Push for ANZUS pull-out ‘madness’

Former ambassador to the US Den­nis Richardson has warned a Donald Trump win will see some Australians pushing for the US to pull out of the ANZUS alliance.

‘Should President Trump be re-elected, some of the comment­ariat in Australia are going to start to question whether the alliance is still relevant’: Former ambassador to the US Dennis Richardson. Picture: Nikki Short

Former ambassador to the US Den­nis Richardson has warned that some in Australia will push for the US to pull out of the ANZUS alliance if Donald Trump scrapes back into the White House.

But he said such a view would be “madness”, and cautioned Australians to respect the will of the American people.

“Should President Trump be re-elected, some of the comment­ariat in Australia are going to start to question whether the alliance is still relevant, on the grounds US values will have shifted to such a point that we should be revisiting it,” Mr Richardson said.

“It’s rather odd because if you claim to be committed to democratic values, then you ought to respect a democratic outcome.”

He conceded that many Australians didn’t like Mr Trump, but said many hadn’t liked George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan either.

Mr Richardson said the Coalition­ and Labor, however, would rightly maintain strong support for the alliance through a second Trump term. “I think both the government and the opposition would remain very strong in respect of the allianc­e,” he said. “Their time horizon­ is much greater than four years.”

With the result on a knife-edge and Mr Trump claiming “we already have won it”, Australian strategists warned that a drawn-out battle over the result could embolden China and destabilise the Indo-Pacific region.

Australian Strategic Policy Instit­ute executive director Peter Jennings said a longer-term standoff over the election outcome could present an opportunity to China “and other malign actors across the world”.

“If China wanted to make mischief over Taiwan, for example, that could present real problems for a US that was distracted,” Mr Jennings said.

“A bitterly contested result, particularly one that is being fought out in the courts, just adds to American distraction, which China might try and exploit.”

Mr Jennings said Australian security officials would be closely watching all potential flashpoints, including the South China Sea and around Taiwan. “There is even more of a wildcard in North Korea, which is again a state that is known to want to take advantage in pressure points in US domestic politics to its own advant­age,” he said.

Former Office of National Assessment­s director-general Richard Maude, who was also a lead author of Australia’s 2017 foreign policy white paper, said countries across the region were hoping for an orderly post-election outcome in the US.

“But they will be prepared for other scenarios,” he said. “China is confident that time is on its side, whatever the outcome.”

Mr Maude said China’s faith in its own position was reflected in the language used at the recent fifth plenum of the Chinese Communist Party. “You have a China that is gearing for a tough struggle with the United States whatever the outcome, but believes the balance is shifting its way,” he said.

Australian Institute of International Affairs national presid­ent Allan Gyngell said the dis­array in the US was helpful to China but the long-term strategic impact remained to be seen.

“The Chinese will be feeling good, with television images of boarded-up shopfronts and so on across the US, and the noise and the movement (of the election),” he said. “But it will come out one way or another, and we will see the implications when we find out whether it is Trump or Biden.”