Showdown certain unless China, US change tack

CHINA and the US face "a showdown or some kind of confrontation" unless they change their thinking and outlook, says a visiting academic.

Wang Jisi

CHINA and the US face "a showdown or some kind of confrontation" unless they change their thinking and outlook, according to the Dean of the School of International Studies at Beijing University, Wang Jisi.

In an exclusive interview with The Australian yesterday, Professor Wang said neither country had "the intention of fighting each other" but warned that steps were needed to ensure their rivalry was contained and did not spill into conflict.

Visiting Australia to deliver the fifth annual Michael Hintze Lecture at Sydney University, Professor Wang was optimistic about Australia's ability to operate as both a US ally and close economic partner of China.

Asked about US-China ties, he said: "I think the mistrust will not be dispelled and I think it may further deepen between the two societies. I think maybe a crisis may help us to clarify our common interests."

Professor Wang said both nations were operating under the impression "that if we remain strong" and build up forces "then we will win". What was now required was "a quiet and meaningful dialogue" about force deployment in the western Pacific.

His main thesis was the need for both nations to recognise that rivalry was not in their interests and take action to avert any self-fulfilling prophecy.

The US was "in relative decline" compared with China and other rising economies. It needed to adjust its mindset for this transformation. But while "the power balance is tilting towards China", it was a mistake for China "to work on the assumption" that it will "catch up with the US, and we should have no such dreams".

Professor Wang's conclusion was that "if both countries think along those lines, then it is almost inevitable that we will have a showdown or some kind of confrontation".

"There are many indications confirming the mutual distrust between the two societies and the two governments, especially in terms of military competition in the western Pacific. For instance, the US may sell weapons to Taiwan again in the near future and China will have to respond. But if we are accustomed to working together, then people will find a way out," he said.

Professor Wang conceded it may take time before the US and China adjusted their national goals. For the US, this process may take 20 to 30 years. For China, the aspiration should be to compete with itself, aiming "to be better than before".

"China is faced with many more domestic challenges than external challenges," Professor Wang said, highlighting where China's priorities would lie. Despite domestic disturbances, he believed "the authority and power of the Communist Party is still very solid and omnipresent". The message: don't assume any transition to Western democracy.

Hosted in Australia by Alan Dupont, from the Centre for International Security Studies, Professor Wang said Australia was not the only nation in Asia allied to the US and close to China in economic terms. This was the situation with Japan, South Korea and other Southeast Asian nations and he believed this nexus could work for Australia.

On the US fiscal crisis, he said: "The government recognises that it is in China's interest to have a strong US economy." While parts of China's media were "somewhat gloating" about the US's problems, the aim was to have "the US recover sooner or later with the help of China and other economies".