Steven Miles abandons Queensland’s future surpluses for pre-election spending blitz

Queensland Labor will abandon its forecast surpluses to splurge on budget handouts in a last ditch bid to win votes ahead of the October state election.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles receives a comforting hand from Industrial Relations Minister Grace Grace during parliament on Tuesday. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Queensland Labor will abandon its forecast surpluses to splurge on budget handouts in a last ditch bid to win votes ahead of the October state election where the third-term government faces a crushing defeat.

Three weeks out from the state budget, Premier Steven Miles said his government was preparing for the biggest spending spree in ­Australian history, geared around cost-of-living relief, which would plunge the state $3bn into the red.

“We will have billions of dollars of initiatives, the biggest cost-of-living package of any state ever in Australia,” the Premier said.

He said the deficit was necessary for the state to dole out more financial relief in addition to the already announced $1000 energy rebate for every household.

Updated Treasury estimates unveiled in parliament on Tuesday show the June 11 budget would wipe a projected $122m surplus in 2024-25 and replace it with a $3bn deficit. In 2025-26, the $91m surplus forecast in December would be reversed with a deficit “less than $1bn”.

Treasury also expects total government debt will surge to $188bn by mid-2027, up from the $147bn predicted in last June’s budget.

Economist Saul Eslake warned that while Queensland was in a better financial position than Victoria or NSW after reaping huge coal royalty windfalls in recent years, that was “not an excuse for wasting money”.

“Giving $1000 to everyone, supposedly in the name of energy bill relief whether they need it or not, I think is an extravagance and is just standard pre-election pork barrelling,” he told The Australian.

Mr Eslake said if the state’s cost-of-living package exceeded $5.5bn, or 0.2 per cent of national GDP, it could keep inflation higher for longer.

Deficits could be justified if budget spending was directed to people genuinely struggling rather than “just throwing money around in the hope of buying votes”, he said.

“Giving lots of money to people who are earning well above average is not genuine cost-of-living relief. In the current context, the risk associated with buying votes in large quantities is that it does add to inflationary pressure and delays the cuts in interest rates that people are hoping for.”

The last state budget delivered $8.2bn in concessions and rebates in 2023-24, and Treasurer Cameron Dick has already flagged the cost-of-living package in the upcoming budget would be larger.

“If our budget has to go into deficit to keep your household budget in surplus, that is what we will do,” he told parliament.

“These are deliberate choices that all political parties must weigh; whether to prioritise people or numbers on a balance sheet, to decide who comes first, ratings agencies or Queensland families.”

Updated Treasury figures were released as new polling revealed Labor’s primary vote had plummeted 14 points on the 2020 election result to 26 per cent, while support for the Liberal National Party lifted seven points in the same period.

The Resolve Strategic poll of 947 Queenslanders, published by the Brisbane Times, shows Opposition Leader David Crisafulli leads Mr Miles as preferred premier by 39 per cent to 28 per cent, with 33 per cent uncommitted.

Attacking the opposition over its small-target strategy and refusal to release a debt-reduction plan, Mr Miles said the LNP was planning to cut jobs and services. “I’m absolutely determined to deliver for Queenslanders and to win the election, but you don’t need to be a pollster to tell from those numbers that the LNP is currently most likely to win,” he said.

LNP Treasury spokesman David Janetzki said: “Never has a Queensland government spent more, borrowed more or taxed more and left Queenslanders with less to show for it”.