Secret modelling undermines Anthony Albanese’s transparency pledge

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers are under pressure to release NDIS economic modelling underpinning the federal budget. Picture: Martin Ollman/NCA NewsWire

Anthony Albanese’s promise to lead a government with integrity and transparency as its bedrock is crumbling under the weight of ­secrecy and on-the-run policy.

The NDIS Financial Sustainability Framework – announced by the Prime Minister days before last year’s May 9 budget – underpinned Treasury forecasts and lower deficits predicated on reining-in ballooning growth in the scheme. The framework has been used to bake in massive reductions in government spending.

Almost nine months after unveiling the plan to contain NDIS annual growth at 8 per cent by 2026, the government refuses to release economic modelling explaining how the ambitious target will be achieved without sweeping structural reforms.

The government has used every trick in the Freedom of Information playbook to block four requests from The Australian. The argument that releasing modelling and ministerial briefings would damage commonwealth-state relations and undermine cabinet deliberations is not credible.

The government has projected savings without explanation and sparked anxiety among NDIS participants who fear major structural changes are the only way to almost halve the annual pace of growth in the scheme. NDIS Minister Bill Shorten was forced to backtrack in June last year after suggesting “it’s not the end of the world” if the government failed to hit its NDIS growth target.

If the NDIS cap is not met, budget forecasts will be upended. Jim Chalmers’ mentor, Wayne Swan, mastered the art of creative budget accounting, famously declaring in his 2012 budget speech that he would deliver “four surpluses”.

Shorten and senior colleagues claim that pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into streamlining systems, improving efficiencies and targeting dodgy operators will save $15.3bn in four years. Out to 2034, the budget promises $74bn in NDIS savings.

NDIS funding arrangements announced by national cabinet last month, coinciding with the release of a major review into the scheme focused on financial sustainability and participant experience, were big on rhetoric but short on detail. In return for multi-billion-dollar GST and health funding sweeteners, the states and territories agreed to double the annual increase in NDIS funding from 2028.

Albanese also promised new “foundational disability services” focused on schools and childcare operators to make the NDIS more sustainable.

The 50-50 funding package had no detail. National cabinet leaders directed Chalmers and state treasurers to work on the funding model and approach for it.

Former senator Rex Patrick – who fought for 12 months to access Albanese’s diary – has made about 280 FOI applications since Labor won office and describes the PM as “the secrecy wolf in transparency sheep clothing”.

For all of Albanese’s promises, there is no difference between Labor and the Coalition when it comes to wasting money and time on blocking FOI requests.