Queensland election: One Nation tanks as voters shift to centre

One Nation’s support in regional Queensland has tanked in the wake of the economic destruction wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on Monday. Picture: Dan Peled

One Nation’s support in regional Queensland has tanked in the wake of the economic destruction wrought by the coronavirus pandemic as voters turn to the security of the major parties.

Deb Frecklington’s Liberal National Party appears set to be the key beneficiary of the downturn in support for the minor conservative parties, particularly outside the southeast corner.

The dividend to the LNP has increased the threat to Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government in the regions, where it holds seven seats on margins of less than 5 per cent.

A YouGov poll of more than 2000 Queenslanders published by The Courier-Mail shows both the LNP and Labor have made gains, but the net benefit has boosted the LNP’s two-party-preferred vote in the regions to 53 per cent, up from 52 per cent in 2017.

The poll, conducted between September 24 and October 1, shows the LNP’s primary vote in the regions has risen from 31 per cent in 2017 to 35 per cent, while Labor’s has gone from 30 per cent to 32 per cent.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has lost a third of its support, going from 21 per cent to 14 per cent.

Katter’s Australian Party also lost support, dropping from 8 per cent to 7 per cent.

Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams said the October 31 election was likely to be won or lost in regional Queensland.

“Any premier who gives a perception of governing from Brisbane will be punished,” he said.

“And Deb Frecklington has been stoking the fires that the Palaszczuk government is the government for the southeast only.”

Rural electorates outside of the southeast, particularly away from the larger cities on the coast, have typically been LNP strongholds.

In southwestern Queensland that notion remains; however, after the resurgence of minor parties in the 2017 election the LNP holds only one seat north of Bundaberg: Burdekin, held by Dale Last on a slim margin of 0.8 per cent.

Whereas the southeast is dominated by Labor and the LNP, with the exception of the inner-city Greens seat of Maiwar, voters in the north have more readily voted for minor parties.

KAP, which has three seats in north Queensland, and One Nation, which holds the central Queensland seat of Mirani, performed strongly last election.

The disparity between regional and southeast Queensland was demonstrated at polling booths in 2017 when One Nation won 13 per cent of the statewide vote but a significant 21 per cent in the regions.

The minor party’s how-to-vote cards listing sitting MPs last was as damaging for the LNP in the regions, where it cost them ­Hinchinbrook and a chance in Mirani, and the southeast, where One Nation preferences gave Labor four key LNP-held seats in Brisbane.

Dr Williams said the “COVID lens” that voters would view the election through would be even more complicated in the regions, where the pandemic has affected the fortunes of towns and cities differently.

“The One Nation vote will be down because voters tend to go back to the centre in times of crisis,” Dr Williams said.

“They realise this is serious and they will feel they have to be grown-up about this and go back to the parties with a serious economic plan.”

The Palaszczuk government’s hardline border stance could prove damaging in Cairns, where the tourism industry has been crippled.

Conversely, it could help Labor in towns that are less reliant on tourism and where voters are pleased with the government’s handling of the pandemic.

Dr Williams predicted a resultant “anti-Labor vote” could lead to the loss of the seat of Barron River, held by Emergency Services Minister Craig Crawford, a sentiment reflected by Labor sources.

Those same sources fear the loss of the north Queensland seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa and the Cape York electorate of Cook.

Fledgling minor party North Queensland First, led by ­former LNP Whitsunday MP turned independent Jason ­Costigan, has five candidates running in seats from Mirani, near Mackay, to Cook, on Cape York Peninsula.

“We’re sick and tired of this ‘Brisbane knows best’ mentality and I know there’s increasing voter sentiment out there in which people are fed up with the major parties,” Mr Costigan said.

“The further north you go, the more alienated the voter.

“It’s hard for people down south to get their head around this unless they’ve lived it and breathed it.”