Secret polling told Giddings to toss Greens

PREMIER Lara Giddings decided to dump Labor’s power-sharing deal with the Greens only after seeing secret polling.

PREMIER Lara Giddings decided to dump Labor’s power-sharing deal with the Greens only after seeing secret Labor-commissioned polling that showed the move would add between 3 per cent and 4 per cent to her party’s vote.

Ms Giddings has struggled to fully explain her about-face on the alliance, which she scrapped last month and vowed never to repeat, despite having insisted she would “absolutely” have Greens back in her cabinet.

The Weekend Australian has learned that the ALP late last year commissioned secret polling to test the impact on its statewide vote should it scrap the four-year-old power-sharing alliance.

That polling showed a statewide lift to Labor’s vote of between 3 per cent and 4 per cent - and up to 5 per cent in some electorates if it dumped the two Greens from cabinet and governed alone for the remainder of its term.

The results were similar to those in polling commissioned by unions, also late last year, to aid their push for Ms Giddings to dump the Greens or stand aside for a leader who would. Ms Giddings’s leadership was under renewed strain at the time, with a rank-and-file push to dump the Greens gaining traction within caucus.

While the main leadership contender, Economic Development Minister David O’Byrne, ruled out a challenge, it is understood he would have taken the top job had caucus decided Ms Giddings had to go.

Ms Giddings yesterday confirmed the secret polling and that it played a role in “confirming” her thinking. “During my conversations with Labor Party supporters around the state the consistent message was that Labor had to get rid of the Greens,” she told The Weekend Australian. “Polling only confirmed this thinking; it was never the deciding factor in my decision to terminate the ministerial commissions of Nick McKim and Cassy O’Connor.”

Defenders of Ms Giddings say the debate was about when and how to end the alliance and that she prevailed in her view it should occur only after parliament had risen, to avoid a no-confidence motion and early election.

Ms Giddings yesterday still held out hope the decision to dump the Greens would make a difference to Labor’s vote.

“The response from Labor members and supporters since the decision has been overwhelmingly positive and I am focused on galvanising this support in the lead-up to the March 15 poll,” she said.

However, a poll in The Saturday Mercury today suggests dumping the Greens alliance has made little difference to the Labor vote. The ReachTEL poll of 2912 Tasmanians shows the Liberals on track for majority government with 47.2 per cent of the vote to Labor’s 24.6 per cent, the Greens 17.2 per cent and Palmer United Party 7.5 per cent.

An analysis of the poll’s electorate breakdown suggests the Liberals would win 14 seats, Labor six, the Greens four or five and the PUP potentially one.

The Labor vote of 24.6 per cent statewide is only 1.4 per cent better than its support in a Saturday Mercury/ReachTEL poll taken in November, before Ms Giddings sacked the Greens from cabinet.