Scorching heatwave to test power grid as demand soars

Victoria’s power supply will face a difficult test on Friday as a heatwave is forecast for the state, along with NSW and the ACT.

Ish Baxter and daughter Chloe, 3, cool off at Port Melbourne. Picture: Aaron Francis

Victoria’s power supply will face a difficult test on Friday as extreme heat and high demand are expected to pile pressure on the state’s electricity grid.

With temperatures set to hit over 40C, in Victoria, the Australian Energy Market Operator forecast a level-two “lack of reserve” in the state for 90 minutes on Friday afternoon as a signal for the market to direct urgent electricity supplies to the grid.

Figures show demand across the national electricity market might exceed 34,000 megawatts on Friday evening for the first time in three years, reflecting the bulk of the population returning to work and challenging weather conditions across the grid.

A top of 43C is expected in Melbourne on Friday, with temperatures as high as 45C set to bake northern parts of Victoria. A forecast provided by AEMO on Thursday expected 748MW of reserve capacity available between 3.30pm and 5pm on Friday compared with 830MW needed.

“We’re monitoring the forecast high temperatures in Victoria over the next few days,” AEMO said in a Twitter post.

“Electricity reserves are sufficient to meet consumers’ expected electricity demand but we’ll continue to monitor conditions.”

“Friday is a significant day for us with elevated fire conditions,” Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp said.

“There’ll be storms that come through with the potential for dry lightning, so again it’s a challenging day.”

Damaging winds and dry lightning in Victoria are also expected to raise the fire threat.

The extreme heat is expected to give way to possible flash flooding and muddy rain over the weekend. The increased humidity combined with extreme heat will create tropical oppressive weather that will make Victoria’s capital feel more like Darwin.

Bushfire-ravaged East Gippsland was already experiencing the effects of the weather change on Thursday evening, as an emergency alert was issued for a blaze that threatened lives and homes.

Rain expected to sweep through Victoria by Saturday and Sunday will not be spread evenly around the state, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, so will be of little help to firefighters.

“We’ll see that rain move across, or showers and storms tending to rain areas. Though it will still be patchy and hit-and-miss, so not everywhere will see that drop of rain,” the bureau’s senior forecaster Diana Eadie told reporters.

The elevated fire conditions have prompted a total fire ban for all state regions except Gippsland and the northeast.

Victorian households were instructed by Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio to turn off unused lights and appliances, shut doors and curtains and keep airconditioning above 26C.

A total fire ban, meanwhile, has been declared for the state’s central and western districts with hot, dangerous and erratic weather forecast across the state over the coming days.

In NSW, emergency services say thousands of firefighters are bracing for yet another weekend of potentially lethal weather conditions. Hot, dry and windy conditions will increase the fire danger across vast swathes of NSW on Friday.

Total fire bans have been declared for the Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges and southern slopes regions, while “very high” fire danger ratings are in place for much of western and southern NSW.

“Friday is the start of worsening conditions,” said Rural Fire Service spokeswoman Angela Burford. “There is a big risk in the southeast corner of NSW and in the Snowy Mountains region.”

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Abrar Shabren said ongoing fires, dry conditions and high temperatures raised the fire risk.

He said temperatures in central and western NSW would surpass 40C this weekend, and would reach 39C in Richmond and 35C in Parramatta on Friday.

In the ACT, firefighters are predicting a 15,000 hectare blaze south of Canberra will creep closer to the capital as temperatures spike and winds increase.

ACT Emergency Services Commissioner Georgina Whelan said hot and windy conditions plus a potential thunderstorm are expected over the weekend.

The fire is nine kilometres from the capital’s southern outskirts and three kilometres from the small village of Tharwa.

Ms Whelan said she expected the fire to be “waking up” on Thursday, describing it as a “living being” that was behaving unpredictably.

With agencies