Scott Morrison bets the house on wedging Labor

Scott Morrison in question time on Wednesday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Scott Morrison has made a calculated decision that the political risk of overreach is outweighed by the potential for doubt to take root in voters’ minds about Anthony Albanese’s national security credentials.

He is now sowing the seeds of fear over China and Labor’s perceived weakness when compared to the Coalition’s strident foreign policy position.

This week, the Prime Minister sought to broaden the attack to border protection more generally and Labor’s defence spending cuts when last in office.

This is doubtless fertile political ground.

However, he and his Defence Minister, Peter Dutton, have come to this tactical shift late in the electoral cycle. An election is now less than 100 days away.

This has required them to be more aggressive in their approach, as witnessed this week in parliament.

In describing opposition defence spokesman Richard Marles as the Manchurian candidate, Morrison ensured the issue made headlines.

Yet it also compounds an electoral risk that this is perceived as the cynical actions of a government with its back to the wall. That’s certainly the case the Opposition Leader is trying to make in response.

While there is a constituency that will be troubled by the break with bipartisanship, Morrison believes it is fair game. Albanese has made himself the smallest possible target leading into the campaign, which only invites greater scrutiny.

And in national security, whether foreign policy positions on China or mandatory sentencing on gun laws, there is doubtless a potential weakness for Albanese and Labor, with a genuine concern among many in the community over China’s behaviour and longer-term threat.

The point Morrison is making is that his government has taken the most forceful stand against Chinese coercion in defence of sovereignty than just about any other government.

The question he is asking is whether Labor would stand up as convincingly.

For Morrison’s strategy to work, it will require discipline to prosecute the case credibly and without frenzy.

The bottom line is that Albanese and many on his frontbench are vulnerable. But it doesn’t come without risk to the government in taking such a bellicose posture.

Morrison, and Albanese, will also need to carefully balance their attacks with broader expectations from voters as the election nears. Albanese’s strategy has been evident for some time.

Both sides now have engaged deeply negative tactical campaigning.

Excessive negativity will be rejected when voters begin demanding concrete and durable policy solutions to the Covid recovery and their more immediate and pressing issues.

And the appetite for economic, cost of living and social policy plans will likely be greater in this campaign than before, considering what people have been forced to endure for the past two years.

This will presumably favour Morrison, who has a budget up his sleeve, and with Albanese continuing to play small target politics.