Scott Morrison’s ministers face off, ready to lead

A pincer attack on Labor has set-up a shadow contest between Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton that could determine who emerges as Liberal leader.

Defence Minister Peter Dutton, left, and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Picture: AAP

Scott Morrison’s economic management and national security pincer attack on Labor has set-up a shadow contest between Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton, which could determine who emerges as leader if the Coalition is defeated at the May election.

As the leading moderate and conservative candidates for the Liberal Party leadership in the event of an election loss, Mr Frydenberg and Mr Dutton have joined the Prime Minister in a power triumvirate to drag the ­Coalition back to a winning ­position.

The Treasurer and Defence Minister, both publicly and privately, have made clear their ­ambitions for the top job if Mr Morrison fails to deliver a fourth term of Coalition rule.

Liberal MPs told The Weekend Australian that Mr Morrison’s two-pronged strategy focused on the economy and ­national security had crystallised the post-election contest between Mr Frydenberg and Mr Dutton.

While both have declared their focus is on winning the election, Mr Frydenberg on Monday ­reiterated his ambition to lead the Liberals. “I’ve made no secret that that would be a – you know, something I’d put my hand up for at the right time. But, you know, we’re not looking at that time right now,” he said.

Mr Dutton was the first to stoke post-election leadership rumblings when he told The Weekend Australian last November there was no “sense in being disingenuous about your ­ambition, particularly when you’ve declared it by running in a leadership ballot”.

As the government reeled from leaked text messages and plunging opinion polls, Mr Dutton last week rubbished speculation he was positioning to challenge Mr Morrison.

“One hundred per cent no. I’ve been loyal to Scott Morrison from day one and I continue to be so because I’ve seen what he’s done in taking us through what’s been a difficult situation.”

The inaugural home affairs minister, who replaced Mr Morrison as immigration minister in December 2014 after a torrid stint as health minister in the Abbott government, has never shared a close personal relationship with the Prime Minister.

When Malcolm Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott for the leadership in 2015, it was Mr Morrison who argued Mr Dutton should remain in cabinet, understanding the importance of ­retaining a “tough persona” in the key portfolio.

After Mr Dutton narrowly lost the 2018 leadership contest, sparked by his conservative ­revolt against Mr Turnbull over the national energy guarantee, he kept his spot in the Morrison cabinet and resisted the urge to undermine his rival.

Over the past fortnight, in which Mr Morrison, Mr Frydenberg and Mr Dutton led government attacks on Anthony Albanese and Labor in parliament, Liberal MPs and strategists have watched with keen interest.

The conservative base that backed Mr Dutton in the 2018 leadership contest has changed. His close friend and numbers man Mathias Cormann quit to become OECD secretary-general, Mr Abbott lost his seat and others are retiring or facing ­defeat at the May election.

Liberal MPs Greg Hunt, Christian Porter, Kevin Andrews, Steve Irons, Tony Smith, John Alexander, Nicolle Flint and Andrew Laming are not contesting the election. Leading conservative senators Amanda Stoker, who is close to Mr Dutton, and Eric Abetz face uphill battles to retain their seats in Queensland and Tasmania after falling to third spot on their ballots. Victorian conservative Alan Tudge also faces an uncertain future.

Similar to Labor, which faces a clean-out of its frontbench if Mr Albanese loses, Liberal MPs are advocating for “fresh blood” following the election after three terms in government.

Mr Frydenberg, who is often seen dining with backbench colleagues during sitting weeks, has strategically sought to avoid being pigeonholed as a “moderate or conservative” and maintained relationships across the factional divide.

A senior government source said Mr Dutton – a divisive power­broker in the Queensland Liberal National Party – “has probably not been as good as Josh at maintaining those relationships”. “Dutton has his loyal ­people. They’re rock solid. But Josh works hard, not only (with) those in the partyroom, but those who might be coming into the party room after the election,” a Liberal MP said.

The Weekend Australian ­understands any split in the conservatives, particularly those ­ambitious to climb the ladder, would put Mr Frydenberg ­notionally ahead of Mr Dutton in a leadership ballot.

Mr Frydenberg and Mr Dutton also face tough fights in their Kooyong and Dickson electorates. In his inner-Melbourne seat of Kooyong, Mr Frydenberg is preparing to fend-off challenges from the Greens and the cashed-up Climate 200 group.

Labor and the unions perennially target Mr Dutton’s north-west Brisbane seat

The Treasurer, who has struggled to repeat his 2019 campaign blows on Labor through the pandemic noise and Mr Albanese’s small-target strategy, is under pressure to deliver an election-winning budget on March 29. In the event of global conflict or flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific, Mr Dutton is expected to bludgeon Labor on national security.

A senior government source said it was a “level playing field” in that neither had the experience of Mr Morrison across economic and national security portfolios.

“Morrison will wear the blame if the Coalition loses. But everyone is watching how they perform and who gets one up over the other,” a senior government source said.