Rates, power and China loom over Aston by-election

Cost of living issues loom large over the Aston by-election but both sides of politics are under pressure.

Anthony Albanese, Labor candidate Mary Doyle and supporters at the Bayswater Bowls Club. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Luis Ascui

The lunch rush hour is normally slow-moving in the federal seat of Aston but the Shepparton Food Factory is doing a decent trade as bargain hunters, mainly pensioners or the late middle-aged, trawl the aisles.

This is outer-suburban cost-of-living shopping and Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton – maybe even Philip Lowe – could do worse than watch the process of older people hunting food bargains.

Two kilograms of uncooked pasta shells for $5, 3kg of slow-cooker chicken cacciatore sauce for $11, four Gibbs meat pies for just $5. Maybe, maybe not.

Tucked in the supermarket’s corner – deep in the heart of what was once solid, aspirational Liberal country – is the REDZONE where dustbin items are up for grabs, such as a $1 jar of Maille mustard with a “best before” date of November 22 last year.

Mick Johnson, a 65-year-old retired gas fitter, is out the front of the supermarket, lamenting rising rents for the young, high petrol prices and the broad imposts of a troubled economy.

Retired gas fitter Mick Johnson bargain shopping in the federal seat of Aston. Picture: John Ferguson

“It’s bloody highway robbery,” he says, “it’s knocking a lot of people, even the kids and their mates as well.’’

Across the road at the lottery agency, co-owner Sweta Patel explains what is going on in the mortgage belt in Melbourne’s outer east. “It’s really tough,” she says, outlining how discretionary spending on items such as lottery tickets is under extreme pressure.

“The interest rate is high. These (lottery tickets) are the things they cut first. Everybody has a different opinion. Some are blaming the government and some other things.”

Just about everywhere you turn in the northern end of the seat – 45 minutes east of Melbourne’s CBD and running into the Dandenong Ranges – there are signs of struggle; the Salvos have opened a funky second-hand store ($3 for a Richard Flanagan hardcover bestseller) and across the road, Vinnies. Trade is brisk.

Salvation Army Major Warren Elliott says the pressures on people in teal-free cost-of-living seats such as Aston (2.8 per cent, Liberal) are becoming intense, particularly on older people who have less capacity to finesse their budgets or increase income. Especially women. “The pressures on older women are increasing. It’s really starting to bite,” he said.

One middle-aged woman leaving Vinnies talks of having to use an emergency food bank to get by, rising interest rates and higher power prices smashing her budget. These stories are everywhere.

Enter Albanese and Dutton. Albanese, surrounded by red-shirted supporters, was in Aston on Friday morning to announce unionist Mary Doyle would again be his candidate for the by-election caused by the retirement of ex-Liberal minister Alan Tudge. Dutton must decide very soon whether to campaign hard in the mortgage-belt seat or hide in the mountains north of the Murray.

Retiring Liberal MP Alan Tudge. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

For both, there is opportunity and cost. A Liberal loss in a once baked-in outer-suburban seat could be seriously bad for the federal leader but probably even worse for the party more broadly. If the Liberals lose, they will have just seven federal seats in Victoria, a once unimaginable scenario, as the state continues to shun northern conservatism, however you characterise what that is or means.

There are clear implications for Albanese as well, his government facing the headwinds of deep economic and cost-of-living uncertainty exacerbated by interest rates that are rising like the gears in an old automatic car. Clunk, clunk, clunk.

The southern end of Aston should be prime Liberal turf, house prices rising above $1m in suburban Rowville, near the old VFL Park; gated communities replacing old-style weatherboards in the seat’s northeast. But Tudge was whacked in some of these booths; the sometimes wealthy Lysterfield shedding nearly 15 per cent of his primary vote in 2022. Rowville Heights slashed nearly 16 per cent off his vote.

The electorate’s middle is decidedly aspirational around Westfield Knox, where Aldi features prominently but so do JB Hi-Fi and Godfreys. When Albanese and Dutton start meaningfully campaigning in Aston they will be faced with a near carbon copy of Sydney’s west and parts of Brisbane’s outer suburbs, where interest rates and cost of living are the dominant political discussions 

The median Aston mortgage, according to 2021 census data, is $2000 a month compared with the national average of $1863, nearly a quarter of people are professionals and the median family income of $2194 is almost bang on the rest of the country. While evangelical churches such as CityLife are prominent and play key roles in their communities, there are fewer religious people than the national average, except for Buddhism, the ABS says.

The statistic that really stands out in Aston is ethnicity, where Chinese ancestry is reported by 14.1 per cent of people. There is evidence everywhere of Sino influence. CityLife has its own Mandarin and Cantonese services and YouTube platform on its website. There are businesses across the electorate specifically targeting the Chinese dollar.

The Liberal Party is concerned the Morrison government’s muscular position on China over defence has harmed relations with a community that previously enjoyed the Coalition economic story. The party believes the collapse in relations with China was in the top three issues that cost former treasurer Josh Frydenberg his job in the inner seat of Kooyong.

Victoria’s most senior federal Liberal, Dan Tehan, is helping rebuild the bridges. “We were sent a message from the Chinese community at the last election. You’ve got to engage so we understand their needs and what they are looking for,” he adds.

When the results of the 2022 Victorian election are overlaid in Aston, Labor would have won narrowly with a margin of roughly 500 votes, multiple sources say.

While the by-election will be fought on federal issues, the extent of state Labor pork-barrelling can never be underestimated. It’s ubiquitous. Opposite the Shepparton Food Factory, state Labor member for Bayswater Jackson Taylor is advertising his government’s $250 “power-saving bonus’’ and the sick-pay guarantee for casual workers. Everywhere there are reminders of state Labor investments in schools and public transport.

While the by-election has the potential to embarrass Dutton, senior Liberals are hopeful the economy and the seat’s habit of voting for the Coalition in the past decade will lead to victory by way of people returning to their roots.

The notional frontrunner for Liberal preselection is well-­regarded lawyer and Melbourne City councillor Roshena Campbell, but no one can confidently predict who might win the seat because of the relentless internecine fighting.