Queensland election: Clive Palmer delivers preferences sting for LNP

United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer. Picture: Richard Gosling

Clive Palmer’s official entry to the Queensland election just made the Liberal National Party’s ­chances of winning the October 31 election that much harder.

In a state where Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party are already wildcards in the contest, Palmer’s United Australia Party adds a third layer of complexity.

At last year’s federal election, on a two-party-preferred basis, 69 per cent of UAP preferences flowed to the LNP and 31 per cent to Labor.

But the underlying danger for the LNP is that the UAP took primary­ votes from disillusioned LNP voters and their preferences ended up flowing to Labor.

Even more problematic for the LNP is that, in the two Queensland seats where Labor finished third, more UAP preferences were directed to the minor party that finished second than to the LNP.

In Maranoa, UAP preferences flowed 60-40 in One Nation’s favour, while in Kennedy, KAP’s totemic leader Bob Katter received­ 69 per cent of UAP preferences.

Although the UAP’s influence at the federal election was minim­al, its potential at the Queensland poll is greater. In the 2017 state election, which Palmer did not contest, the LNP finished in a two-party-preferred battle with One Nation in nine seats and with KAP in four.

While Palmer will amplify an anti-Labor message — a large ­advertising campaign is already planned — his candidates’ preferences could well make it harder for the LNP to win back the central­ Queensland seat of Mirani, held by One Nation.

And Lockyer, west of Brisbane, which the LNP holds from Pauline Hanson’s party by just 4 per cent, could become a danger if UAP takes primary votes from the LNP and those preferences then flow to One Nation.

The fact that UAP voters are prepared to direct their preferences to Labor is even more apparent from the results of the 2015 election, when Campbell Newman’s first-term LNP government was routed.

In the 22 seats contested by the Palmer United Party, as it was then called, 40 per cent of its preferences flowed to Labor and only 19 per cent to the LNP. The other 41 per cent were exhausted.

With the LNP needing a net gain of nine seats to win majority government on October 31, the last thing leader Deb Frecklington needs is to win seats from Labor but lose a few to One Nation, KAP or even the UAP.