Shroud of secrecy over government NDIS modelling

Secret economic modelling underpinning plans to cut $59bn off surging NDIS costs has been blocked from public release by the Albanese government.

NDIS Minister Bill Shorten in May released a five-point plan explaining how the 8 per cent reduction in scheme growth would be achieved. Picture: Martin Ollman/NCA NewsWire

Secret economic modelling underpinning plans to cut $59bn off surging National Disability Insurance Scheme costs has been blocked from public release by the Albanese government.

The NDIS Financial Sustainability Framework – setting an annual growth target of 8 per cent by mid-2026 down from the current 14 per cent yearly rise in costs – was announced by the Prime Minister 11 days before the May 9 budget was released.

The national cabinet framework underpinned billions of dollars in savings and lower deficits in the federal budget but no modelling or explanation of the plan was included in Treasury papers. The budget baked-in $15bn in reduced NDIS growth over the four-year forward estimates.

A Freedom of Information request lodged by The Australian in May sought “specifically any modelling on the costs of the NDIS scheme used to inform the NDIS Financial Sustainability Framework and its annual growth target of eight per cent”.

The Department of Social Services, which oversees the NDIS, took three months to respond to the FOI after consulting with several other departments including Treasury and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.

DSS blocked the request but revealed it had found reference to the NDIS Financial Sustainability Framework modelling in one document – covering just “half a page”. “For completeness, approximately half a page of the document is relevant to your request,’’ the correspondence said.

DSS said the FOI was rejected because “the public interest factors against disclosure (were) more persuasive than the public interest factors favouring disclosure”. The department also claimed the document contained “deliberative matter” because it was prepared to inform a particular policy decision.

The shroud of secrecy over the NDIS modelling comes amid concerns raised by disability advocates that eligibility under the disability scheme will be unnecessarily tightened or that existing participants could be removed.

The Australian understands that the policy framework and modelling for the cost cap was produced by PM&C and Treasury, who effectively blocked the public release of documents. Attempts by DSS to transfer the FOI request to PM&C and Treasury were rejected.

The FOI letter said “given the scope of your request, the department made inquiries to transfer your request to a central agency”. On May 30, DSS took lead on the modelling request.

A DSS spokesman told The Australian that its half-page reference did not relate to broader and more detailed modelling: “The modelling of outlays on participant supports in the NDIS is substantive and comprehensive.”

Opposition NDIS spokesman Michael Sukkar. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

In a joint-statement, DSS, Treasury and PM&C said “as a matter of course, several departments and agencies contribute to modelling and costings of the NDIS”. It said government departments do not negotiate with national cabinet, and the Prime Minister is provided advice from PM&C to “support” agreements with the states and territories.

Questions have been raised inside Labor and the Coalition about how the savings could be achieved without pursuing eligibility changes and renegotiating agreements with the states.

Opposition NDIS spokesman Michael Sukkar said “for a government claiming to be transparent with Australians, they seem to be doing everything to avoid scrutiny”.

“It’s unbelievable that Labor has already banked in the budget an 8 per cent growth cap, down from 14 per cent, without any explanation of how these cuts to the NDIS can be achieved,” Mr Sukkar said.

Mr Sukkar said before the 2022 federal election, Mr Shorten promised that “no plan would go backwards and that it was improper for the Coalition to discuss the sustainability of the scheme”.

“Now sustainability of the scheme is all (NDIS Minister) Bill Shorten can talk about, creating uncertainty and fear for the more than 610,000 Australians receiving NDIS supports, and their families,” he said.

“Labor needs to explain how the arbitrary 8 per cent cap decision was reached, who was consulted, and who will have their NDIS plans cut in order to meet this cap – and also, whether these cuts will be achieved by denying access to the NDIS to vulnerable children with an autism diagnosis.”

Two days after the budget was handed down, Mr Shorten released a five-point plan explaining how the 8.2 percentage reduction in NDIS growth would be achieved over the forward estimates.

Initiatives in the one-page briefing note included investing in the NDIA’s capability and systems, strengthening supported independent living decisions, better supporting participants to manage their plan within budget, supporting the quality and effectiveness of services provided and ensuring a lifetime approach to make plans more transparent and flexible.