Red shirts inquiry a ball and chain all the way to polling day

Daniel Andrews will be in political handcuffs all the way to the state election as law and order fiasco hits close to home.

The Andrews government feels older than a one-term administration. Picture: AAP

Daniel Andrews will be in political handcuffs all the way to the November 24 election.

The fraud investigation makes it deeply problematic for him to campaign effectively on law and order, given many of his MPs are being pursued along Spring Street by detectives.

Every Labor MP that took part in the “red shirts” scheme will have to live with the baggage of the investigation, even if they haven’t broken the law.

It hands Liberal leader Matthew Guy a profound advantage, given law and order is at the heart of the Coalition’s attempts to seize power.

The Andrews government feels older than a one-term administration and the police investigation has simply added wrinkles to the carcass. This is the price the government pays for adopting the “whatever it takes’’ strategy. It’s what happens when political parties resort to ruthless (and possibly illegal) machine politics to win elections without fully considering the consequences.

Guy inherited the strategic advantage the moment word broke that police had backed a full-scale investigation.

For many months, Guy and his team have been using community uncertainty about crime rates, including gang activity, to wedge the government.

While some of the Coalition rhetoric has been excessive, it has been overwhelmingly driven by polling.

This polling shows there is deep concern in sections of the community about safety, and the capacity and willingness of the law enforcement agencies to respond to challenges such as gang violence.

The investigation will not harm the position of police chief commissioner Graham Ashton, who has had an awkward relationship with the opposition.

More broadly, it has become increasingly clear that the Premier has an absolute fight on his hands to remain in office.

Labor is not terminal, but its edges are fraying.

It faces an electorate tired of the political classes putting their own interests ahead of the people who voted them in.