Scott Morrison rediscovers leadership momentum with reopening crusade

Once again Scott Morrison has the numbers of the politics of the pandemic turning in his favour after having been against him for months.

Since March last year the politics of Covid-19 have been driven by numbers: the thousands of cases, the months of lockdowns, the hundreds of deaths, the million jobs lost, the tens of millions of vaccine doses delivered and the billions of taxpayers’ funds spent.

The Prime Minister can now see the latest pivotal numbers of the national vaccination rate moving in his favour, after months of giving Anthony Albanese and the premiers the advantage.

That there is now more than half the adult population vaccinated, and hope within sight of reaching the target of 70 and 80 per cent to allow easing of restrictions and limiting of lockdowns, is a recovery for Morrison.

It’s a potential political victory in the shifting shoals of the pandemic, which could strand the Opposition Leader and moderate the Labor premiers’ propensity for lockdowns and restrictions.

Morrison’s challenge for Albanese, federal Labor and the premiers to accept the recommended vaccination rates of 70 and 80 per cent for ending lockdowns is cutting through politically. His crusade for ending border closures, easing restrictions and boosting business has him on the front foot and given him a leadership momentum he’s lacked for months.

Albanese has been able to critically exploit the delayed vaccine rollout against Morrison as the premiers have blamed him for failing to supply enough vaccines and build quarantine facilities.

That was working well for the Opposition Leader and the premiers talking to their own parochial audiences. Morrison was languishing, afraid to criticise the premiers and being damaged by Albanese as Labor established a benchmark for failure on the previous vaccination schedule and performance. But extra vaccines, lower hesitancy as a result of the Delta outbreak in NSW and a wider distribution network have super-surged vaccinations.

Crucially, the Doherty Institute health recommendations of thresholds of 70 and 80 per cent for phased easing of restrictions has given Morrison an achievable target for vaccinations and reopening before Christmas. He will continue to work with the premiers, with an implicit threat of holding back economic support, and he is now targeting Albanese to put pressure on Labor to nominate an acceptable threshold or be seen as the party of lockdowns.

Albanese is trying to stick with the lockdown premiers, not to be seen as in favour of lockdowns, not specifically accepting Morrison’s challenge on 70-80 per cent and hoping it turns into another benchmark Morrison will miss.

But it’s not enough for Labor to hope Morrison makes another mistake as pressure mounts for Albanese to accept basic assumptions on Covid and look beyond lockdown. Ex-leader Bill Shorten has broken with Labor’s reluctance to accept specific targets and nominated 80 per cent as an acceptable threshold for reopening.

National politics is in a new phase and, despite a reluctance to act previously, Morrison has taken the initiative offered by the rate of vaccinations to seek a reprieve. Albanese, who’s done well politically against Morrison, needs to be careful he’s not left behind.