Scott Morrison has kept his head throughout this crisis and has reaped the political rewards by building universal community support for his leadership.
His approval ratings are the highest of any prime minister since Newspolls were first published with the exception of Kevin Rudd. They are now being cemented. The sustained levels of support suggest people have made up their mind about Morrison. His style suits the times. He is avoiding the usual political melodramas and refuses to be baited by fringe debates, even resisting the temptation to give Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews a whack. This has required a new level of political discipline.
On the surface it would appear that the Coalition has not been a beneficiary. On the headline polling numbers the competition would appear to look tight.
There is a counter-narrative that suggests that the Coalition’s vote would be worse if not for Morrison.
The latest Newspoll bears this out. The debate over JobKeeper and the sobering job numbers have not had an impact.
Anthony Albanese would be disappointed that Labor’s storyline, that we are all about to fall off an economic cliff, is not biting.
At the same time, he would be relieved that the scandal-plagued NSW and state divisions have not infected his own leadership.
The conclusion to be drawn from this is that, such is the seriousness of the times and the usual games and scandals, people are not looking at politics through the same prism as they may have been six months ago.
The fringe noise is not affecting the way people are judging Morrison, as people focus on how to pay their bills and keep their jobs. Coronavirus is and will remain the dominant issue.
A real-time test will come this weekend at the Eden-Monaro by-election. But it will be a test for Albanese rather than Morrison. The Labor leader must win it, which is why the party is throwing everything at it.
And that includes the first serious postal vote campaign the Labor Party has run.
The pre-poll and postal votes are now already at record highs.
For the first time in history, this by-election could see more people vote before election day than on it. Coronavirus and the behavioural impacts it has created would likely be a significant contributor. But Labor’s experiment on postal votes appears to already have paid dividends.
At the last election, the Labor campaign office handled just 41 postal votes in Eden Monaro. This was the number of people that called the party office asking to be sent a postal vote form.
The Liberal and Nationals parties, which have traditionally run strong postal vote campaigns, handled thousands purely because they do what Labor doesn’t and sends postal vote forms out to voters. So far, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, the Coalition has handled 2900 postal votes. But Labor has now handled a whopping 3500.
The decision to run a postal vote campaign is a significant change in tactics for Labor. And a smart one. And it appears to be already paying dividends. Whether it makes the difference remains to be seen.
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