Sheep export ban ‘doesn’t help Labor’, pollster warns

A former Labor strategist turned pollster says the Albanese government’s live sheep export ban won’t help re-election chances.

Kos Samaras is a former Labor Party strategist who now fronts influential lobbying firm Redbridge. Picture NCA NewsWire / Aaron Francis

The Albanese government’s live sheep export ban is unlikely to help the party’s re-election ­chances and risks alienating ­voters in key electoral battlegrounds in Western Australia and regional Queensland, ­according to Labor-aligned pollster Kos Samaras.

It comes as farmers, truck drivers and shearers prepare to unleash a campaign against Labor in key WA electorates that were crucial to Anthony ­Albanese winning government in 2022.

Mr Samaras’ firm, RedBridge, last year conducted market research and polling for the Australian Livestock Exporters Council which found that 50 per cent of people surveyed in WA supported the live sheep export trade.

The respected Victorian pollster, who is a former Labor strategist, said it was a strong figure that exemplified the paradox facing the government in trying to appease voters in capital cities on the east coast.

“It’s an issue that doesn’t help the incumbent Labor government,” Mr Samaras said.

“Western Australians already think Canberra makes decisions on behalf of the east coast and rarely considers opinions of people in WA.

“Fifty per cent is a pretty big number for any particular issue to have support for.

“If you’re making a policy because you think it’s unpopular, that’s not exactly a metric that will tell us that it’s unpopular.

“Half of all those surveyed support the industry, but you would expect it to be only like a third or 20 per cent or very unpopular to require political action.”

The government has regularly cited public opinion as a key driver behind its legislation to ban the live sheep export trade, which is based out of WA, by May 2028.

Before the bill passed through the Senate this week, government MPs and animal welfare activists cited a survey conducted for the RSPCA in May last year, that found 71 per cent of WA respondents supported the government’s policy, which it took to two elections.

The result was starkly different to the poll conducted by RedBridge about the same time that found -5.9 per cent net favourability for the proposed ban, with 25.8 per cent saying it was very unfavourable, 16.1 per cent unfavourable, 22.2 per cent neutral or not sure, 10.2 per cent favourable and 25.7 per cent very favourable.

Mr Samaras said the research suggested “isolationist” voters in the west would recoil at having a homegrown industry shut down by Canberra.

“There’s also a lot of people that live in those electorates who rely on that industry, truck drivers for example,” he said.

“That might have an impact. It doesn’t help. There is a potential of creating this notion that the government is making decisions in Canberra for people on the east coast and not for people in WA.”

RedBridge also polled regional Queensland voters who shared their concerns that live cattle exports would be the next industry in Labor’s sights.

“Again, it will be simply just a reaffirmation that the Labor Party doesn’t culturally represent them,” Mr Samaras said.

“So it makes it much harder for Labor. I think it’s extremely unlikely for Labor to be competitive in any of those (regional Queensland) seats in the next election.”

The next federal election must be held on or before September 27 next year. Labor holds 78 seats in the House of Representatives, just two ahead of the required 76 to form a majority government.