Scott Morrison vexed by states in a crisis loop

Prime Minister Scott Morrison holds a National Cabinet meeting with all the State leaders at Parliament House in Canberra on Friday, August 7, 2020. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO

Scott Morrison is at risk of being trapped in a crisis loop not of his making — after five months of virtual lockdown, there is a growing sense of frustration within the community that the path out of the pandemic is no longer clear.

And while the states may be holding the country back, people are looking to the Prime Minister to fix it.

This is Morrison’s paradox. The way out of the economic crisis won’t be clear until the states clear the path.

So long as they keep their borders closed, the economic recovery he and Josh Frydenberg had rightly hoped would have been well under way by now remains in a holding pattern, with businesses spinning their wheels and families relying on stimulus welfare to stay out of poverty.

The politics have become complicated for the federal ­government.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison provides an update after the National Cabinet meeting on July 10. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Voters appear to support the right of provincial leaders to keep their borders closed for health reasons, which still remains the chief concern for most people.

At the same time, they are looking to Morrison and the federal government to look after the economics and provide the macro picture of when this will all be over. The two are mutually ­exclusive.

Morrison himself is also clearly getting frustrated with the states, and it is showing.

Having enjoyed five months leading a unified national cabinet, the states are beginning to break ranks.

His mind is turning to the budget, now just six weeks away. And this will only compound the ­vexation. Planning for a budget of nat­ional reconstruction is being held partly to ransom by provincial politicking.

With Queensland going to an election in October and West Australians heading to the polls in March, there is little prospect of their borders coming down any time soon. Similarly with Victoria, which has a legitimate reason to remain closed for the short term.

The latest Newspoll may reflect the depth of this impossible situation for Morrison, who has also moved in the past two weeks to take ownership of the Victorian aged-care crisis, recognising that the health problem will eventually become a political one.

This issue may also be starting to bite.

It is far too early to consider whether this poll may be the start of a trend or just a ripple in the ebb and flow of polling, even if the movement in some of the numbers is statistically significant.

Morrison still dominates with very high approval ratings.

He is exalted by Coalition supporters. More than 50 per cent of Labor voters also approve of his performance.

And while Anthony Albanese still manages to keep his head above water, he is a long way ­behind. The increase in Labor’s primary vote at a federal level could be aided by the strong support for Labor premiers in Victoria, Queensland and WA.

Even though Morrison’s ­stellar approval ratings are not translating into greater support for the party in the polling numbers, which should be of some concern for the Liberal Party, there is little doubt that if an election were held on these numbers, a Coalition victory could be virtually assured.

Morrison’s record approval scores were probably unsustainable as the period of abnormal politics since February appears to be now in the process of returning to politics as normal.