than the coalition.

In Braddon, preferences from independent Craig Garland will be crucial to deciding whether Liberal Brett Whiteley or Labor’s Justine Keay wins. Voting closes at 6pm local time in all five electorates with counting to start shortly after.

AAP

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/super-saturday-byelections-results-polls-open-in-crucial-seats/news-story/20f2dc2ac810d38acbe208a5a26904b5