Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese are locked in full-campaign mode a year out from the next scheduled election.
Analysis of the leaders’ visits to battleground states between January and May reveal the seats they are aiming at and electorates they want to sandbag.
While Coalition and Labor strategists are preparing for a range of COVID-19 election scenarios, including December, March or May polls, it is clear where the contest will be won and lost.
Morrison and Albanese will devote most of their time outside parliamentary sitting weeks in Queensland, Tasmania, Western Australia and NSW.
The Prime Minister’s post-budget Queensland blitz — to be followed by tours through Victoria and Tasmania this week — reflects Coalition ambitions to maintain its recent dominance in the Sunshine State.
The Liberal National Party priority seats to hold are Flynn, Leichhardt, Dawson, Herbert and Capricornia in central and north Queensland, and Forde, Longman and Brisbane in southeast Queensland.
Between Morrison and Albanese, the leaders have made more than 30 Queensland electorate visits since January, as Labor attempts to claw back seats from the Coalition.
Morrison, whose popular support helped Nationals MPs win key Queensland seats at the 2019 election, will need to spend even more time in the state following the retirements of Ken O’Dowd and George Christensen, and Andrew Laming’s forced departure in Bowman. His job is made harder by Michael McCormack’s inability to cut-through in conservative heartland.
For Labor, Albanese is under pressure to hold seats in NSW. Labor-held seats in NSW including Macquarie, Paterson, Gilmore and Dobell are expected to come under threat from the Coalition.
Morrison has visited Paterson five times this year and focused major energy and infrastructure announcements in the Hunter Valley — coalmining seats that recorded swings against Labor at the last election, fuelled by Bill Shorten’s climate change policies and emissions targets.
In Victoria, Labor is eyeing off Gladys Liu’s seat of Chisholm, while the Coalition want to win back Corangamite. Albanese is also campaigning hard in the Brisbane seat of Griffith and Macnamara in Melbourne, both targets of the Greens.
Voters in the swing electorates of Bass and Braddon should also expect to see a lot of Morrison and Albanese in the coming months, with the northern Tasmanian seats key to forming majority government.
A leading argument inside Coalition ranks is to advance the national vaccination rollout into early next year, allow Australians to enjoy their summer breaks without COVID outbreaks and call a March election by the end of January.
The power of pandemic incumbency, keeping Australians safe and taking a hard line on borders and COVID restrictions, has been proven in the WA, Queensland and Tasmanian elections.
While anything can happen between now and May next year, it is unlikely the government returns for parliament next year.
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