Putin’s move: what it means for Australia

Those who think the Ukraine crisis is a distant conflict with limited relevance to Australia should think again. We face a daunting array of consequences.

Those who think the Ukraine crisis is a distant conflict with limited relevance to Australia should think again.

Australia will face a daunting array of strategic, financial and security challenges if Russian leader Vladimir Putin proceeds with a full scale invasion, as looks increasingly likely.

Some of these may be immediate, such as tumbling world markets, soaring oil prices and a potential refugee crisis, but the larger and more dangerous challenges for Australia lie in the medium to long term.

A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine would gravely weaken the Biden administration, undermine NATO’s prestige and potentially embolden China. It will deliver a historic black-eye to the West and it would up-end the post-Cold war order which Australia has been such an integral part of.

While no-one is suggesting that US or NATO forces should militarily defend Ukraine, it will be a hugely unedifying and damaging spectacle to watch Russian forces take over the Ukraine as NATO and US forces sit idle in neighbouring countries.

The damage to Western prestige would be incalculable. NATO would be perceived, rightly or wrongly, as a paper tiger. But of far more concern to Australia is the damage to US prestige and the strategic consequences which could flow from this. The Ukraine crisis has the potential to be politically fatal to Joe Biden because the president ultimately has a losing hand on Ukraine.

Beyond imposing sanctions, he has no power to stop Putin from doing whatever he wants in Ukraine. A full scale Russian invasion may trigger a temporary bump in Biden’s already poor approval rating only because Americans tend to rally around their presidents in times of crisis.

But history shows that Americans don’t like to feel that their country is impotent and they will mark Biden harshly in the longer term if Putin invades.

Of far more concern to Australia is the damage to US prestige and the strategic consequences which could flow from this.

Lyndon B Johnson chose not to run for re-election because the Vietnam War had gone bad. Jimmy Carter ’s hopes of another term were destroyed by the Iranian hostage crisis and George W Bush left office under a cloud because the Iraq war had soured.

A seriously weakened Biden administration is not good news for Australia at a time of growing Chinese hegemony in the Pacific. Australia needs a stronger US presence in the Indo-Pacific and will worry about the White House becoming more isolationist in the face of a Ukrainian foreign policy disaster.

Australia also needs the Biden Administration to be strong enough to push through the crucial early stages of the AUKUS pact to maximise the changes of Australia realising the nuclear submarine fleet that it hopes for.

From the perspective of Beijing, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would only heighten the sense that the US and the west are not willing to fight for what they believe in. While it would be unlikely to convince China to invade Taiwan, it may persuade Beijing to push the envelope on other territorial issues in the South China Sea and elsewhere. This would hurt Australia’s strategic position.

Economically, Australia would be caught in the likely global financial and economic upheavals that would flow from a Russian invasion. Oil prices would be expected to soar, inflation is likely to worsen and world markets would be hit.

This Maxar satellite image released on February 22 shows a new deployment of material support and troops in Krasnyy Oktyabr, a rural area southwest of Belgorod, Russia, less than 20kms to the northwest of the border with Ukraine.

The US believes that a Ukraine invasion could trigger the largest flood of refugees in Europe since almost a million Syrian refugees arrived in 2015. This could easily have flow on effects for other countries beyond Europe. The effect of the Syrian refugee crisis was to bolster far-right parties across Europe.

Back at home, an invasion of the Ukraine could impact the looming federal election. While there will be no policy difference between the major parties over the Ukraine issue, global conflict almost always favours the incumbent government in Australia, potentially helping the Morrison government

Who knows what will unfold in the Ukraine in the days and weeks ahead, but one thing is certain – it will impact Australia.